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Call Updates

Apple Inc. - AAPL - cls: 95.85 chg: +2.33 stop: 88.85

Monday turned out to be a strong session for AAPL. The stock immediately reversed the widespread morning weakness and rallied to a new two-month high. More conservative traders may want to consider taking some profit off the table now. We are not suggesting new positions with AAPL this close to our $97.50-100.00 price target.

Picked on March 19 at $ 91.01
Change since picked: + 4.84
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 35 million

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Allegheny Tech. - ATI - cls: 108.62 chg: +0.61 stop: 105.75

ATI managed to post another gain in spite of the morning downdraft. Yet shares remain under resistance at the $110 level. More aggressive traders might want to consider buying today's bounce. We don't see any changes from our weekend comments. We're suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $110.26. If triggered our target is the $117.00-120.00 range. An alternative entry for the more nimble trader would be a dip near $105.00-106.00. FYI: The P&F chart points to a $123 target. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report. Caution, we do see a bearish divergence between price and the MACD on the daily chart.

Picked on March xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.6 million

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Boeing - BA - close: 90.83 chg: -0.15 stop: 88.95

News that Indonesian airline company, Garuda, had ordered 25 new planes from BA this morning may have helped stall any profit taking. Dow-component BA dropped with the rest of the market on the new-home sales numbers but shares of BA eventually bounced. We don't see any changes from our weekend comments. More aggressive traders might want to consider new positions now. We're going to stick to our plan, which is to wait for a breakout over resistance near $92.00. Our suggested entry point to buy calls is at $92.15. If triggered our target is the $99.50-100.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report. The P&F chart is already bullish and points to a $107 target.

Picked on March xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.2 million

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Bunge Ltd. - BG - cls: 81.75 chg: +1.86 stop: 77.95

BG displayed a large amount of relative strength by resisting the market's sell-off this morning. Shares actually turned higher at the open, consolidated sideways and then rallied higher into the afternoon. Shares had broken past short-term resistance near $80.70 by the close and hit our entry point to buy calls at $80.75. Now that the play is open our target is the $85.00-85.50 range. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on March 26 at $ 80.75
Change since picked: + 1.00
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 990 thousand

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CACI Intl - CAI - cls: 48.09 chg: +0.09 stop: 46.64

Traders bought the dip in CAI near its 50-dma. The stock's afternoon bounce put it back in the green. Potentially boosting shares was news that CAI had won $ 59.8 million contract from the Missile Defense Agency. Today's rebound looks like a new entry point to buy calls. Or you can wait for a new rally past $48.50. More conservative traders may want to wait for a move over the January 18th high near $48.90 first. Our target is the $52.50 mark. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings. FYI: The P&F chart is still bearish from the big drop in January.

Picked on March 21 at $ 48.36
Change since picked: - 0.27
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 517 thousand

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Chaparral Steel - CHAP - cls: 56.98 chg: +1.25 stop: 51.75

CHAP continues to show strength. The stock barely dipped during this morning's market weakness. By the closing bell shares had rallied 2.2% on strong volume. Our target is the $59.50-60.00 range. The P&F chart has a triple-top breakout buy signal with a $72 target.

Picked on March 25 at $ 55.73
Change since picked: + 1.25
Earnings Date 03/20/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 627 thousand

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Celgene - CELG - close: 54.00 chg: -1.02 stop: 49.95

CELG reversed course on Monday and never recovered. Shares closed down 1.8% while testing its 50-dma with its intraday lows. We would not be surprised to see a dip towards the 10-dma near $53.00. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $57.50-60.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on March 19 at $ 52.65
Change since picked: + 1.35
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.5 million

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ConocoPhillips - COP - cls: 69.56 chg: +0.31 stop: 64.85

Growing tensions with Iran and the current hostage situation with 15 British forces pushed crude oil higher on Monday. Shares of COP inched up 0.4% but remains under the $70.00 mark. COP's breakout over $69 last week has produced a new quadruple top breakout buy signal on the Point & Figure chart with a $78 target. We're aiming for the $74.00-75.00 range. However, traders may want to wait for a dip toward $68.75-68.50 as a new entry point or look for a move over $70.00 as a new entry point. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on March 20 at $ 66.31
Change since picked: + 3.25
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 12.1 million

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ESSEX Prop. - ESS - cls: 132.16 chg: -2.87 stop: 129.75

REITs were down sharply on Monday presumably on the worse than expected new-home sales figures. ESS had been up several days in a row so some profit taking is not a surprise. Watch for a bounce near its rising 10-dma (near $131.15) or a bounce near the $130 level as a new entry point. We see potential resistance at its 50-dma overhead so we're aiming for an exit in the $137.00-140.00 range.

Picked on March 12 at $130.26
Change since picked: + 1.90
Earnings Date 02/07/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 196 thousand

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Holly Corp. - HOC - cls: 60.81 chg: -0.56 stop: 56.45

Negative comments from a Deutsche Bank analyst on the oil refiners prompted some profit taking in the group. The analyst believes that margins will slide and suspects that the stocks will have little upside from here. HOC was not named specifically but investors decided to do some profit taking since HOC was at all-time highs. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $62.00-62.50 range.

