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Call Updates

Apple Inc. - AAPL - cls: 92.91 chg: -0.84 stop: 88.85

We were expecting more of an end-of-quarter window-dressing rally to push AAPL higher. Instead the stock trended down and the weekly chart's latest candlestick looks like a bearish reversal. We would expect a continued dip toward $92.00 and probably toward the $91.00-90.00 range. A bounce above $90 could be used as a new entry point. Our target is the $97.50-100.00 range.

Suggested Options:
We are not suggesting new positions at this time in AAPL. Look for a bounce above the $90 level.

Picked on March 19 at $ 91.01
Change since picked: + 1.90
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 35 million

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Allegheny Tech. - ATI - cls: 106.69 chg: -1.00 stop: 105.75

The intraday bounce near $106 has struggled two days in a row. Aggressive traders might want to consider new bullish positions with the stock above $105 (if you do you'll need to adjust your stop loss). We are sticking to our plan and waiting for a bullish breakout over resistance near $110. We're suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $110.26. If triggered our target is the $117.00-120.00 range. FYI: The P&F chart points to a $123 target. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Suggested Options:
Our trigger to buy calls is at $110.26. We're suggesting the May calls. Double check your symbols. Normally a May $110 call would be -EB, but the CBOE is listing ATI's as -EX.

BUY CALL MAY 105 ATI-EA open interest=412 current ask $7.30
BUY CALL MAY 110 ATI-EX open interest=575 current ask $4.80
BUY CALL MAY 115 ATI-EC open interest=581 current ask $2.95

Picked on March xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.6 million

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Bunge Ltd. - BG - cls: 82.22 chg: -0.02 stop: 77.95

There has been a positive current under the agriculture plays. BG has definitely been showing relative strength. The stock hit a new four-week high on Friday at $83.75 before succumbing to profit taking. If BG dips back toward $80 we'd watch for a bounce as a new entry point. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stop loss. Our target is the $85.00-85.50 range. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Suggested Options:
We are not suggesting new call positions in BG at this time. Wait for a new entry point.

Picked on March 26 at $ 80.75
Change since picked: + 1.45
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 990 thousand

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Chaparral Steel - CHAP - cls: 58.17 chg: -0.42 stop: 54.95

CHAP made another rally attempt on Friday morning but failed to make it past the $59.25 level. Shares still look poised to move higher and odds look decent that CHAP will hit our target in the $59.50-60.00 range soon. This close to our target we're not suggesting new positions. The P&F chart has a triple-top breakout buy signal with a $72 target.

Suggested Options:
We are not suggesting new plays in CHAP at this time.

Picked on March 25 at $ 55.73
Change since picked: + 2.44
Earnings Date 03/20/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 627 thousand

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Celgene - CELG - close: 52.46 chg: -0.24 stop: 49.95

CELG under performed its biotech peers on Friday. The BTK index broke out above technical resistance at the 100-dma and broke out from a weeklong consolidation pattern. Meanwhile shares of CELG continued to slip toward what should be support near $52.00. Shares hit an intraday low of $51.72 before bouncing back. We would suggest waiting for a new rally past $53.00 (or maybe the 50-dma near $53.55) before initiating new call positions. Our target is the $57.50-60.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Suggested Options:
We would wait for a new rally past $53.00 before considering new call positions. We like the May strikes.

Picked on March 19 at $ 52.65
Change since picked: - 0.19
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.5 million

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ConocoPhillips - COP - cls: 68.35 chg: -0.82 stop: 64.85

This past week was disappointing for the oil stocks. Crude oil surged higher on the Iran-Britain-US conflict yet shares of COP failed to make it past resistance near $70.00. The trading action in COP actually looks bearish. However, as much as we would hope for a peaceful solution to the 15 British servicemen held hostage, we don't see it happening. Iran will do anything to keep from losing face in front of its Arabic and Muslim neighbors. As the conflict gets worse oil will continue to rise and oil stocks will eventually move with it. We would wait and watch for a bounce in COP before considering new positions. We're aiming for the $74.00-75.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Suggested Options:
Wait for signs of a bounce before initiating new positions in COP. We like the May calls.

Picked on March 20 at $ 66.31
Change since picked: + 2.04
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 12.1 million

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Holly Corp. - HOC - cls: 59.30 chg: -0.43 stop: 56.45

HOC is another oil stock that under performed this past week. Shares were streaking to new all-time highs two weeks ago. Last week the momentum ran out of gas. Shares have now broke short-term support at $60.00 and its 10-dma. We are expecting a dip near $58.00. Wait and watch for a bounce near $58.00 before considering new positions. Our target is the $62.00-62.50 range. FYI: The weekly candlestick chart might have produced a bearish "dark cloud cover" pattern.

