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Call Updates

Diageo - DEO - close: 82.23 change: +1.19 stop: 78.45

Thursday was a strong day for the alcoholic drink producers. One of the big stories driving momentum was speculation that Anheuser-Busch (BUD) was in talks to merge with its European rival InBev. Meanwhile Molson Coors reported earnings that were better than expected. Speaking of earnings it looks like DEO reported much earlier than expected with an announcement today regarding the first half of its fiscal year. DEO said they did well in emerging markets and grew market share in the U.S. DEO also raised their profit forecast. The stock responded to all of this news with a gap higher to open at $83.17. Shares traded off the best levels of the day but still closed up 1.4%. We would look for a dip near $81.00 to close the gap as a new entry point. Our short-term target is the $84.75-85.00 range although more aggressive traders may want to aim higher. FYI: The P&F chart points to an $89 target.

Picked on February 14 at $ 81.04
Change since picked: + 1.19
Earnings Date 02/15/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 452 thousand

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Nike - NKE - close: 105.51 change: +0.13 stop: 99.89

NKE just posted its eight gain in a row but it definitely looks like momentum has stalled. Shares are way overdue for a dip. More conservative traders might want to consider taking an early profit now. We remain bullish on the stock but we're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $107.50-110.00 range.

Picked on February 06 at $101.17
Change since picked: + 4.34
Earnings Date 03/21/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.4 million

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OM Group - OMG - close: 51.18 change: +0.11 stop: 47.75

We do not see any changes from our previous comments on OMG. The trend is still bullish but momentum indicators are beginning to fade. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stop losses. We are aiming for the $54.00-55.00 range. We do not want to hold over the early March earnings.

Picked on January 25 at $ 48.05
Change since picked: + 3.13
Earnings Date 03/02/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 770 thousand

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RTI Int. - RTI - close: 83.67 change: +0.97 stop: 79.75

Steel and metal-related stocks turned in a positive day for the bulls. Shares of RTI rose 1.1% and look ready to challenge the recent highs under $85.00. The P&F chart points to a $105 target. Our target is the $88.00-90.00 range.

Picked on January 31 at $ 81.75
Change since picked: + 1.92
Earnings Date 03/12/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 737 thousand

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Rio Tinto - RTP - cls: 221.66 chg: +0.51 stop: 212.45

RTP did not see much follow through higher today after yesterday's bullish breakout. The lack of follow through might be suggesting that shares will pull back first to consolidate some of the recent gains. We would still consider new positions here but a better entry point would be a bounce somewhere in the $215-220 region. Technical indicators on both the weekly and daily charts are turning positive. RTP will probably have some resistance at its November 2006 highs near $230 but our target is the $237.50-240.00 range. FYI: RTP is a high-dollar stock and is bound to see some bigger swings (volatility). Consider this a more aggressive play.

Picked on February 14 at $221.15
Change since picked: + 0.51
Earnings Date 02/01/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 437 thousand

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Sears Holding - SHLD - cls: 186.11 chg: +2.47 stop: 176.45

Retail stocks continued to inch higher and the pull back in crude oil certainly didn't hurt matters. Shares of SHLD out performed its peers and the broader market with a 1.3% gain. We do not see any changes from our new play description from Wednesday night. Readers can choose to buy calls now or wait for a potential dip back toward the $180-182 region. The Point & Figure chart points to a $228 target. We are aiming for the $195.00-200.00 range. We do not want to hold over the mid March earnings.

Picked on February 14 at $183.64
Change since picked: + 2.47
Earnings Date 03/15/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million
 

Put Updates

Harley Davidson - HOG - cls: 69.09 chg: +0.18 stop: 70.11

Bears may want to turn defensive here. HOG has continued to bounce and shares look poised to rally toward the $70.00 level. The stock is still testing (and apparently in the process of breaking) the five-week trendline of resistance. We would wait for a new drop under $68 before considering new positions. We are aiming for the $63.00-62.00 range but more conservative traders may want to exit early near $65.00.

Picked on February 11 at $ 67.80
Change since picked: + 1.29
Earnings Date 04/19/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.3 million

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MarineMax - HZO - close: 22.71 change: +0.03 stop: 24.25

There is no change from our previous updates on HZO. The stock's failure to join the market rally is good news for the bears. This is the fourth session inside a relatively narrow trading range. Readers can use a failed rally under $23.75 or a new low under $22.35 as an entry point to buy puts. We do not see any changes from our weekend comments. Our target is the $20.25-20.00 range.

Picked on February 11 at $ 22.59
Change since picked: + 0.12
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 300 thousand

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Meritage - MTH - close: 43.55 change: +0.69 stop: 45.26

The homebuilders continue to rebound after last week's big sell-off. The overall trend in MTH still looks bearish but the stock is quickly approaching what should be short-term resistance near $44.00. We would wait for a show of weakness before considering new positions. The P&F chart has produced a triple-breakdown sell signal with a $37.00 target. We are aiming for the $37.50-37.00 range.

Picked on February 11 at $ 41.99
Change since picked: + 1.56
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 473 thousand

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Sealed Air - SEE - close: 65.74 chg: +0.69 stop: 65.26

There is no change from our previous update on SEE. Market strength continues to fuel a bounce from support in SEE. Nimble traders may want to consider new bullish positions if SEE can breakout to a new relative high over $66.50. If the stock doesn't pull back soon we'll drop it as a bearish candidate. Fortunately, we're still on the sidelines waiting for a breakdown under significant support at the 50-dma. Our suggested trigger to buy puts is at $63.75. If triggered our target is the $60.15-60.00.

Picked on February xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 05/02/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 281 thousand
 

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

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Google - GOOG - cls: 461.47 change: - 4.46 stop: n/a

Time is almost up for our February options on GOOG. If there is any value left in the put options tomorrow is our day to exit. In our original play description we suggested two different potential strangle strategies. One involved the February $530 call (GOP-BW) and the February $470 put (GOP-NG). This strategy had an estimated cost of $17.40. The second strangle strategy involved the February $550 call (GOP-BY) and the February $450 put (GOP-NJ). This second strategy had an estimated cost of $8.70.

Picked on January 28 at $495.84
Change since picked: -34.37
Earnings Date 01/31/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.2 million

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United Parcel Srv. - UPS - cls: 74.48 chg: -0.12 stop: n/a

There is no change from our previous comments on UPS. At this point our strangle in UPS is pretty much dead. The stock has failed to move in spite of a very negative earnings report and some significant swings in crude oil. Our target has been adjusted to breakeven at $1.65. We suggested the February $75 call (UPS-BO) and the February $70 put (UPS-NN).

Picked on January 28 at $ 72.49
Change since picked: + 2.41
Earnings Date 01/30/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.9 million
 

Dropped Calls

None
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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