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Call Updates

Apache - APA - close: 70.47 chg: +0.07 stop: 67.95

Crude oil continued to rise on Friday but oil stocks pared their gains as oil slipped from its intraday highs. Shares of APA hit $71.37 Friday morning but gave back almost all of its gains. We would look for a dip or bounce in the $69-70 range as a new entry point. Our target is the $74.50-75.00 range. The P&F chart is much more bullish with a projected price target of $94.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the April calls.

BUY CALL APR 65.00 APA-DM open interest=3121 current ask $6.70
BUY CALL APR 70.00 APA-DN open interest=7940 current ask $3.10
BUY CALL APR 75.00 APA-DO open interest=6293 current ask $1.10

Picked on February 22 at $ 70.40
Change since picked: + 0.07
Earnings Date 05/03/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.3 million

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Boeing - BA - close: 90.28 change: -0.30 stop: 87.99

BA spent the last week consolidating sideways. This isn't too surprising since the DJIA peaked on Tuesday and sank the rest of the week. Overall the trend remains the same for BA. Shares look poised to breakout over resistance near $92.00 and the Point & Figure chart continues to look bullish with a triple-top breakout buy signal and a $107 target. We are sticking to our plan and suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $92.51. If triggered our target is the $99.50-100.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to jump in early on a bounce near $90 or a move over $92.00.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the April calls.

BUY CALL APR 85.00 BA-DQ open interest= 9 current ask $6.90
BUY CALL APR 90.00 BA-DR open interest=940 current ask $3.30
BUY CALL APR 95.00 BA-DS open interest=454 current ask $1.20

Picked on February xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 05/02/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.9 million

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Diageo - DEO - close: 82.06 change: +0.64 stop: 78.45

DEO displayed some relative strength on Friday. Shares posted a 0.79% gain on relatively strong volume. Overall the trend remains bullish given the breakout over resistance near $80 a couple of weeks ago. We were expecting a stronger pull back toward the 10-dma or the $80 level, which could still happen if the markets see more profit taking next week. Our short-term target is the $84.75-85.00 range although more aggressive traders may want to aim higher. FYI: The P&F chart points to an $89 target.

Suggested Options:
We would consider the April calls but only if DEO gives us another entry point on a dip near the 10-dma.

Picked on February 14 at $ 81.04
Change since picked: + 1.02
Earnings Date 02/15/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 452 thousand

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Freeport McMoran - FCX - cls: 59.91 chg: +0.35 stop: 55.85

Gold and copper futures turned in some impressive gains this last week. That lifted the mining sector and shares of FCX broke out over resistance near $59.00. We were triggered at $59.25. Readers can choose to buy calls now or wait for a potential dip into the $59.00-58.00 region. Our target is the $64.00-65.00 range. Thursday's rally produced a new triple-top breakout buy signal on the P&F chart with a $75 target.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the April calls.

BUY CALL APR 55.00 FCX-DK open interest= 232 current ask $6.70
BUY CALL APR 60.00 FCX-DL open interest=2455 current ask $3.60

Picked on February 22 at $ 59.25
Change since picked: + 0.66
Earnings Date 04/17/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.5 million

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Chinese iShares - FXI - close: 105.40 chg: -2.60 stop: 103.99

The FXI suddenly and unexpectedly hit some profit taking on Friday. The ishares lost 2.4% without any clear catalyst. Chinese markets were down on Friday but they were down fractionally after trading near new highs. FXI's sell-off pulled the ETF toward technical support at the 50-dma, where bulls have bought the dip several times in the past. Monday will be an important test to see if traders buy the dip again. We would wait for a new rebound over $106.50 before considering new positions. Our target is the $114.00-115.00 range.

Suggested Options:
We are not suggesting new positions in FXI at this time. Wait for a bounce.

Picked on February 18 at $106.90
Change since picked: - 1.50
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.9 million

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Research In Motion - RIMM - cls: 140.00 chg: -0.30 stop: 132.39

The upward momentum in RIMM stalled a bit with a minor pull back on Thursday and Friday last week. Overall shares look poised to move higher but the stock is facing potential resistance in the $142.50-145.00 region. If the NASDAQ or tech stocks in general see any profit taking this week then RIMM could easily dip toward $137-135. More conservative traders might want to consider tightening their stop losses toward $135. We would wait for some sign of strength before considering new call positions. Our target is the $149.00-150.00 range. The P&F chart has reversed into a buy signal and points to a $188 target (last week the target was $176). FYI: RIMM can be a volatile stock. The options tend to be expensive. We consider this an aggressive, higher-risk play.

Suggested Options:
If RIMM provides another entry point we'd use the April calls. March options expire in three weeks.

