Cigna - CI - close: 137.07 chg: -3.02 stop: 134.75
The market-wide sell-off on Tuesday was strong enough to knock shares of CI out of its narrow trading range near $140. CI dipped into our suggested entry range of $137.50-135.00. Our official trigger was $137.49. However, we have and still strongly suggest that readers wait for signs of a bounce before initiating new positions. The market sell-off was very sharp and doesn't look like it's over yet. CI looks poised to test support near $135 and its 50-dma. Be patient and wait for the rebound before jumping in. Our target is the $145.00-146.00 range.
Picked on March 13 at $137.49
Carbo Ceramics - CRR - cls: 44.96 chg: -0.42 stop: 42.45
CRR endured the market's weakness by showing a little more strength than most of its peers. The stock slipped 0.9% versus a 1.4% pull back in the oil sector and a 2% drop in the S&P 500. The market weakness doesn't look like it's over yet so we would watch for a dip in CRR near $44.00 as a new entry point. However, we would definitely wait for signs of a bounce before initiating positions. Our target is the $59.75-60.00 range. FYI: CRR might qualify as an oil services stock. The most recent data (February) puts short interest at over 15% of CRR's 18.7 million-share float. That's a relatively high degree of short interest and raises the risk of a short squeeze.
Picked on March 11 at $ 45.55
ESSEX Prop. - ESS - cls: 127.71 chg: -2.12 stop: 125.95
Danger! The lackluster rally near $130 yesterday and today's reversal on strong volume looks dangerous for the bulls. The bad news is that we were triggered on the intraday strength on Monday. Now it looks like ESS is poised to drop back toward support near $125 and its rising 200-dma. We are not suggesting new positions at this time and more conservative traders may want to exit immediately to cut losses. Nimble traders can keep an eye on the $125 zone and consider a bounce near $125 as a more aggressive entry point to buy calls but we'd use a tight stop loss if you do.
Picked on March 12 at $130.26
Noble Energy - NBL - close: 56.26 chg: -1.64 stop: 55.75
Our bullish play in NBL is not shaping up very well. Even though Lehman reiterated their "over weight" rating on the stock today it didn't help. Shares sold off, losing 2.8%, and appear to be breaking the bullish channel. The selling did stall near short-term support at $56.00 but if there is any follow through tomorrow we'll be stopped out.
Picked on March 06 at $ 58.02
New Century - NEWC - close: 0.85 chg: -0.35 stop: n/a
We could be looking at the end of NEW. The company has disclosed a subpoena regarding a criminal probe and all of its lenders have cancelled their credit. The NYSE decided to delist the stock, which is now being quoted on pink sheets (www.pinksheets.com) with a new symbol (NEWC). It now looks like odds that NEW will file bankruptcy are higher than odds the company will be bought out. We're not suggesting new positions. If you did want to speculate we'd use the $2.50 calls. At this time we're going to keep an eye on NEW through the end of the week. If nothing happens we might just drop it. Please see our weekend play description for more details behind our strategy.
Picked on March 11 at $ 3.21
Molson Coors - TAP - cls: 85.93 chg: -0.80 stop: 83.49
Shares of TAP actually held up relatively well considering the widespread weakness today. We're still sitting on the sidelines. and suggesting readers use a trigger to buy calls at $87.15. More conservative traders may want to wait for a new all-time high over $88.00 before considering new positions. Our target is the $92.50-95.00 range.
Picked on March xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Ashland Inc. - ASH - cls: 62.76 chg: -1.17 stop: 67.55
Yesterday's failed rally has turned into a reversal with today's 1.8% loss. The stock closed at its lows for the session, which is usually bearish for the next day. ASH should challenge its recent lows soon and we're expecting a breakdown. More conservative traders may want a tighter stop loss. Our target is the $60.50-60.00 range.
Picked on March 04 at $ 65.82
Bausch Lomb - BOL - cls: 50.21 change: -0.91 stop: 52.51
BOL lost 1.7% and closed under technical support at its 200-dma. The stock is poised to breakdown under price support at the $50.00 mark. We don't see any changes from our weekend comments. We're sticking to our plan and waiting for a breakdown under support near $50.00. We're suggesting a trigger to buy puts at $49.49. More conservative traders may want to wait for a decline under $49.00 to lessen the risk that we'll be triggered on an intraday spike lower. If we are triggered at $49.49 our target will be the $44.00-42.50 range.
Picked on March xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Beazer Homes - BZH - close: 32.02 chg: -2.18 stop: 37.55
Concerns over the sub-prime lending market are spreading to other lenders. The market is worried that liquidity for mortgage loans is going to dry up and that's going to really hurt home sales. Thus the big decline in the homebuilding sector today. Shares of BZH lost 6.37% on very strong volume. Our target is the $30.50-30.00 range. FYI: More conservative traders may want to use a tighter stop loss. Traders should note that BZH does have a relatively high amount of short interest (17% of the float) and that does raise the risk of a short squeeze.
Picked on March 12 at $ 34.20
Harman Intl - HAR - close: 97.23 change: -0.79 stop: 102.01
The oversold bounce in HAR continues to retreat. Shares are nearing short-term support near its March lows and the exponential 200-dma. Readers can choose to open new put positions now or look for a new relative low first (under $96.39). Our target is the $92.50-90.00 range near its simple 200-dma. FYI: The P&F chart points to a very bearish $80 target.
Picked on March 04 at $ 97.49
MarineMax - HZO - close: 21.03 change: -0.59 stop: 23.06
HZO's failed rally and bearish reversal over the last couple of sessions helped set up the stock for today's 2.7% loss and new relative low. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stop losses. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $20.25-20.00 range. FYI: It may be worth noting that HZO has a high amount of short interest. The latest data (February) puts short interest at almost 24% of the stock's 16.8 million-share float. That definitely increases the risk of a short squeeze should the stock unexpectedly rally and breakout higher.
Picked on February 11 at $ 22.59
Ryland Group - RYL - close: 43.10 chg: -2.21 stop: 48.27
RYL was afflicted by the same pains hitting BZH and the rest of the homebuilders. Concerns over mortgage loan liquidity and tightening loan standards fueled concerns over home sales. Shares of RYL lost 4.8% and broke down under support at the $45.00 level on very strong volume. Our suggested trigger to buy puts was at $44.75, which would have been hit early this morning. If RYL bounces then look for a failed rally under $45.00 as a new entry point. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. Our target is the $40.50-40.00 range. FYI: The P&F chart for RYL points to a $29 target. The stock does have a high amount of short interest at 24% of the float and that raises the risk of a short squeeze.
Picked on March 13 at $ 44.75