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Call Updates

Apple Inc. - AAPL - cls: 91.48 chg: +0.35 stop: 87.49

AAPL continued to creep higher but investors didn't seem to be in a rush to buy the stock ahead of tomorrow's FOMC announcement. We remain bullish with shares above $90.00 but it might pay off to wait and see if we get another entry point on a dip toward $90 again. Our target is the $97.50-100.00 range.

Picked on March 19 at $ 91.01
Change since picked: + 0.47
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 35 million

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Allegheny Tech. - ATI - cls: 105.99 chg: +1.26 stop: 99.25*new*

ATI produced a bullish breakout over the $105 level after an analyst firm raised their price target on the stock to $116. Everything appears to be going as planned. The next stop should be its all-time highs near resistance around $110. We are adjusting the stop loss to $99.25, just under the 50-dma. Our target is the $109.00-110.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report. FYI: The P&F chart points to a $123 target.

Picked on March 14 at $101.50
Change since picked: + 4.39
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.6 million

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Celgene - CELG - close: 52.91 chg: -0.38 stop: 49.45

The BTK biotech index continued to rebound but the bounce in CELG appeared to stall under the $53.25 level and its 50-dma. We would watch for a dip near or a bounce from the $52.00 level as a potential entry point to buy calls. Our target is the $57.50-60.00 range. Watch the 50-dma and 100-dma for potential resistance between $53 and $55. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on March 19 at $ 52.65
Change since picked: + 0.26
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.5 million

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ConocoPhillips - COP - cls: 66.31 chg: +0.66 stop: 64.85 *new*

Oil stocks turned higher in spite of an intraday reversal in crude oil lower. This bounce in shares of COP from the $65.00 level looks very tempting. As a matter of fact we're going to alter our strategy and suggest buying calls now. We'll adjust the stop loss to $64.85. More conservative traders can remain on the sidelines and wait for a breakout over the $69.00 level. Our target is unchanged at $74.00-75.00. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on March 20 at $ 66.31
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 12.1 million

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ESSEX Prop. - ESS - cls: 131.55 chg: +0.91 stop: 125.95

ESS continues to rally following yesterday's breakout over resistance near $130. Volume behind today's gain was above average, which is bullish. We are still suggesting new positions here. We'd keep a cautious eye on the 100-dma and the 50-dma as potential resistance but our target is the $137-140 zone.

Picked on March 12 at $130.26
Change since picked: + 1.29
Earnings Date 02/07/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 196 thousand

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Holly Corp. - HOC - cls: 58.64 chg: +0.05 stop: 54.95

Intraday weakness in crude oil temporarily took the wind out of HOC's sails. Yet the stock was in rally mode again by the closing bell and closed near its highs. We remain bullish here. Our target is the $62.00-62.50 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $74.00 target.

Picked on March 14 at $ 57.87
Change since picked: + 0.87
Earnings Date 05/14/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 651 thousand

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Accredited Home Lenders - LEND - cls: 10.77 chg: +1.82 stop: n/a

The country's fifth largest hedge fund gave LEND $200 million in funding to stem LEND's credit crunch and help them find longer-term financing. The news eased fears that the company would file bankruptcy and short covering helped push LEND to a 20% gain. More conservative traders might want to consider locking in a gain of their own right here. However, we heard more talk today that LEND is still a buyout target and any deal would probably put the stock price in the $14-16 range, which is where we have been eyeing an exit anyway. We would expect a deal announced in the next few weeks. If a buyout doesn't occur then we'd consider an exit in the $14-15 range.

Picked on March 14 at $ 6.04
Change since picked: + 4.73
Earnings Date 05/16/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.0 million

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New Century - NEWC - close: 1.69 chg: -0.48 stop: n/a

It was a rough day for NEWC. The stock dropped sharply on news that Fannie Mae (FNM) had terminated their agreement with NEWC citing breach of contract. If that was not enough the State of California told NEWC that it could no longer accept loan applications for residents of the state. It doesn't look good for NEWC. If someone doesn't step in and buy the company soon it may just crawl away and die.

Picked on March 11 at $ 3.21
Change since picked: - 1.52
Earnings Date 11/02/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.7 million

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Sunoco - SUN - close: 68.49 chg: +1.36 stop: 63.95

Oil stocks showed relative strength on Tuesday in spite of some intraday weakness in crude. Shares of SUN broke out over resistance near $68.00 and closed at new three-month highs. Our suggested trigger to buy calls was at $68.15 so the play is now open. Our target is the $74.00-75.00 range. We do expect some resistance near $70.00. The P&F chart is very bullish with an $82 target. As a refiner, SUN, should do very well over the summer driving season and investors should eventually begin buying ahead of the summer quarter.

