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Call Updates

Apple Inc. - AAPL - cls: 95.46 chg: -0.39 stop: 88.85

AAPL weathered the market weakness on Tuesday relatively well. The stock did trade down 0.4% but not after hitting a new relative high at $96.83. Boosting the stock was news that Cingular, the mobile arm of AT&T, announced that they've already had one million customers inquire about the upcoming iPhone from Apple. The strength in AAPL didn't last and this might be a short-term top. More conservative traders should strongly consider exiting now to lock in a gain. We remain optimistic and continue to target the $97.50-100.00 range.

Picked on March 19 at $ 91.01
Change since picked: + 4.84
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 35 million

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Allegheny Tech. - ATI - cls: 106.90 chg: -1.72 stop: 105.75

ATI suffered another round of profit taking but traders continue to buy the dips and bulls bought the dip twice near $106.30 today. We don't see any changes from our weekend comments. We're suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $110.26. If triggered our target is the $117.00-120.00 range. An alternative entry for the more nimble trader would be a dip near $105.00-106.00. FYI: The P&F chart points to a $123 target. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report. Caution, we do see a bearish divergence between price and the MACD on the daily chart.

Picked on March xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.6 million

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Boeing - BA - close: 90.52 chg: -0.31 stop: 88.95

BA is still churning sideways near the $90 level. We don't see any changes from our weekend comments. More aggressive traders might want to consider new positions now. We're going to stick to our plan, which is to wait for a breakout over resistance near $92.00. Our suggested entry point to buy calls is at $92.15. If triggered our target is the $99.50-100.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report. The P&F chart is already bullish and points to a $107 target.

Picked on March xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.2 million

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Bunge Ltd. - BG - cls: 80.28 chg: -1.47 stop: 77.95

Tuesday's market weakness must have been a good excuse to do some profit taking in BG. The stock erased most of Monday's gains with today's 1.8% decline. The only good thing about today's pull back was the light volume. We would watch for a bounce near the $80 level as a new entry point to buy calls. Our target is the $85.00-85.50 range. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on March 26 at $ 80.75
Change since picked: - 0.47
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 990 thousand

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CACI Intl - CAI - cls: 47.94 chg: -0.15 stop: 46.64

Shares of CAI didn't move much on Tuesday. The stock continues to trade sideways near $48.00 and above its 50-dma. Readers can choose to buy this dip or wait for a new rally past $48.50. More conservative traders may want to wait for a move over the January 18th high near $48.90 first. Our target is the $52.50 mark. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings. FYI: The P&F chart is still bearish from the big drop in January.

Picked on March 21 at $ 48.36
Change since picked: - 0.42
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 517 thousand

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Chaparral Steel - CHAP - cls: 56.98 chg: +0.00 stop: 51.75

We considered CHAP closing unchanged on Tuesday as a sign of relative strength. Shares traded sideways in a 70-cent range and were inching higher by the closing bell. Our target is the $59.50-60.00 range. The P&F chart has a triple-top breakout buy signal with a $72 target.

Picked on March 25 at $ 55.73
Change since picked: + 1.25
Earnings Date 03/20/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 627 thousand

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Celgene - CELG - close: 53.04 chg: -0.96 stop: 49.95

Uh-oh! We warned readers to watch for a potential dip toward $53.00 but we didn't expect CELG to under perform the BTK biotech index so much today. The BTK index managed a 0.4% gain. CELG lost 1.78% and broke down under its simple 50-dma. Wait for signs of a bounce before considering new positions. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. Our target is the $57.50-60.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on March 19 at $ 52.65
Change since picked: + 0.39
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.5 million

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ConocoPhillips - COP - cls: 69.48 chg: -0.08 stop: 64.85

Another day of gains for crude oil was not enough to push shares of COP past resistance at the $70.00 mark. Shares of COP traded sideways in a 73-cent range. If you're looking for a new entry point consider waiting and watching for a dip into the $68.75-68.50 range or wait for a breakout over $70.00. We're aiming for the $74.00-75.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on March 20 at $ 66.31
Change since picked: + 3.17
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 12.1 million

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Holly Corp. - HOC - cls: 60.52 chg: -0.29 stop: 56.45

HOC suffered another round of profit taking in spite of a decent gain for crude oil. Thus far HOC is holding its gains above the $60 mark, which is encouraging. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $62.00-62.50 range.

