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Call Updates

Apple Inc. - AAPL - cls: 93.96 chg: +0.09 stop: 88.85

The upward momentum in AAPL stalled on Thursday and Friday. Shares continue to look bullish with last week's breakout over the $90-91 zone. We suspect that with next Friday being the end of the first quarter that AAPL will benefit from window dressing. If you're looking for a new entry point we'd watch for a dip toward $91 or near its 10-dma (currently near 91.15). The next challenge for AAPL is potential resistance near $95. Our target is the $97.50-100.00 range. FYI: We can't help but notice that the trading in AAPL over the last four months is starting to look like a potential head-and-shoulders pattern, which would be bearish.

Suggested Options:
If AAPL pulls back and provides another entry point we'd suggest buying the May calls. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on March 19 at $ 91.01
Change since picked: + 2.95
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 35 million

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Boeing - BA - close: 90.98 chg: +0.41 stop: 88.95

BA is still consolidating sideways but if you look inside at the intraday trading the stock seems poised to move higher. Friday's session was strong right from the start and BA produced a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern. More aggressive traders might want to consider new positions now. We're going to stick to our plan, which is to wait for a breakout over resistance near $92.00. Our suggested entry point to buy calls is at $92.15. If triggered our target is the $99.50-100.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report. The P&F chart is already bullish and points to a $107 target.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the May calls. Our suggested trigger to open plays is at $92.15.

BUY CALL MAY 90.00 BA-ER open interest=8502 current ask $3.70
BUY CALL MAY 95.00 BA-ES open interest=9557 current ask $1.35
BUY CALL MAY 100.0 BA-ET open interest=6948 current ask $0.45

Picked on March xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.2 million

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CACI Intl - CAI - cls: 48.00 chg: -0.25 stop: 46.64

Lack of follow through on CAI's bullish breakout from Wednesday is somewhat discouraging but the major market averages haven't moved the last two days. Shares of CAI remain above its simple 50-dma, which is a positive. Traders can choose to buy this dip or wait for another show of strength like a move over $48.50 as a new entry point. More conservative traders may want to wait for a move over the January 18th high near $48.90 first. Our target is the $52.50 mark. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings. FYI: The P&F chart is still bearish from the big drop in January.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the May calls. Traders might want to consider using April calls, which have more open interest.

BUY CALL MAY 47.50 CAI-EB open interest= 20 current ask $2.60
BUY CALL MAY 50.00 CAI-EJ open interest= 26 current ask $1.40

Picked on March 21 at $ 48.36
Change since picked: - 0.36
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 517 thousand

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Celgene - CELG - close: 55.02 chg: +0.55 stop: 49.95

CELG out paced the rally in biotech stocks on Friday. The stock got a boost after news hit that the European Medicines Agency had approved CELG's Revlimid as a treatment for myeloma better known as bone-marrow cancer. Shares of CELG responded with a spike to $55.49 and a bullish breakout over resistance at its 100-dma and the $55.00 level (just barely). We remain positive but we're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $57.50-60.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Suggested Options:
We're not suggesting new positions in CELG at this time. However, if shares were to dip or bounce near the $53.50 region it could be used as a new entry point. We like the May calls.

Picked on March 19 at $ 52.65
Change since picked: + 2.37
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.5 million

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ConocoPhillips - COP - cls: 69.25 chg: +0.57 stop: 64.85

In this weekend's market wrap Jim talks about how news that Iran had captured some British armed forces renewed fears about an armed conflict with Iran, which would send oil prices skyrocketing. Oil is already climbing on concerns about adequate gasoline supplies for this summer's driving season. COP's breakout over $69 this week has produced a new quadruple top breakout buy signal on the Point & Figure chart with a $78 target. We're aiming for the $74.00-75.00 range. However, traders may want to wait for a dip toward $68.75-68.50 as a new entry point or look for a move over $70.00 as a new entry point. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the May calls.

