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Call Updates

Cigna - CI - close: 140.09 chg: +0.14 stop: 134.75

There is still no significant change in shares of CI. The stock has been trading almost flat, hovering on either side of $140, for about six days in a row. Eventually rising support at its 50-dma is going to catch up with the share price. We're going to stick to our plan for now but with option expiration coming up this weekend don't be surprised to see CI continue to trade sideways. Our suggested entry range to buy calls is the $137.50-135.00 range. The newsletter will use a trigger at $137.49 to "open" the play. The stock should have support near $135 and its rising 50-dma (now at $135.70). We suggest that readers watch the initial pull back for signs of a bounce before initiating positions. If triggered our target is the $145.00-146.00 range. We are suggesting a stop loss under the 50-dma.

Picked on February xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 05/09/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 759 thousand


Carbo Ceramics - CRR - cls: 45.38 chg: -0.17 stop: 42.45

The morning dip in CRR to $44.78 looks like another entry point to buy calls. We do not see any changes from our weekend comments. CRR is a relative strength play. Helping fuel the rally are rumors that CRR may be a takeover target. Our target is the $59.75-60.00 range. FYI: CRR might qualify as an oil services stock. The most recent data (February) puts short interest at over 15% of CRR's 18.7 million-share float. That's a relatively high degree of short interest and raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on March 11 at $ 45.55
Change since picked: - 0.17
Earnings Date 05/03/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 458 thousand


ESSEX Prop. - ESS - cls: 129.83 chg: +0.48 stop: 125.95

Our bullish call play in ESS is now open. The stock broke out over resistance near $130 on an intraday basis. The intraday high was $130.38. Our suggested trigger to buy calls was at $130.26. Now that the play is open our target is the $137.00-140 zone where we expect ESS will encounter some resistance although its first challenge is the 10-dma nearing $131.00. At this point in the play we would either look for a dip and bounce near $128.50 or a new move over $130.25 before initiating new positions.

Picked on March 12 at $130.26
Change since picked: - 0.43
Earnings Date 02/07/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 196 thousand


Noble Energy - NBL - close: 57.90 chg: -0.70 stop: 55.75

Crude oil suffered some profit taking today and NBL followed it lower. Shares of NBL lost 1.1% and they're currently testing the 10-dma. We would not be surprised to see a dip towards $57.00. We would use a dip or a bounce in the $57 area as a new entry point to buy calls. More aggressive traders may want to put their stops under $55.00. We do expect some resistance near $60.00 but our target is the $62.00-62.50 range.

Picked on March 06 at $ 58.02
Change since picked: - 0.12
Earnings Date 05/24/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million


New Century - NEW - close: 1.65 chg: -1.56 stop: n/a

If anyone decided to pursue our lottery ticket high-risk/high-reward play in NEW then today's decline offered a better entry point. Yet even today's decline is up for discussion. The NYSE halted trading pending a "news" event so we can't see in the time and sales data where NEW ever traded at $1.66 during normal hours today. Most chart and quote services are showing a gap down to $1.66 with over 1.5 million shares trading in volume today. If you missed our weekend play description we listed NEW as a call play with the expectation that the company would either file for bankruptcy or announce that it's being acquired in the next few weeks. Today's news might hastened the bankruptcy event. NEW disclosed that it had received letters from all of its lenders that they were discontinuing their financing for the company. Remember, this is very high risk and odds are good that the company could go under and our calls would be worthless.

Picked on March 11 at $ 3.21
Change since picked: - 1.56
Earnings Date 11/02/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.7 million


Molson Coors - TAP - cls: 86.73 chg: +0.38 stop: 83.49

TAP continues to show relative strength. The stock rose 0.44% and briefly traded over resistance near $87.00. We're still on the sidelines and suggesting readers use a trigger to buy calls at $87.15. More conservative traders may want to wait for a new all-time high over $88.00 before considering new positions. Our target is the $92.50-95.00 range.

Picked on March xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 05/17/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 782 thousand

Put Updates

Ashland Inc. - ASH - cls: 63.93 chg: +0.14 stop: 67.55

ASH traded sideways under short-term resistance all day except for a very brief spike late this afternoon. The stock spiked to $64.83 before quickly reversing back under $64 and its 10-dma. This might be the failed rally we're looking for and if it is then ASH should continue lower tomorrow. More conservative traders may want a tighter stop loss. Our target is the $60.50-60.00 range.

Picked on March 04 at $ 65.82
Change since picked: - 1.89
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 770 thousand


Bausch Lomb - BOL - cls: 51.12 change: -0.38 stop: 52.51

BOL slipped to a 0.7% loss and is inching closer toward support near its 200-dma and the $50 level. We don't see any changes from our weekend comments. We're sticking to our plan and waiting for a breakdown under support near $50.00. We're suggesting a trigger to buy puts at $49.49. More conservative traders may want to wait for a decline under $49.00 to lessen the risk that we'll be triggered on an intraday spike lower. If we are triggered at $49.49 our target will be the $44.00-42.50 range.

Picked on March xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 00/00/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 678 thousand


Harman Intl - HAR - close: 98.02 change: -0.55 stop: 102.01

It looks like HAR is beginning to roll over. This might be a new entry point for puts. We would use a failed rally from here or under the $100 level as a new bearish entry point to buy puts on HAR. Our target is the $92.50-90.00 range near its simple 200-dma. FYI: The P&F chart points to a very bearish $80 target.

Picked on March 04 at $ 97.49
Change since picked: + 0.53
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 614 thousand


MarineMax - HZO - close: 21.62 change: -0.43 stop: 23.06

HZO has produced a bearish failed rally under short-term technical resistance at its 10-dma today. The stock under performed the market with a 1.9% loss albeit on low volume. We remain bearish on the stock. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stop losses. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $20.25-20.00 range. FYI: It may be worth noting that HZO has a high amount of short interest. The latest data (February) puts short interest at almost 24% of the stock's 16.8 million-share float. That definitely increases the risk of a short squeeze should the stock unexpectedly rally and breakout higher.

Picked on February 11 at $ 22.59
Change since picked: - 0.97
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 300 thousand

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