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Call Updates

Allegheny Tech. - ATI - cls: 97.06 chg: -3.62 stop: 93.95

We have reached the "moment of truth" with our ATI play and strategy to buy the dip near support. The markets continued to sell-off on Friday and shares of ATI slipped almost 3.6% and dipped toward rising, technical support at its 50-dma. We were suggesting that readers buy calls on a pull back into the $97.50-96.00 range. Most quote services will list the intraday low on Friday was $95.95 but this looks like a bad tick (check an intraday chart). We see ATI closing near its lows for the day just under $97.00. Our official entry point was at $97.49. More conservative traders may want to watch for a bounce before initiating any bullish positions. If the 50-dma fails to hold as support ATI appears to have additional support in the $96.00-95.00 zone. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops toward $95.00. Our short-term target will be the $104.00-105.00 range. More aggressive traders can aim for the $109-110 zone. FYI: This play is probably not for the faint of heart. Technical traders will note that the weekly chart for ATI has produced a very large bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. These types of patterns are normally seen as a bearish reversal!

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the April calls. Our suggested entry range to buy calls is in the $97.50-96.00 range above its 50-dma.

BUY CALL APR 95 ATI-DS open interest=2552 current ask $7.60
BUY CALL APR 100 ATI-DT open interest=2745 current ask $5.10
BUY CALL APR 105 ATI-DA open interest=2196 current ask $3.20

Picked on March 02 at $ 97.49
Change since picked: - 0.43
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.7 million

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Cigna - CI - close: 141.01 chg: -1.68 stop: 134.35

CI has produced another short-term failed rally near $143 and its simple 10-dma. The stock closed near its lows on Friday and definitely looks poised to move lower. Nimble traders might actually want to try and scalp two or three points while we wait for a dip into our suggested entry range to buy calls. Currently the plan is to buy calls on a pull back into the $135.00-137.50 range. Shares of CI appear to have support near $137.50 and again near its rising 50-dma around $135. Our official trigger to open plays will be $137.49 but we strongly suggest that readers wait for the dip to end and signs of a bounce to begin before opening positions. If triggered our target is the $145.00-146.00 range. We are suggesting a stop loss under the 50-dma.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the April calls. Our suggested entry range to buy calls is in the $137.50-135.00 range above its 50-dma.

BUY CALL APR 135 CD-DG open interest=1663 current ask $ 9.00
BUY CALL APR 140 CD-DH open interest= 634 current ask $ 5.50

Picked on February xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 05/09/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 759 thousand

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Freeport McMoran - FCX - cls: 54.63 chg: -1.59 stop: 51.99

Friday's pull back looks like another entry point to buy calls. However, it's also a crucial test of its new trendline of support. We admit that this looks like a dangerous spot to buy calls given the bearish breakdown under its simple 200-dma and the big bearish engulfing candlestick pattern on its weekly chart. More conservative traders may want to sit this one out and just wait and watch. We are looking for a bounce near $54.00 but if you feel it's necessary some traders may want to tighten their stops toward $53.00 or near the mid-February lows. It's worth noting that another analyst firm upgraded FCX on Friday. This is the second upgrade for the stock in the last week. Deutsche Bank raised their rating to a "buy" with a $69 target. FCX is in our suggested entry range to buy calls but we'd strongly suggest waiting for a bounce first. Our target is the $62.50-65.00 range. We do not want to hold over FCX's mid-April earnings report. FYI: The April calls have seen a huge increase in open interest in just the last few days.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the April calls. Our suggested entry range to buy calls is in the $55.25-54.00 range.

BUY CALL APR 55 FCX-DK open interest=5738 current ask $3.60
BUY CALL APR 60 FCX-DL open interest=6364 current ask $1.75

Picked on March 01 at $ 55.24
Change since picked: - 0.61
Earnings Date 04/17/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.5 million
 

Put Updates

MarineMax - HZO - close: 22.32 change: -0.51 stop: 23.75

Friday's decline (-2.2%) and the late afternoon failed rally in HZO has temporarily renewed our faith in the stock's bearish trend. We would still wait for a breakdown under short-term support at the $22.00 level before buying new put positions but that opportunity could come as soon as Monday. The P&F chart continues to point to a $2.00 target. Our target is the $20.25-20.00 range. FYI: It may be worth noting that HZO has a high amount of short interest. The latest data (February) puts short interest at almost 24% of the stock's 16.8 million-share float. That definitely increases the risk of a short squeeze should the stock unexpectedly rally and breakout higher.

Suggested Options:
We would wait for a new decline under $22.00 before considering new positions. We like the April puts. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. Note - we currently don't see an active bid or ask on the puts. This may be a temporary (weekend) quote error.

BUY PUT APR 22.50 HZO-PX open interest= 8 current ask $ ?.??
BUY PUT APR 20.00 HZO-PD open interest= 3 current ask $ ?.??

Picked on February 11 at $ 22.59
Change since picked: - 0.27
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 300 thousand
 

Strangle Updates

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Dropped Calls

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Dropped Puts

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Dropped Strangles

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