BUY CALL MAY 65.00 COP-EM open interest=37094 current ask $5.70
BUY CALL MAY 70.00 COP-EN open interest=44511 current ask $2.40
BUY CALL MAY 75.00 COP-EO open interest=23879 current ask $0.70

Picked on March 20 at $ 66.31
Change since picked: + 2.94
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 12.1 million

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ESSEX Prop. - ESS - cls: 135.03 chg: +0.81 stop: 129.75 *new*

Shares of ESS, a REIT, continued to show relative strength on Friday. The stock posted its fifth gain in a row and the seventh gain in the last eight sessions to breakout over round-number resistance at the $135 level. The breakout wasn't very convincing but we do note that volume came in pretty strong. We are not suggesting new positions at this time and more conservative traders will want to seriously consider taking some money off the table right now. We see potential resistance at its 50-dma overhead so we're aiming for an exit in the $137.00-140.00 range. We are adjusting the stop loss to $129.75.

Suggested Options:
We are not suggesting new plays in ESS at this time.

Picked on March 12 at $130.26
Change since picked: + 4.77
Earnings Date 02/07/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 196 thousand

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Holly Corp. - HOC - cls: 61.37 chg: +1.01 stop: 56.45 *new*

Continued strength in oil and oil stocks, thanks to the Iran news, helped push HOC to another new all-time high. The stock is nearing our $62.00-62.50 target so we're not suggesting new positions at this time. The intraday high on Friday was $61.74. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher but bear in mind that HOC is starting to look overbought with the non-stop run from its March lows. We are raising the stop loss to $56.45. The $60 and $58 levels should act as short-term support.

Suggested Options:
We are not suggesting new plays in HOC at this time.

Picked on March 14 at $ 57.87
Change since picked: + 3.50
Earnings Date 05/14/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 651 thousand

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Johnson Controls - JCI - cls: 95.68 chg: -0.18 stop: 93.99

The market's lack of follow through on Wednesday's big gain is very evident in JCI. The stock appeared to breakout from a pennant-shaped consolidation pattern on Wednesday but then failed to confirm it. Our expectation is that stocks will generally move higher next week due to end-of-quarter window dressing. That may be the catalyst JCI needs to make another run at its February highs. Traders can choose to buy calls now or wait for a new relative high over $96.40 before initiating positions. Our short-term target is the $99.75-100.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher! We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the May calls although Aprils might work and have more open interest.

BUY CALL MAY 95.00 JCI-ES open interest=27 current ask $4.20
BUY CALL MAY 100.0 JCI-ET open interest=83 current ask $1.85

Picked on March 21 at $ 96.03
Change since picked: - 0.35
Earnings Date 04/20/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = million

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Accredited Home Lenders - LEND - cls: 11.77 chg: -0.80 stop: n/a

We added LEND to the play list on March 14th with the (high-risk and very speculative) plan to buy calls on the expectation that someone would step in and buy the company given the massive sell-off in the stock price. Since that time there has been a lot of talk about a potential buyout and a few analysts have guessed that any buyout would be in the $15 range. Short-covering and a slow down in the bad news for subprime lenders has produced a significant bounce in the stock. There is still a chance that LEND will be taken over but we're not suggesting new positions at this time. We strongly suggest that readers consider taking some profits off the table now. We plan to exit in the $14.00-15.00 range whether there is a buyout offer or not. If you prefer, instead of exiting early, think about putting a stop loss under the $10.00 level.

Suggested Options:
We are not suggesting new plays in LEND.

Picked on March 14 at $ 6.04
Change since picked: + 5.73
Earnings Date 05/16/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.0 million

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New Century - NEWC - close: 2.00 chg: +0.44 stop: n/a

The beleaguered shares of NEWC showed signs of life on Friday. The stock rose 28% but it remains to be seen if this is a temporary bounce or something more sustainable. We don't have very high expectations at this point. We initially added NEWC as a lottery ticket play with a big risk and big reward on the speculation that someone would step in and buy the company. So far that has failed to materialize. It could still happen but we wouldn't bet on it any further. Thus we're not suggesting new positions.

Suggested Options:
We're not suggesting new plays in NEWC.

Picked on March 11 at $ 3.21
Change since picked: - 1.21
Earnings Date 11/02/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.7 million

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Sunoco - SUN - close: 71.16 chg: +0.85 stop: 65.65 *new*

Rising crude oil, in addition to rising concerns over Iran, lifted the energy stocks on Friday. The sector turned in a strong week and while the group may be due for some profit taking we'd use any weakness as a new entry point to buy calls. SUN broke out over multiple levels of resistance last week. If you are looking for a new entry point watch for a dip toward the $69.00-68.00 zone. The P&F chart is very bullish with an $82 target. Our target is the $74.00-75.00 range. Please note that we're adjusting the stop loss to $65.65. As a refiner, SUN, should do very well over the summer driving season and investors should eventually begin buying ahead of the summer quarter.

