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Call Updates

Nike - NKE - close: 105.38 change: +0.18 stop: 99.89

A widespread market rally and a new all-time high in the DJIA was not enough to inspire new buying in NKE. The stock did post another gain, it's seventh in a row, but shares are looking a little short-term overbought. More conservative traders might want to consider taking an early profit now. We remain bullish on the stock but we're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $107.50-110.00 range.

Picked on February 06 at $101.17
Change since picked: + 4.21
Earnings Date 03/21/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.4 million


OM Group - OMG - close: 51.07 change: -0.15 stop: 47.75

Uh-oh! OMG's relative weakness today is not a good sign. The stock produced another failed rally near the $52.00 level; it's third since February 7th. The trend is still bullish but momentum indicators are beginning to fade. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stop losses. We are aiming for the $54.00-55.00 range. We do not want to hold over the early March earnings.

Picked on January 25 at $ 48.05
Change since picked: + 3.02
Earnings Date 03/02/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 770 thousand


RTI Int. - RTI - close: 82.70 change: +0.82 stop: 79.75

RTI posted another 1% gain but shares closed off their best levels of the session. Today's action looks like another short-term failed rally and on big volume, which could be telling us that RTI is seeing distribution. Technically the early morning rally is a breakout over its one-week trend of lower highs but we remain cautious here. The P&F chart points to a $105 target. Our target is the $88.00-90.00 range.

Picked on January 31 at $ 81.75
Change since picked: + 0.95
Earnings Date 03/12/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 737 thousand

Put Updates

Harley Davidson - HOG - cls: 68.91 chg: +1.06 stop: 70.11

The market-wide rally fueled some short covering and/or bargain hunting in HOG today. The stock rose 1.5% albeit on below average volume. Today's gain puts HOG above its 10-dma and shares are now challenging the five-week trendline of resistance. We would wait for a new drop under $68 before considering new positions. We are aiming for the $63.00-62.00 range but more conservative traders may want to exit early near $65.00.

Picked on February 11 at $ 67.80
Change since picked: + 1.11
Earnings Date 04/19/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.3 million


MarineMax - HZO - close: 22.68 change: -0.06 stop: 24.25

HZO continues to show relative weakness and today's failure to join the market rally is good news for the bears. The stock produced its third session inside a relatively narrow trading range. Readers can use a failed rally under $23.75 or a new low under $22.35 as an entry point to buy puts. We do not see any changes from our weekend comments. Our target is the $20.25-20.00 range.

Picked on February 11 at $ 22.59
Change since picked: + 0.09
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 300 thousand


Meritage - MTH - close: 42.86 change: +0.50 stop: 45.26

Positive comments from Fed chairman Bernanke about the economy helped the homebuilders. The DJUSHB home construction index bounced for a 0.9% gain. Shares of MTH rose 1.1% but closed off its best levels of the day. If shares turn lower readers can open new positions (maybe under $42.50 or $42.00). Traders should expect some sort of bounce near $40.00 but we suspect it would be temporary. The P&F chart has produced a triple-breakdown sell signal with a $37.00 target. We are aiming for the $37.50-37.00 range.

Picked on February 11 at $ 41.99
Change since picked: + 0.87
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 473 thousand


Sealed Air - SEE - close: 65.74 chg: +0.69 stop: 65.26

Market strength continues to fuel a bounce from support in SEE. Nimble traders may want to consider new bullish positions if SEE can breakout to a new relative high over $66.50. If the stock doesn't pull back soon we'll drop it as a bearish candidate. Fortunately, we're still on the sidelines waiting for a breakdown under significant support at the 50-dma. Our suggested trigger to buy puts is at $63.75. If triggered our target is the $60.15-60.00.

Picked on February xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 05/02/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 281 thousand

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)


Google - GOOG - cls: 465.93 change: + 6.83 stop: n/a

Today's bounce in GOOG is bad news for our strangle positions. While it is encouraging to see the rally stall under technical resistance at the 10-dma and the 100-dma, we just don't have enough time to let GOOG slowly meander lower. We have two days left for February options. Our adjusted target for the February $470 put (GOP-NG) is our breakeven point at $17.40. Our adjusted target for the $450 put (GOP-NJ) is at $6.00. In our original play description we suggested two different potential strangle strategies. One involved the February $530 call (GOP-BW) and the February $470 put (GOP-NG). This strategy had an estimated cost of $17.40. The second strangle strategy involved the February $550 call (GOP-BY) and the February $450 put (GOP-NJ). This second strategy had an estimated cost of $8.70.

Picked on January 28 at $495.84
Change since picked: -29.91
Earnings Date 01/31/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.2 million


United Parcel Srv. - UPS - cls: 75.02 chg: +0.63 stop: n/a

There is no change from our previous comments on UPS. At this point our strangle in UPS is pretty much dead. The stock has failed to move in spite of a very negative earnings report and some significant swings in crude oil. Our target has been adjusted to breakeven at $1.65. We suggested the February $75 call (UPS-BO) and the February $70 put (UPS-NN).

Picked on January 28 at $ 72.49
Change since picked: + 2.53
Earnings Date 01/30/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.9 million

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