Picked on March 14 at $ 57.87
Change since picked: + 2.94
Earnings Date 05/14/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 651 thousand

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Johnson Controls - JCI - cls: 94.90 chg: -0.78 stop: 93.99

The battle for control in JCI intensified on Monday. Shares spiked higher at the open and then plunged to technical support at its 50-dma near $94.00. JCI did pare its losses but the move today looks like a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern, which is usually seen as a bearish reversal. More conservative traders may want to exit early right now to cut their losses. We would not consider bullish positions until JCI traded above today's high at $96.64. Our short-term target is the $99.75-100.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher! We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on March 21 at $ 96.03
Change since picked: - 1.13
Earnings Date 04/20/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = million

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Accredited Home Lenders - LEND - cls: 10.81 chg: -0.96 stop: n/a

News that Morgan Stanley (MS) has decided to auction off almost $2.5 billion in home mortgages that it received from New Century (NEWC.PK) that it sparked new bankruptcy fears for the sub-prime lenders. This send shares of LEND to a 8.1% decline. More conservative traders may want to exit immediately to protect any gains they have or at least consider placing a stop loss under the $10.00 level. We are not suggesting new positions. We are planning to exit on any take-out news or a rally into the $14-15 range.

Picked on March 14 at $ 6.04
Change since picked: + 4.77
Earnings Date 05/16/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.0 million

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Lockheed Martin - LMT - cls: 98.42 chg: -0.73 stop: 97.49

News that LMT had won a $260 million weapons deal from the U.S. Navy failed to move the stock price. We remain on the sidelines. Currently shares are consolidating under resistance at the $100.00 mark. We're suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $100.25. If triggered our short-term target is $104.85-105.00. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher since the P&F chart aims at a $128 target. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on March xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.8 million

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New Century - NEWC - close: 1.56 chg: -0.44 stop: n/a

It was another rough day for NEWC (or NEWC.PK). The stock dropped 22% and gave back all of Friday's gains. Pulling the carpet out from under the stock price was news that Morgan Stanley (MS) had decided not to keep the $2.5 billion in mortgages it recently received from NEWC as payment for a $2.5 billion line of credit. MS announced it was auctioning off the loans and that sparked new fears that NEWC was closer to bankruptcy. We don't have very high expectations at this point. We initially added NEWC as a lottery ticket play with a big risk and big reward on the speculation that someone would step in and buy the company. So far that has failed to materialize. It could still happen but we wouldn't bet on it any further. Thus we're not suggesting new positions.

Picked on March 11 at $ 3.21
Change since picked: - 1.65
Earnings Date 11/02/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.7 million

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Sunoco - SUN - close: 70.73 chg: -0.43 stop: 65.65

Negative comments on the oil refiners from a Deutsche Bank analyst prompted some profit taking in SUN. The analyst believes that the oil refiners will see margins decrease and that shares were becoming fully valued. Volume on today's pull back in SUN was high but it's worth noting that SUN rebounded sharply from its lows. We see the intraday bounce as a new entry point to buy calls. The P&F chart is very bullish with an $82 target. Our target is the $74.00-75.00 range. Please note that we're adjusting the stop loss to $65.65.

Picked on March 20 at $ 68.15
Change since picked: + 2.58
Earnings Date 05/02/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.8 million
 

Put Updates

Bausch Lomb - BOL - cls: 49.50 change: -0.39 stop: 52.51

Another round of weakness in BOL, under resistance at the $50.00 level, looks like a new entry point for puts. More conservative traders can tighten their stops. Our target is the $44.00-42.50 range but we want to warn readers that BOL may find some support near $47.50 and its December 2006 low.

Picked on March 18 at $ 49.51
Change since picked: - 0.01
Earnings Date 00/00/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 678 thousand

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Beazer Homes - BZH - close: 32.32 chg: -0.84 stop: 36.25

The market was very surprised by the new home sales numbers that came out this morning. Sales were worse than expected and it renewed concerns over the housing market. The DJUSHB home construction index lost 1.7%. Shares of BZH slipped 2.5% and near its March lows. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. Our target is the $30.50-30.00 range. FYI: Traders should note that BZH does have a relatively high amount of short interest (17% of the float) and that does raise the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on March 12 at $ 34.20
Change since picked: - 1.88
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million

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Electronic Arts - ERTS - cls: 50.34 chg: +0.21 stop: 51.55

ERTS continues to churn sideways. The stock rebounded from its intraday lows but remains inside the pattern of lower highs and higher lows. We are suggesting readers wait for a new relative low under $48.70 before initiating new plays. Our target is the $45.15-44.00 range. In the news today ERTS announced that it was joining forces with Nettwerk One Music Ltd to form Artwerk a new music label.

Picked on March 18 at $ 48.92
Change since picked: + 1.42
Earnings Date 05/03/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.0 million
 

Strangle Updates

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Dropped Calls

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Dropped Puts

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Dropped Strangles

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