Suggested Options:
If SUN provides a new entry point we'd suggest the May calls.

Picked on March 20 at $ 68.15
Change since picked: + 3.01
Earnings Date 05/02/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.8 million
 

Put Updates

Bausch Lomb - BOL - cls: 49.89 change: -0.05 stop: 52.51

BOL is still under performing the market and shares failed to close over round number, psychological resistance at the $50.00 mark on Friday. Shares remain somewhat oversold and thus short-term technicals are mixed but long-term the technicals look bearish. We suspect that with BOL down for the quarter, any funds that still own it might do some window undressing and dump the stock before the end of March. The last couple of weeks has seen a bearish breakdown under the 200-dma, the $50 level and what appears to be the bottom edge of a bear wedge pattern on the weekly chart. More conservative traders can tighten their stops. Our target is the $44.00-42.50 range but we want to warn readers that BOL may find some support near $47.50 and its December 2006 low.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the May puts.

BUY PUT MAY 50.00 BOL-QJ open interest=334 current ask $1.85
BUY PUT MAY 45.00 BOL-QI open interest= 67 current ask $0.45

Picked on March 18 at $ 49.51
Change since picked: + 0.38
Earnings Date 00/00/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 678 thousand

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Beazer Homes - BZH - close: 33.16 chg: +0.03 stop: 36.25

The homebuilders initially rallied on the better than expected existing home sales numbers that came out on Friday morning. Unfortunately for the bulls the rally didn't last long and investors sold into strength. Shares of BZH continue to look oversold but the lack of follow through on Wednesday's big bounce should be encouraging for the bears. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. Our target is the $30.50-30.00 range. FYI: Traders should note that BZH does have a relatively high amount of short interest (17% of the float) and that does raise the risk of a short squeeze.

Suggested Options:
We're not suggesting new plays in BZH at this time.

Picked on March 12 at $ 34.20
Change since picked: - 1.04
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million

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Electronic Arts - ERTS - cls: 50.13 chg: -0.13 stop: 51.55

Positive analyst comments on the video game industry on Friday failed to move the group higher so we're not willing to abandon the play just yet. Aggressive traders might want to use the Thursday-Friday failed rally near $51 and its 200-dma as a new entry point. We are suggesting readers wait for a new relative low under $48.70 before initiating new plays. Our target is the $45.15-44.00 range, which is a small adjustment from our previous comments. FYI: Normally video games stocks start heading up in spring as investors look forward to the huge E3 expo but this year it has been scheduled for summer time.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the May puts.

BUY PUT MAY 50.00 EZQ-QJ open interest= 194 current ask $2.10
BUY PUT MAY 45.00 EZQ-QI open interest= 43 current ask $0.60

Picked on March 18 at $ 48.92
Change since picked: + 1.21
Earnings Date 05/03/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.0 million
 

Strangle Updates

None
 

Dropped Calls

Molson Coors - TAP - cls: 92.88 chg: +1.85 stop: 84.95

Target achieved. The markets turned in one of the best weeks they have seen in years. Leading the way was TAP, which surged to a series of new highs. Friday's session witnessed a 2% gain on above average volume. Our target was the $92.50-95.00 range so the play is closed.

Picked on March 14 at $ 87.15
Change since picked: + 5.73
Earnings Date 05/17/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 782 thousand
 

Dropped Puts

MarineMax - HZO - close: 22.84 change: +1.01 stop: 22.26

We would have been stopped out of HZO at $22.26. Unfortunately, we could not uncover what prompted the rally or more likely the short squeeze in HZO. The stock broke out over short-term resistance at $22.00 and then just kept going.

Picked on February 11 at $ 22.59
Change since picked: + 0.25
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 300 thousand

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Ryland Group - RYL - close: 46.12 chg: -0.11 stop: 46.77

The Friday morning existing home sales numbers came in a lot stronger than expected and that fueled an intraday rally in the homebuilders. Shares of RYL spiked to $47.48 before quickly reversing course. Yet it was enough to stop us out at $46.77. We would keep an eye on RYL for a new decline under $45.00 as another entry point to buy puts.

Picked on March 13 at $ 44.75
Change since picked: + 1.37
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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