Picked on February 20 at $140.51
Change since picked: - 0.51
Earnings Date 03/22/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 9.1 million

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Rio Tinto - RTP - cls: 230.37 chg: +4.79 stop: 216.99 *new*

Gold and copper futures surged higher this past week and the commodity strength fueled a rally in the miners. Shares of RTP bounced sharply from Wednesday's lows as traders bought the dip near its 10-dma. The stock is now challenging the November 2006 highs around $230. Overall the trend looks bullish but more conservative traders might want to consider locking in some profits given the $9 move from our picked price. We warned readers that RTP could find resistance near $230 and that traders should probably expect a pull back on the initial test. A pull back into the $224-225 region might be a new entry point. Our target is the $237.50-240.00 range. The P&F chart has produced a double-top breakout buy signal with a $298 target. FYI: RTP is a high-dollar stock and is bound to see some bigger swings (volatility) and this makes the options somewhat "expensive". Consider this a more aggressive play. Please note that we're adjusting the stop loss to $216.99.

Suggested Options:
If RTP provides another entry point we'd suggest the April calls.

Picked on February 14 at $221.15
Change since picked: + 9.22
Earnings Date 02/01/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 437 thousand

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Sears Holding - SHLD - cls: 187.65 chg: -2.32 stop: 179.89

After a strong week shares of SHLD hit some profit taking on Friday and shares lost 1.2%. We warned readers to expect some resistance and profit taking after the stock traded near $190. Right now we're expecting a pull back toward the 10-dma near $185.75 or deeper near $185. Next week the retail sector could see some volatility with several high-profile retailers reporting earnings. More conservative traders might want to exit early to avoid any sell-offs sparked by negative earnings news in the sector. We hesitate to suggest new positions at this time but a bounce from the 10-dma or the $185 level could be a new entry point. Our target is the $195.00-200.00 range. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $234 target.

Suggested Options:
We are not suggesting new positions at this time but see our above comments for potential entry points.

Picked on February 14 at $183.64
Change since picked: + 4.01
Earnings Date 03/15/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million
 

Put Updates

MarineMax - HZO - close: 23.07 change: -0.01 stop: 24.25

The overall trend in HZO continues to look bearish but shares are not moving very fast and the lack of movement over the last two weeks is not good if you are holding options. We are not suggesting new positions although a drop under $22.00 would look like a new entry point to buy puts. More conservative traders might want to exit early or tighten their stops toward $24.00 or $23.75 to reduce their risk. The P&F chart continues to point to a $2.00 target. Our target is the $20.25-20.00 range.

Suggested Options:
We are not suggesting new positions in HZO.

Picked on February 11 at $ 22.59
Change since picked: + 0.48
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 300 thousand

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Meritage - MTH - close: 40.81 change: -0.96 stop: 44.15 *new*

Homebuilders continued to sell-off on Friday. The DJUSHB index lost 1.9%. Shares of MTH slipped 2.3% and broke down to a new relative low. Bulls bought the initial dip near the $40 level but the bounce was struggling by lunchtime. We would not be surprised to see another bounce attempt next week but watch for it to fail in the $42.00-43.00 range. We are adjusting our stop loss to $44.15, since the $44.00 level held as overhead resistance last week. The P&F chart has produced a triple-breakdown sell signal with a $35.00 target. We are aiming for the $37.50-37.00 range.

Suggested Options:
If MTH provides another entry point we'd suggest the April puts.

Picked on February 11 at $ 41.99
Change since picked: - 1.18
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 473 thousand
 

Strangle Updates

None
 

Dropped Calls

Allegheny Tech - ATI - cls: 107.81 change: +1.33 stop: 102.49

Target achieved. Investors responded positively to news that ATI was raising its capital spending and plans to expand its titanium sponge production. The stock surged out of the gate on Friday morning and hit an intraday high of $110 before paring its gains. Our target was the $109.00-110.00 range.

Picked on February 18 at $102.59
Change since picked: + 5.22
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.8 million

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OM Group - OMG - close: 53.11 change: -0.06 stop: 49.75

We are suggesting an early exit in OMG. The stock is up over five points from where we suggested it and we'd hate to see it all evaporate if the broader market continues lower. Overall the trend in OMG is still bullish. Nimble traders might want to consider new bullish positions on a dip or bounce near $52.00 or even the $51.00 level but we'd try and play with a tight stop loss on any new positions. If you do open new plays you'll need to adjust your target. Currently the P&F chart points at a $72 target but we see potential resistance at $55 and near $60. We had been aiming for the $54-55 range but we are happy to exit early right here.

Picked on January 25 at $ 48.05
Change since picked: + 5.06
Earnings Date 03/02/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 770 thousand
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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