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Call Updates

Allegheny Tech. - ATI - cls: 103.04 chg: +1.67 stop: 97.95

The bounce continued on Thursday and shares of ATI rose 1.6%. Our biggest concern was the below average volume behind the move. Technical indicators are improving and the daily chart's MACD looks close to a new buy signal. The next challenge for the bulls is the $105 level. Our target is the $109.00-110.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report. FYI: The P&F chart points to a $123 target.

Picked on March 14 at $101.50
Change since picked: + 1.67
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.6 million

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Cigna - CI - close: 140.88 chg: +1.77 stop: 134.75

If you didn't buy the dip in CI then today's bullish breakout over the $140 level and its simple 10-dma looks like another entry point to buy call options. More conservative traders may want to wait for a rise past $141, which looks like it might be short-term resistance. Our target is the $145.00-146.00 range.

Picked on March 13 at $137.49
Change since picked: + 3.39
Earnings Date 05/09/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 759 thousand

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ConocoPhillips - COP - cls: 66.52 chg: -1.39 stop: 65.74

Oil stocks were a pocket of weakness on Thursday. Shares of COP failed to see any follow through on Wednesday's rally. The stock lost 2% and looks headed back toward the 50-dma. We are suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $69.01 since a move over $69.00 would produce a new triple-top breakout buy signal on the P&F chart. If we are triggered at $69.01 our target is the $74.00-75.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on March xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 12.1 million

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Carbo Ceramics - CRR - cls: 44.45 chg: -0.45 stop: 42.45

CRR continues to show relative weakness, which is bad news for the bulls. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. If shares don't bounce near $44.00 we might want to exit early and cut our losses. If you prefer to buy on momentum then you may want to wait for a new bullish breakout over $46 before opening positions. Our target is the $49.75-50.00 range. FYI: CRR might qualify as an oil services stock. The most recent data (February) puts short interest at over 15% of CRR's 18.7 million-share float. That's a relatively high degree of short interest and raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on March 11 at $ 45.55
Change since picked: - 1.10
Earnings Date 05/03/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 458 thousand

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ESSEX Prop. - ESS - cls: 129.84 chg: +1.51 stop: 125.95

It was a positive day for ESS. The REIT turned in a 1.1% gain. Again, our concern would be the below average volume on the move but we're not going to complain about the bullish breakout over the simple 10-dma. Right now shares are challenging resistance near $130.00-130.25. We would watch for a breakout over $130.25 before considering new bullish call plays. Our target is the $137.00-140.00 zone.

Picked on March 12 at $130.26
Change since picked: - 0.42
Earnings Date 02/07/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 196 thousand

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Holly Corp. - HOC - cls: 56.95 chg: -0.92 stop: 54.95

HOC was hit by the same weakness that affected the rest of the oil sector. The stock produced another failed rally at the $58.00 level. Watch for a dip near $56.00 and consider buying a bounce. More conservative traders may want to wait for a rise past $58.00 before opening plays. Our target is the $62.00-62.50 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $74.00 target.

Picked on March 14 at $ 57.87
Change since picked: - 0.92
Earnings Date 05/14/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 651 thousand

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Accredited Home Lenders - LEND - cls: 9.43 chg: +3.39 stop: n/a

A short squeeze in the subprime lenders helped send shares of LEND to an intraday high of $11.50. That should have been more than enough to make a profit even if you jumped after the morning gap higher at $7.34. Comments out of Alan Greenspan that the troubles in the subprime arena may not be over yet and could spread to other sectors may have accounted for the afternoon pull back. We're speculating that LEND is a buyout candidate and the stock could be acquired over the next few weeks. That's when we want to exit. However, if the short squeeze moves enough traders can still exit when their calls appreciate to whatever suits your trading style. Just remember, this is a high-risk lottery play, but we might just exit early if LEND can rebound toward $14.50-15.00.

Picked on March 14 at $ 6.04
Change since picked: + 3.39
Earnings Date 05/16/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.0 million

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Noble Energy - NBL - close: 57.67 chg: -0.18 stop: 55.75

Weakness in the oil sector stunted the rebound in NBL. Volume came in relatively low on the session. More conservative traders may want to wait for a rally past $58.00 or $60.00 before opening new positions. We're going to adjust our target from $62.00-62.50 to $64.00-65.00.

Picked on March 06 at $ 58.02
Change since picked: - 0.35
Earnings Date 05/24/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million

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New Century - NEWC - close: 1.35 chg: +0.68 stop: n/a

Shares of NEWC experienced a very big bounce as the sub-prime lenders rose on short covering. NEWC rose more than 101.4% on more than 28.7 million in volume. We hesitate to suggest new positions but the strategy remains the same. There is a chance that New Century will be bought out but odds seem greater the company will just file bankruptcy.