Picked on March 20 at $ 68.15
Change since picked: + 0.34
Earnings Date 05/02/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.8 million

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Molson Coors - TAP - cls: 90.83 chg: +0.80 stop: 84.95 *new*

TAP continues to defy gravity and post another gain. Yesterday shares broke through round-number resistance at $90.00 and today the stock rose another 0.88%. Volume has been light and that makes us concerned. We're not suggesting new positions. More conservative traders may want to exit early. Our target is the $92.50-95.00 range. We're adjusting the stop loss to $84.95. The P&F chart is very bullish with a bullish triangle breakout buy signal that forecasts a $134 price target.

Picked on March 14 at $ 87.15
Change since picked: + 3.68
Earnings Date 05/17/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 782 thousand
 

Put Updates

Bausch Lomb - BOL - cls: 49.06 change: +0.27 stop: 52.51

BOL tried to bounce and did manage to post a 0.5% gain but the move looks more like a failed rally. Readers may want to use today's action as a new entry point to buy puts. More conservative traders can tighten their stops. Our target is the $44.00-42.50 range but we want to warn readers that BOL may find some support near $47.50 and its December 2006 low.

Picked on March 18 at $ 49.51
Change since picked: - 0.45
Earnings Date 00/00/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 678 thousand

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Beazer Homes - BZH - close: 32.70 chg: +0.15 stop: 36.25

The homebuilders tried to rally on the economic news this morning but the sector didn't get very far. The DJUSHB index rose just 0.18%. Shares of BZH did better with a 0.4% gain but it wasn't very inspiring. Volume continues to come in strong for BZH and the overall trend remains bearish even as downward momentum is stalling. We hesitate to suggest new positions right here. Our target is the $30.50-30.00 range. FYI: Traders should note that BZH does have a relatively high amount of short interest (17% of the float) and that does raise the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on March 12 at $ 34.20
Change since picked: - 1.50
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million

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Electronic Arts - ERTS - cls: 49.33 chg: +0.35 stop: 51.55

Strength in tech and software stocks helped ERTS but the trend remains bearish. Watch for a failed rally under $50.00 or its 200-dma as a new entry point for puts. Or you could look for a new low under $48.40 before initiating positions. Our target is the $45.00-44.00 range near the July 2007 gap. The P&F chart looks pretty bearish with a failed rally under resistance and a $40 target.

Picked on March 18 at $ 48.92
Change since picked: + 0.41
Earnings Date 05/03/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.0 million

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Harman Intl - HAR - close: 98.36 change: +0.07 stop: 102.01

We don't see any changes from our previous comments on HAR. The stock traded sideways in a narrow range. Readers can choose a failed rally under $100 or a new decline under $97 or $96 as a new entry point. We would wait for more follow through lower before initiating new positions. More conservative traders may want to use tighter stops. Our target is the $92.50-90.00 range near its simple 200-dma. FYI: The P&F chart points to a very bearish $80 target.

Picked on March 04 at $ 97.49
Change since picked: + 0.87
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 614 thousand

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MarineMax - HZO - close: 21.45 change: +0.32 stop: 22.26 *new*

Danger! The oversold bounce in HZO has now pushed shares above short-term resistance at the 10-dma. More conservative traders may want to exit now. We're going to tighten our stop loss to $22.26. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. FYI: It may be worth noting that HZO has a high amount of short interest. The latest data (February) puts short interest at almost 24% of the stock's 16.8 million-share float. That definitely increases the risk of a short squeeze should the stock unexpectedly rally and breakout higher.

Picked on February 11 at $ 22.59
Change since picked: - 1.14
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 300 thousand

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Ryland Group - RYL - close: 44.97 chg: +0.43 stop: 46.77 *new*

A 9% jump in housing starts was not enough to fuel any sort of significant rally in the homebuilders. Yet RYL still managed a 0.9% oversold bounce. The stock remains under its bearish trend of lower highs and its 10-dma and 200-dma. Watch for a failed rally under either as a new entry point for puts. We are adjusting our stop loss to $46.77, just above the 200-dma. Our target is the $40.50-40.00 range. FYI: The P&F chart for RYL points to a $29 target. The stock does have a high amount of short interest at 24% of the float and that raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on March 13 at $ 44.75
Change since picked: + 0.22
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million
 

Strangle Updates

None
 

Dropped Calls

Cigna - CI - close: 144.90 chg: +0.96 stop: 136.99

Target achieved. The rally in CI continued for the fifth day in a row. Shares rose to an intraday high of $145.33. Our target was the $145.00-146.00 range. We would keep an eye on CI for future entry points.

Picked on March 13 at $137.49
Change since picked: + 7.41
Earnings Date 05/09/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 759 thousand

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Ashland Inc. - ASH - cls: 64.30 chg: +0.78 stop: 66.05

We are giving up on ASH as a bearish play. The stock's sideways consolidation has eliminated any bearish momentum and now the stock looks poised to bounce higher. Yes, there is potential resistance near the 200-dma and the $66.00 level but we don't want to risk it at this time so we're suggesting an early exit. (Note: the 200-dma on our qcharts does not match the 200-dma on this chart below)

Picked on March 04 at $ 65.82
Change since picked: - 1.52
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 770 thousand
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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