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Call Updates

Apple Inc. - AAPL - cls: 93.24 chg: -2.22 stop: 88.85

Another day of market declines fueled by rising fears of a conflict with Iran sparked some profit taking in AAPL, which had hit new two-month highs just yesterday. AAPL slipped 2.3% and looks poised to hit the simple 10-dma soon. We would wait and watch for a bounce before considering new positions. We'd like to see a rebound from the 10-dma but we suspect that AAPL will dip toward $92 and maybe toward $91.00. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops toward the $90 level. Our target is the $97.50-100.00 range.

Picked on March 19 at $ 91.01
Change since picked: + 2.23
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 35 million

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Allegheny Tech. - ATI - cls: 105.10 chg: -1.80 stop: 105.75

Fortunately, we're still on the sidelines with ATI. Aggressive traders might want to consider buying a bounce from $105 or $104. We're waiting for a breakout over resistance at the $110 level. We're suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $110.26. If triggered our target is the $117.00-120.00 range. FYI: The P&F chart points to a $123 target. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report. Caution, we do see a bearish divergence between price and the MACD on the daily chart.

Picked on March xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.6 million

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Boeing - BA - close: 89.45 chg: -1.07 stop: 88.95

The trading in BA on Wednesday looks bearish. Shares appeared to break down from its two-week trading range and the stock is poised to drop under its 50-dma and 100-dma. If the stock continues lower the next level of support looks like the $85 region. Currently we are still waiting for a breakout over resistance near $92.00. We've been suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $92.15. If triggered our target is the $99.50-100.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report. The P&F chart is already bullish and points to a $107 target.

Picked on March xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.2 million

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Bunge Ltd. - BG - cls: 81.61 chg: +1.33 stop: 77.95

BG displayed relative strength on Wednesday. The stock crept higher with a trend of higher lows all session long. The stock looks ready to breakout past the $82 level soon. We remain optimistic but hesitate to suggest new bullish positions given the widespread market weakness. Our target is the $85.00-85.50 range. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on March 26 at $ 80.75
Change since picked: + 0.86
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 990 thousand

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CACI Intl - CAI - cls: 47.20 chg: -0.74 stop: 46.84 *new*

It doesn't look good for CAI. The stock continued lower and closed down 1.5% albeit on below average volume. The stock closed right on its 50-dma so there is a chance for a bounce but we're not suggesting new positions at this time. Actually more conservative traders may want to abandon the play now and exit early. We are adjusting our stop loss to $46.84. Our target is the $52.50 mark. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings. FYI: The P&F chart is still bearish from the big drop in January.

Picked on March 21 at $ 48.36
Change since picked: - 1.16
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 517 thousand

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Chaparral Steel - CHAP - cls: 57.38 chg: +0.40 stop: 51.75

CHAP continues to show impressive relative strength. The stock ignored the market weakness on Wednesday and posted another gain and another new all-time high. Our target is the $59.50-60.00 range. The P&F chart has a triple-top breakout buy signal with a $72 target.

Picked on March 25 at $ 55.73
Change since picked: + 1.65
Earnings Date 03/20/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 627 thousand

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Celgene - CELG - close: 52.87 chg: -0.17 stop: 49.95

CELG is still sliding after last week's peak near $55.00. The breakdown under its 50-dma and 10-dma is not a good sign and bulls may want to exit early. We see some support near $52.00 and expect CELG will dip to that level. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops toward the $52 level. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $57.50-60.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on March 19 at $ 52.65
Change since picked: + 0.22
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.5 million

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ConocoPhillips - COP - cls: 69.24 chg: -0.24 stop: 64.85

Crude oil continues to climb as global tensions heat up with Iran still holding 15 British forces hostage. Surprisingly the strength in crude did not translate into strength in COP. We would have expected a bullish breakout over the $70 level but the market didn't agree. Shares of COP traded in a wide intraday range and eventually closed in the red. If COP provides another dip near its 10-dma we'd use it as another entry point to buy calls or wait for a breakout over $70.00 as a potential entry point. We're aiming for the $74.00-75.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on March 20 at $ 66.31
Change since picked: + 2.93
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 12.1 million

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Holly Corp. - HOC - cls: 60.01 chg: -0.51 stop: 56.45

We are also surprised that the strength in crude oil didn't help fuel the rally in HOC. Even more surprising was HOC failed to make any gains after the company announced that it expects a significant increase in profits over the next few years due to its expanding refining capacity. Instead the stock posted a bearish failed rally pattern under the $62.00 level and looks poised to move lower. We would expect a dip toward the $58 level. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $62.00-62.50 range.