Suggested Options:
We are not suggesting new positions at this time. Wait for a bounce. We like the May calls.

Picked on March 14 at $ 57.87
Change since picked: + 1.43
Earnings Date 05/14/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 651 thousand

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Lockheed Martin - LMT - cls: 97.02 chg: -1.08 stop: 97.49

Aerospace and defense contractive LMT has seen it's upward momentum struggle, just like sector-mate Boeing (BA). The stock is inching lower and looks poised to dip toward what should be support near $95.00 and its 100-dma. Currently, we are still on the sidelines waiting for a breakout over resistance near $100. Our suggested trigger to buy calls is at $100.25. However, we're going to keep a close eye on the $95 level and if LMT produces a convincing bounce near $95 we might suggest aggressive positions there (obviously with an adjusted stop loss). Our target is the $104.85-105.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher since the P&F chart aims at a $128 target. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Suggested Options:
We are not suggesting new positions in LMT at this time. Wait and watch for an entry point. We like the May calls.

Picked on March xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.8 million

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Millicom - MICC - cls: 78.36 chg: -0.10 stop: 73.49 *new*

MICC managed to trade to new highs for the month of March before paring its gains and slipping into the red on Friday. The stock turned in a strong week but might be poised for some profit taking soon. A dip (or bounce) near $76.00 could be used as a new entry point. We are adjusting our stop loss to $73.49, which is under technical support at the rising 50-dma. More conservative traders may want to use a tighter stop. Our target is the $80.00-81.00 range. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with an $88 target. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Suggested Options:
If MICC pulls back and provides another entry point we'd suggest the May calls.

Picked on March 27 at $ 76.01
Change since picked: + 2.35
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 616 thousand

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New Century - NEWC - close: 1.03 chg: +0.03 stop: n/a

We are not suggesting new plays in NEWC at this time. It was a speculative lottery-ticket style play and at this point it does not look like it's going to pan out. The company looks closer to filing for bankruptcy than having someone make an offer for it.

Suggested Options:
We are not suggesting new plays in NEWC.

Picked on March 11 at $ 3.21
Change since picked: - 1.67
Earnings Date 11/02/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.7 million

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Sunoco - SUN - close: 70.44 chg: +0.13 stop: 65.65

SUN spiked higher on Friday morning and option volume soared as rumors surfaced that the company might be a takeover candidate. Unfortunately, the rally failed near resistance at the $72 level, which has held all week long. The trend is bullish but after multiple failed rallies at the $72 level we're starting to wonder if SUN is poised to pull back first. A bounce from $70 could be used as a new entry point but we suspect that shares could easily dip toward the $68 level, which should be short-term support. We remain bullish on the oil stocks given the conflict rising with Iran. Our target is the $74.00-75.00 range.

Suggested Options:
Watch for a new entry point before considering call positions on SUN.

Picked on March 20 at $ 68.15
Change since picked: + 2.29
Earnings Date 05/02/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.8 million
 

Put Updates

None
 

Strangle Updates

None
 

Dropped Calls

Boeing - BA - close: 88.91 chg: -0.85 stop: 88.95

BA continues to show relative weakness. The stock appears to be breaking down from a two-week consolidation pattern and volume is rising as the stock slips through support. Shares are testing technical support at the 100-dma and look poised to breakdown further. If it does BA's next level of support looks like the $85 zone. We were waiting on a breakout over resistance near $92.00 with a suggested trigger to buy calls at $92.15. We're dropping this play unopened.

Picked on March xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.2 million

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CACI Intl - CAI - cls: 46.86 chg: -0.63 stop: 46.84

We have been stopped out of CAI. A week of mild declines culminated into a spike lower on Friday morning. Shares hit an intraday low of $46.55 and broke down under its 50-dma. Our stop loss was $46.84.

Picked on March 21 at $ 48.36
Change since picked: - 1.50
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 517 thousand

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Accredited Home Lenders - LEND - cls: 9.27 chg: +0.03 stop: n/a

We are suggesting an early exit in LEND. Our initial plan was to buy calls on the spike down and then exit on the gap higher when someone makes a bid to buy the company. Thus far there has been no buyout bid. Short-covering powered a rebound from $3.97 to $13.75 but after the initial bounce shares have struggled. If you believe that LEND will indeed be bought out then you may want to keep a small speculative position alive. Keep in mind that market chatter put any buyout bid in the $14-16 range. After two weeks we are jumping out before LEND implodes like shares of New Century.

Picked on March 14 at $ 6.04
Change since picked: + 3.86
Earnings Date 05/16/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.0 million
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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