Picked on March 11 at $ 3.21
Change since picked: - 1.86
Earnings Date 11/02/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.7 million

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Sunoco - SUN - close: 66.57 chg: -0.64 stop: 63.95

SUN is another oil stock that struggled to build on yesterday's gains. Shares of SUN actually produced a failed rally and bearish engulfing candlestick under short-term resistance at the $68.00 level. This is short-term bearish. We're suggesting that readers use a trigger at $68.15 to open bullish positions. If triggered our target is the $74.00-75.00 range. We do expect some resistance near $70.00. The P&F chart is very bullish with an $82 target.

Picked on March xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 05/02/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.8 million

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Molson Coors - TAP - cls: 87.85 chg: +0.15 stop: 83.49

TAP posted another gain but the stock really struggled with resistance at the $88.00 level. If shares dip toward $87 again we'd use it as another entry point. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops a bit. If you prefer to see more momentum then wait for a breakout over today's high (88.02). Our target is the $92.50-95.00 range.

Picked on March 14 at $ 87.15
Change since picked: + 0.70
Earnings Date 05/17/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 782 thousand
 

Put Updates

Ashland Inc. - ASH - cls: 64.03 chg: +1.08 stop: 66.51

It's not looking very good for the bears in ASH. The stock rose another 1.7% following yesterday's bullish reversal. Today's close over the 10-dma is another bullish sign. We would expect a rally toward $65.00 and probably near the 200-dma (65.40). More conservative traders may want to exit early or tighten their stops. Our target is the $60.50-60.00 range.

Picked on March 04 at $ 65.82
Change since picked: - 1.79
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 770 thousand

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Bausch Lomb - BOL - cls: 50.55 change: -0.25 stop: 52.51

Lack of a bounce in BOL is bearish. The stock continues to struggle with short-term resistance at its 10-dma. We're suggesting a trigger to buy puts at $49.49. More conservative traders may want to wait for a decline under $49.00 to lessen the risk that we'll be triggered on an intraday spike lower. If we are triggered at $49.49 our target will be the $44.00-42.50 range.

Picked on March xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 00/00/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 678 thousand

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Beazer Homes - BZH - close: 32.79 chg: -0.20 stop: 37.55

As a group the homebuilders experienced a short-covering rally partially fueled by the very big short covering rally in the lenders. However, shares of BZH under performed the market and its peers with another loss. We don't see any changes from our previous comments. Our target is the $30.50-30.00 range. FYI: More conservative traders may want to use a tighter stop loss. Traders should note that BZH does have a relatively high amount of short interest (17% of the float) and that does raise the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on March 12 at $ 34.20
Change since picked: - 1.41
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million

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Harman Intl - HAR - close: 98.63 change: -0.23 stop: 102.01

Lack of follow through on HAR's bullish rally yesterday is a good thing if you are holding puts. However, we're not out of the woods and we hesitate to suggest new positions at this time. More conservative traders may want to use tighter stops. Our target is the $92.50-90.00 range near its simple 200-dma. FYI: The P&F chart points to a very bearish $80 target.

Picked on March 04 at $ 97.49
Change since picked: + 1.14
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 614 thousand

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MarineMax - HZO - close: 21.04 change: -0.08 stop: 22.59

HZO under performed the market with another decline and a failed rally today. We're not suggesting new positions. More conservative traders might want to consider some profit taking. Our target is the $20.25-20.00 range. FYI: It may be worth noting that HZO has a high amount of short interest. The latest data (February) puts short interest at almost 24% of the stock's 16.8 million-share float. That definitely increases the risk of a short squeeze should the stock unexpectedly rally and breakout higher.

Picked on February 11 at $ 22.59
Change since picked: - 1.55
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 300 thousand

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Ryland Group - RYL - close: 45.25 chg: +0.46 stop: 48.27

Short covering in the homebuilders helped fuel the 1% rally in RYL today. The rise struggled at the simple 10-dma. Watch for another drop under $45.00 or the $44.60 level as a new entry point to buy puts. More conservative traders may want to use a tighter stop loss. Our target is the $40.50-40.00 range. FYI: The P&F chart for RYL points to a $29 target. The stock does have a high amount of short interest at 24% of the float and that raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on March 13 at $ 44.75
Change since picked: + 0.50
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million
 

Strangle Updates

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Dropped Calls

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Dropped Puts

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Dropped Strangles

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