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Call Updates

Apple Inc. - AAPL - cls: 93.65 chg: +0.74 stop: 88.85

Positive news about a deal between AAPL and EMI helped the stock rise 0.8% but on relatively low volume. The news this morning was a deal with EMI offering its entire library free of anti-piracy software (DRM) for $1.29 through AAPL's iTunes store. We remain bullish on the stock but lack of volume behind the rally is a concern. We would not be surprised to see another dip. Our target is the $97.50-100.00 range.

Picked on March 19 at $ 91.01
Change since picked: + 1.90
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 35 million

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Allegheny Tech. - ATI - cls: 108.87 chg: +2.18 stop: 105.75

ATI continues to look stronger. Shares rose 2% and they're nearing resistance at the $110 mark. We are sticking to our plan and waiting for a bullish breakout over resistance near $110. We're suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $110.26. If triggered our target is the $117.00-120.00 range. FYI: The P&F chart points to a $123 target. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on March xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.6 million

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Bunge Ltd. - BG - cls: 83.69 chg: +1.47 stop: 77.95

The first trading day of April turned out to be a strong one for BG. Traders bought the dip near $82 this morning and the stock closed up with a 1.78% gain. Shares are nearing our target in the $85.00-85.50 range. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on March 26 at $ 80.75
Change since picked: + 2.94
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 990 thousand

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Chaparral Steel - CHAP - cls: 58.87 chg: +0.70 stop: 54.95

CHAP continues to march higher. Bulls jumped on the dip near $58 this morning and the stock posted a 1.2% gain by the closing bell. Volume did come in relatively low and that's a caution sign for the bulls. The stock is quickly nearing our target in the $59.50-60.00 range. This close to our target we're not suggesting new positions. The P&F chart has a triple-top breakout buy signal with a $72 target.

Picked on March 25 at $ 55.73
Change since picked: + 3.14
Earnings Date 03/20/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 627 thousand

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Celgene - CELG - close: 53.80 chg: +1.34 stop: 49.95

CELG out performed its peers in the biotech sector and the rest of the NASDAQ with a strong 2.5% gain today. The stock rallied past its 10-dma and 50-dma. The move over $53.00 and $53.50 looks like a new entry point. Our target is the $57.50-60.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on March 19 at $ 52.65
Change since picked: + 1.15
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.5 million

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ConocoPhillips - COP - cls: 68.19 chg: -0.16 stop: 64.85

Intraday crude oil spiked higher but a lack of new developments with the Iran hostage story left crude trading closer to unchanged by the session's end. Oil stocks were generally higher but shares of COP under performed its peers. Oddly, COP appears to be ignoring strength in crude and actually looks poised to move lower at least short-term. We would be cautious about starting new positions. We're aiming for the $74.00-75.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on March 20 at $ 66.31
Change since picked: + 1.88
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 12.1 million

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Holly Corp. - HOC - cls: 59.00 chg: -0.30 stop: 56.45

HOC is another oil stock that is under performing crude and the oil sector. The stock is down six days in a row so it's probably due for a bounce soon. We have been expecting a dip near $58.00. Wait and watch for a bounce near $58.00 before considering new positions. Our target is the $62.00-62.50 range.

Picked on March 14 at $ 57.87
Change since picked: + 1.13
Earnings Date 05/14/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 651 thousand

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Lockheed Martin - LMT - cls: 96.93 chg: -0.09 stop: 97.49

We see no changes from our weekend comments on LMT. News that the company had won several new deals today failed to inspire any buying pressure. The stock is still slipping toward support near $95 and the 100-dma. Currently, we are still on the sidelines waiting for a breakout over resistance near $100. Our suggested trigger to buy calls is at $100.25. However, we're going to keep a close eye on the $95 level and if LMT produces a convincing bounce near $95 we might suggest aggressive positions there (obviously with an adjusted stop loss). Our target is the $104.85-105.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher since the P&F chart aims at a $128 target. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on March xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.8 million

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Sunoco - SUN - close: 71.51 chg: +1.07 stop: 65.65

SUN bounced from short-term support near $70 and its rising 10-dma but failed to breakout over resistance near $72.00. The stock closed the session up 1.5%. Our target is the $74.00-75.00 range.

Picked on March 20 at $ 68.15
Change since picked: + 3.36
Earnings Date 05/02/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.8 million
 

Put Updates

F5 Networks - FFIV - cls: 64.89 chg: -1.79 stop: 71.01

FFIV continued to under perform the markets on Monday. The stock dropped 2.68% and on above average volume. Today's decline was a bearish breakdown under the exponential 200-dma. FFIV's next level of potential support is the post-October 2006 gap low near $63.50 and the simple 200-dma near $62.50. However, the P&F chart looks very bearish with a breakdown under support and a $58 price target. We're going to aim for the $60.50-60.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report. FYI: FFIV can be volatile so expect a lot of up and downs in the option prices.

Picked on April 01 at $ 66.68
Change since picked: - 1.79
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million

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MDC Holdings - MDC - cls: 48.03 chg: -0.04 stop: 50.05

Homebuilders were trading lower today but MDC managed to maintain its hold on the $48.00 level. We don't see any changes from our weekend comments. The recent news about a Federal investigation into Beazer (BZH) doesn't build any confidence for investors. MDC also has a mortgage arm and could see its own investigation of its lending practices. We are suggesting that readers buy puts on a breakdown under $47.00. We'll use a trigger at $46.95 as our suggested entry point. If triggered our target is the $41.00-40.00 range. Prepare for some support near $45.00. The P&F chart looks very bearish with a $35 target. We do not want to hold over the mid-April earnings report so our target might be a little optimistic. Then again, stocks tend to drop faster than they rise.

Picked on April xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/19/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 870 thousand
 

Strangle Updates

None
 

Dropped Calls

Millicom - MICC - cls: 80.39 chg: +2.03 stop: 73.49

Target achieved. Actually, MICC exceeded our target in the $80.00-81.00 range with an intraday high of $81.39. We were suggesting traders exit under $82.00 because the stock encountered resistance there back in February. More aggressive traders might want to aim higher. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with an $88 target.

Picked on March 27 at $ 76.01
Change since picked: + 4.38
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 616 thousand

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New Century - NEWC - close: 0.915 chg: -0.145 stop: n/a

It looks like it's game over for NEWC. The company filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy today. We had been speculating that someone would make a bid for the company before they filed for bankruptcy. Now that the company has filed we're dropping it as a play.

Picked on March 11 at $ 3.21
Change since picked: - 2.30
Earnings Date 11/02/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.7 million
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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