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Call Updates

Cigna - CI - close: 139.11 chg: +2.04 stop: 134.75

Thus far our call play in CI is working as planned. Shares dipped into our suggested entry zone yesterday and the stock rebounded with the market today. However, the sell-off may not be over yet as CI has not yet broken out past its bearish trend of lower highs and short-term resistance at its 10-dma near $140. If the stock dips again, we'd use a bounce above the 50-dma as a new bullish entry point. If you prefer to buy on momentum then look for a rally past $141. Our target is the $145.00-146.00 range.

Picked on March 13 at $137.49
Change since picked: + 1.62
Earnings Date 05/09/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 759 thousand

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Carbo Ceramics - CRR - cls: 44.90 chg: -0.06 stop: 42.45

CRR's failure to bounce with the market today is a danger sign. The stock traded flat to down and closed with a minor loss. It's hard to put a lot of credence behind a minor loss with below average volume but it's still a show of relative weakness. Readers may want to wait for a new bullish breakout over $46 before opening positions. Our [corrected] target is the $49.75-50.00 range. FYI: CRR might qualify as an oil services stock. The most recent data (February) puts short interest at over 15% of CRR's 18.7 million-share float. That's a relatively high degree of short interest and raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on March 11 at $ 45.55
Change since picked: - 0.65
Earnings Date 05/03/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 458 thousand

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ESSEX Prop. - ESS - cls: 128.33 chg: +0.62 stop: 125.95

We're honestly surprised that ESS didn't stop us out today. Given the market's intraday weakness we would have expected ESS to dip toward support near $125 and its 200-dma. Instead the low was $126.34. We would watch for a breakout over $130.00 or $130.25 before considering new bullish call plays. Our target is the $137.00-140.00 zone.

Picked on March 12 at $130.26
Change since picked: - 1.93
Earnings Date 02/07/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 196 thousand

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Noble Energy - NBL - close: 57.85 chg: +1.59 stop: 55.75

Oil stocks rebounded sharply higher this afternoon and that helped NBL bounced from support near $56. This looks like a new entry point to buy calls but more conservative traders may want to wait for a rally past $58.00 or $60.00 before opening new positions. We're going to adjust our target from $62.00-62.50 to $64.00-65.00.

Picked on March 06 at $ 58.02
Change since picked: - 0.17
Earnings Date 05/24/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million

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New Century - NEWC - close: 0.67 chg: -0.175 stop: n/a

It was another rough day for New Century. We don't see any changes from our previous comments. The new stock symbol is NEWC and prices are being quote on www.pinksheets.com. It now looks like odds that NEW will file bankruptcy are higher than odds the company will be bought out. We're not suggesting new positions. If you did want to speculate we'd use the $2.50 calls. At this time we're going to keep an eye on NEW through the end of the week. If nothing happens we might just drop it. Please see our weekend play description for more details behind our strategy.

Picked on March 11 at $ 3.21
Change since picked: - 2.54
Earnings Date 11/02/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.7 million

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Molson Coors - TAP - cls: 87.70 chg: +1.77 stop: 83.49

TAP displayed relative strength today with a 2% rally on above average volume and a breakout over short-term resistance near $87.00. Our suggested trigger to buy calls was at $87.15 so the play is now open. If you missed this afternoon's entry point we'd still consider new positions now or on a rally past $88.00 and its February 2007 high. Our target is the $92.50-95.00 range.

Picked on March 14 at $ 87.15
Change since picked: + 0.55
Earnings Date 05/17/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 782 thousand
 

Put Updates

Ashland Inc. - ASH - cls: 62.95 chg: +0.19 stop: 66.51 *new*

ASH traded to an intraday low of $61.66 but the sharp afternoon market rebound produced a similar bounce in ASH. We're not suggesting new positions at this time and more conservative traders may want to do some profit taking. We are adjusting our stop loss to $66.51. More conservative traders may want a tighter stop loss. Our target is the $60.50-60.00 range.

Picked on March 04 at $ 65.82
Change since picked: - 2.87
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 770 thousand

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Bausch Lomb - BOL - cls: 50.80 change: +0.59 stop: 52.51

BOL displayed relative strength today. Even though the major averages were showing a lot of weakness midday shares of BOL never broke down under the $50.00 mark. We're still on the sidelines. We're suggesting a trigger to buy puts at $49.49. More conservative traders may want to wait for a decline under $49.00 to lessen the risk that we'll be triggered on an intraday spike lower. If we are triggered at $49.49 our target will be the $44.00-42.50 range.

Picked on March xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 00/00/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 678 thousand

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Beazer Homes - BZH - close: 32.99 chg: +0.97 stop: 37.55

Homebuilders produced an oversold bounce today. BZH rose 3% and on strong volume but the end result is what's called an "inside day" where shares never strayed beyond yesterday's open or close. We would not be surprised to see a bounce and a failed rally near $35.00 and its 10-dma, which could be a good spot to consider new positions. Our target is the $30.50-30.00 range. FYI: More conservative traders may want to use a tighter stop loss. Traders should note that BZH does have a relatively high amount of short interest (17% of the float) and that does raise the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on March 12 at $ 34.20
Change since picked: - 1.21
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million

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Harman Intl - HAR - close: 98.86 change: +1.63 stop: 102.01

The rebound in HAR looks dangerous if you're a bear or holding puts. We would expect the bounce to reach the $100 level. The question is whether or not the $100 level will hold as overhead resistance. More conservative traders may want to use tighter stops. Our target is the $92.50-90.00 range near its simple 200-dma. FYI: The P&F chart points to a very bearish $80 target.

Picked on March 04 at $ 97.49
Change since picked: + 1.37
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 614 thousand

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MarineMax - HZO - close: 21.12 change: +0.09 stop: 22.59 *new*

The market's afternoon bounce also inspired some short covering or bargain shopping in HZO. We would look for overhead resistance at its 01-dma under $22.00. We're adjusting our stop loss to $22.59. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $20.25-20.00 range. FYI: It may be worth noting that HZO has a high amount of short interest. The latest data (February) puts short interest at almost 24% of the stock's 16.8 million-share float. That definitely increases the risk of a short squeeze should the stock unexpectedly rally and breakout higher.

Picked on February 11 at $ 22.59
Change since picked: - 1.47
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 300 thousand

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Ryland Group - RYL - close: 44.79 chg: +1.69 stop: 48.27

RYL is another homebuilder that experienced an oversold bounce after multiple days of selling. Watch for resistance near $45.00 and again near its 10-dma around $46.30. Look for a failed rally under $45.00 as a new entry point. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. Our target is the $40.50-40.00 range. FYI: The P&F chart for RYL points to a $29 target. The stock does have a high amount of short interest at 24% of the float and that raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on March 13 at $ 44.75
Change since picked: + 0.04
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million
 

Strangle Updates

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Dropped Calls

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Dropped Puts

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Dropped Strangles

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