Picked on March 14 at $ 57.87
Change since picked: + 2.65
Earnings Date 05/14/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 651 thousand

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Johnson Controls - JCI - cls: 94.44 chg: -0.46 stop: 93.99

JCI continues to look weak and vulnerable here. The stock lost 0.4% and dipped toward technical support at its 50-dma. We are not suggesting new positions and suggest that more conservative traders exit early right here. Odds are very good that if the major averages are weak tomorrow that JCI will hit our $93.99 stop loss. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on March 21 at $ 96.03
Change since picked: - 1.59
Earnings Date 04/20/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = million

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Accredited Home Lenders - LEND - cls: 10.55 chg: -0.26 stop: n/a

An earnings warning from homebuilder Lennar (LEN) and news that the spring selling season has yet to materialize sent shivers through the market and hit the homebuilders and lenders hard. LEND gapped open lower and dipped to $9.40 before bouncing back. More conservative traders may want to exit immediately to protect any gains they have or at least consider placing a stop loss under the $9.40 level. We are not suggesting new positions. We are planning to exit on any take-out news or a rally into the $14-15 range.

Picked on March 14 at $ 6.04
Change since picked: + 4.51
Earnings Date 05/16/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.0 million

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Lockheed Martin - LMT - cls: 98.18 chg: -0.24 stop: 97.49

There is nothing new to report on for LMT. The stock is still trading sideways. Today's news out of ITT did not seem to influence other defense contractors. We remain on the sidelines. We're suggesting a trigger to buy calls in LMT at $100.25. If triggered our short-term target is $104.85-105.00. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher since the P&F chart aims at a $128 target. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on March xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.8 million

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New Century - NEWC - close: 1.41 chg: -0.15 stop: n/a

The bad news out of homebuilder Lennar also hit the subprime lenders and NEWC slipped almost 10%. We don't have very high expectations at this point. We initially added NEWC as a lottery ticket play with a big risk and big reward on the speculation that someone would step in and buy the company. So far that has failed to materialize. It could still happen but we wouldn't bet on it any further. Thus we're not suggesting new positions.

Picked on March 11 at $ 3.21
Change since picked: - 1.70
Earnings Date 11/02/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.7 million

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Sunoco - SUN - close: 70.92 chg: +0.19 stop: 65.65

Strength in crude oil helped the refiners and SUN posted a 0.2% gain. Traders stepped in to buy the dip near the $70.00 level. We see the intraday bounce as a new entry point to buy calls. The P&F chart is very bullish with an $82 target. Our target is the $74.00-75.00 range. Please note that we're adjusting the stop loss to $65.65.

Picked on March 20 at $ 68.15
Change since picked: + 2.77
Earnings Date 05/02/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.8 million
 

Put Updates

Bausch Lomb - BOL - cls: 49.47 change: -0.03 stop: 52.51

It was a quiet day for BOL. There was no big follow through lower on the recent failed rally near $50.00. Instead BOL churned sideways in a 44-cent range. Overall the trend remains bearish and we'd still consider new positions with the stock under $49.50. More conservative traders can tighten their stops. Our target is the $44.00-42.50 range but we want to warn readers that BOL may find some support near $47.50 and its December 2006 low.

Picked on March 18 at $ 49.51
Change since picked: - 0.04
Earnings Date 00/00/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 678 thousand

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Beazer Homes - BZH - close: 31.41 chg: -0.91 stop: 35.05 *new*

Homebuilder Lennar (LEN) issued an earnings warning and said that the spring selling season had failed to materialize. This hit the homebuilders hard. Shares of BZH fell 2.8% and closed at a new relative low on big volume. The intraday low today was $30.85, which is quickly approaching our target in the $30.50-30.00 range. More conservative traders may want to exit early now to lock in a gain. Please note we're adjusting our stop loss to $35.05. FYI: Traders should note that BZH does have a relatively high amount of short interest (17% of the float) and that does raise the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on March 12 at $ 34.20
Change since picked: - 2.79
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million
 

Strangle Updates

None
 

Dropped Calls

ESSEX Prop. - ESS - cls: 129.26 chg: -2.90 stop: 129.75

We have been stopped out of ESS at $129.75. We suspect the news from homebuilder Lennar (LEN) is what sparked the sell-off in anything related to real estate. ESS plunged through the $130 level early this morning. It's really too bad that investors overreacted in ESS. The stock hit an intraday high of $135.95 just two days ago, which was close to our $137-140 target range.

Picked on March 12 at $130.26
Change since picked: - 1.00
Earnings Date 02/07/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 196 thousand
 

Dropped Puts

Electronic Arts - ERTS - cls: 51.31 chg: +0.97 stop: 51.55

We have been stopped out of ERTS at $51.55. Some of the news reports today claim that the rally in ERTS was due to the news that the company was joining forces with Nettwerk and creating a new music label. We don't think so. That news hit the wires yesterday afternoon while the market was still open. The news out of Gamestop (GME) is the likely culprit behind ERTS' rally. GME reported better than expected earnings and offered positive earnings guidance. Shares of GME gapped open higher and closed with an 11.4% gain.

Picked on March 18 at $ 48.92
Change since picked: + 2.39
Earnings Date 05/03/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.0 million
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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