Picked on March 14 at $ 57.87
Change since picked: + 2.44
Earnings Date 05/14/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 651 thousand

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Accredited Home Lenders - LEND - cls: 9.97 chg: -0.58 stop: n/a

The recent trading action in LEND doesn't look good for the bulls. The oversold bounce and short squeeze has run out of gas. Investors are still worried about a breakdown in the sub-prime market. Shares of LEND lost 5.5% and closed under what should have been support at the $10.00 mark. We strongly suggest that conservative traders who took a chance on this aggressive, high-risk play consider an early exit now. We are not suggesting new positions. We are planning to exit on any take-out news or a rally into the $14-15 range.

Picked on March 14 at $ 6.04
Change since picked: + 3.93
Earnings Date 05/16/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.0 million

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Lockheed Martin - LMT - cls: 97.18 chg: -1.00 stop: 97.49

The bounce in LMT is running out of steam and shares look headed for the $95 level and technical support at the 100-dma. Currently, we are still on the sidelines waiting for a breakout over resistance at the $100 mark. Our suggested trigger to buy calls is at $100.25. However, we're going to keep a close eye on how LMT interact with the $95 level and we may adjust our entry point if we see a convincing bounce above the 100-dma. Our target is the $104.85-105.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher since the P&F chart aims at a $128 target. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on March xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.8 million

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Millicom - MICC - cls: 77.40 chg: +1.39 stop: 72.75

MICC displayed relative strength on Wednesday with a 1.8% gain and a continuation of yesterday's reversal. The stock is now challenging short-term resistance at the $78.00 level. While we are very encouraged by the stock's strength today if the market continues to fall we would expect MICC to eventually succumb. Readers should be cautious about entering new bullish positions at this time. Our target is the $80.00-81.00 range. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with an $88 target. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on March 27 at $ 76.01
Change since picked: + 1.39
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 616 thousand

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New Century - NEWC - close: 1.11 chg: -0.30 stop: n/a

Shares of NEWC continue to implode. The stock lost another 21% today. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Odds are rising quickly that NEWC will eventually file bankruptcy before someone else makes a bid for the company.

Picked on March 11 at $ 3.21
Change since picked: - 1.70
Earnings Date 11/02/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.7 million

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Sunoco - SUN - close: 70.02 chg: -0.90 stop: 65.65

We are surprised that the strength in rising crude oil has not translated into strength for the oil stocks today. Instead SUN produced a bearish failed rally under the $72 level and produced a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. We would watch for a dip toward $68, which might prove to be a new entry point to buy calls. Our target is the $74.00-75.00 range.

Picked on March 20 at $ 68.15
Change since picked: + 1.87
Earnings Date 05/02/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.8 million
 

Put Updates

Bausch Lomb - BOL - cls: 49.12 change: -0.35 stop: 51.26*new*

BOL is still slipping and shares have found relatively stable resistance at its 10-dma directly overhead. We are adjusting the stop loss to $51.26. Our target is the $44.00-42.50 range but we want to warn readers that BOL may find some support near $47.50 and its December 2006 low.

Picked on March 18 at $ 49.51
Change since picked: - 0.39
Earnings Date 00/00/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 678 thousand
 

Strangle Updates

None
 

Dropped Calls

Johnson Controls - JCI - cls: 94.49 chg: +0.05 stop: 93.99

We have been stopped out of JCI at $93.99. Intraday weakness early this morning pulled JCI to $93.72 before the stock rebounded. The recent trading action has grown more bearish and the stock looks poised to dip toward $90.00. More nimble traders may want to switch directions and buy puts.

Picked on March 21 at $ 96.03
Change since picked: - 1.54
Earnings Date 04/20/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = million
 

Dropped Puts

Beazer Homes - BZH - close: 28.77 chg: -2.64 stop: 35.05

Target achieved. Actually BZH has exceeded our target. We were aiming for the $30.50-30.00 range. The stock gapped down to open at $28.65 this morning and dipped to $27.71 before paring its losses. The reason for BZH's 8.4% decline on massive volume was news that the company was under investigation. Evidently the FBI, IRS, and a couple more government agencies are investigating BZH and the company's lending practices.

Picked on March 12 at $ 34.20
Change since picked: - 5.43
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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