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Call Updates

Advance Auto Parts - AAP - cls: 39.48 chg: -0.08 stop: 37.95

There is no change from our weekend new play description on AAP. The stock is still consolidating under resistance near $40.00. We are suggesting a trigger to buy calls on AAP at $40.05 to capture any breakout higher. If triggered our target is the $44.50-45.00 range. We do not want to hold over the mid-May earnings report. FYI: The P&F chart points to a $48 target.

Picked on April xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 05/17/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 854 thousand

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Apple Inc. - AAPL - cls: 93.68 chg: -1.03 stop: 89.49

Reversal alert warning! Shares of AAPL produced a failed rally and bearish engulfing candlestick pattern with Monday's performance. The stock's relative weakness (-1%) is a surprise following news that the company has sold over 100 million iPods. A couple of analysts firms deduced that means AAPL sold close to 11 million this last quarter, which suggests a strong performance for the company. We are not suggesting new positions at this time and given today's technical turnaround more conservative traders may want to exit early to lock in a minor gain or avoid any losses. We would expect a dip toward $92.00 and probably back toward the $90 level, which should be support. We do not want to hold positions over the April 25th earnings report and plan to exit ahead of the announcement. More aggressive traders wanting to ride any pre-launch excitement for Apple's iPhone may want to break this rule and hold positions for several more weeks.

Picked on March 19 at $ 91.01
Change since picked: + 2.64
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 35 million

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Allegheny Tech. - ATI - cls: 113.34 chg: +2.48 stop: 105.75

ATI displayed relative strength on Monday. The stock spiked to a new all-time high ($114.34) before paring its gains and closing with a 2.2% gain. We don't see any changes from our weekend comments except that if you're looking for a new position consider waiting for a dip above $110. More conservative traders may want to use a tighter stop loss. FYI: The P&F chart points to a $123 target. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on April 03 at $110.26
Change since picked: + 3.08
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.6 million

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Boston Properties - BXP - cls: 118.74 chg: +0.65 stop: 114.49

Lack of follow through on last week's late failed rally under $120 is a good sign for BXP. Volume came in pretty low on today's rebound. We suggest sticking to the plan, which is to wait for a breakout over $120. Our suggested trigger to open positions is $120.75. More conservative traders may want to put their trigger above the 50-dma near $121.26. If triggered at $120.75 our target is the $127.00-130.00 range. Technical traders will note that most of the indicators are turning positive and BXP appears to have produced a potential double-bottom, which is bullish, with the two March lows. We do not want to hold over the April 24th earnings report.

Picked on April xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 million

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Caterpillar - CAT - cls: 67.34 chg: -0.29 stop: 65.45

CAT displayed some early strength and pierced resistance at $68.00 right after the open. The intraday high was $68.19 before shares reversed course and closed with a loss. Our suggested trigger to buy calls is at $68.55 so we're still on the sidelines. More aggressive traders might want to buy a bounce from here near its 10-dma. We suggest waiting for the new relative high (above $68.50). If triggered at $68.55 our target is the $73.00-74.00 range under the August 2006 highs. Traders should keep in mind that we do not want to hold over CAT's earnings report, which has recently been confirmed as April 20th. That gives us less than two full weeks to see the play triggered and run toward our target. It is very possible but each passing day makes it less likely.

Picked on April xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/20/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.3 million

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Cigna - CI - close: 147.66 chg: +0.04 stop: 141.39

The trend in CI is still up but momentum definitely slowed on Monday. We don't see any changes from our weekend comments.. Our suggested trigger to buy calls was at $147.75, above recent resistance near $147.50. Short-term technicals are turning positive again after the stock's five-day bounce. If shares do see any profit taking/consolidation we would watch for a bounce in the $145-144 region, which readers could use as a new entry point. Our target is the $154.50-155.00 range. We do expect some resistance near $150 but given the stock's momentum CI should be able to plow through it. We do not want to hold over the May 2nd earnings report.

Picked on April 05 at $147.75
Change since picked: - 0.09
Earnings Date 05/02/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 910 thousand

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Core Labs - CLB - cls: 87.30 chg: -0.05 stop: 81.95

It was a very rough day for crude oil. The commodity slid 4.3% and broke down under technical support at its 200-dma. The technical breakdown is a big concern and traders may want to think twice about launching new bullish positions in oil stocks - at least short-term. Long-term we remain bullish on the sector. CLB displayed some relative strength this morning with a rally to $89.12 but the stock reversed midday and gave almost all of its gains back. We would wait and watch for a bounce near $86.00 or worst case a bounce in the $82-83 range before considering new positions. The P&F chart is bullish with a $115 target. Currently we have two targets. Our conservative target is $92.00. Our aggressive target is the $97.50-100.00 range, which might be a too optimistic given our time frame. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on April 08 at $ 87.25
Change since picked: + 0.05
Earnings Date 04/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 275 thousand

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ConocoPhillips - COP - cls: 68.42 chg: +0.46 stop: 64.85

COP turned in a volatile session. The stock hit an intraday low near $66.25 early this morning and then rebounded to hit a new one-week high over its 10-dma at $69.16 before paring its gains. Technically the move today looks like a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern, which is normally seen as a bullish reversal buy signal. Yet we would suggest caution given the big sell-off in crude oil and the technical breakdown in crude oil under its own 200-dma. We're aiming for the $74.00-75.00 range in COP. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on March 20 at $ 66.31
Change since picked: + 2.11
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 12.1 million

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Holly Corp. - HOC - cls: 61.20 chg: +0.44 stop: 57.45

Target achieved. HOC rallied midday and hit an intraday high of $62.34, which was above resistance at the $62.00 level. Unfortunately, the stock failed to hold its gains and slipped lower on the big sell-off in crude. Yet the intraday strength was enough to hit our original, more conservative target in the $62.00-62.50 range. We still have an aggressive target in the $64.75-65.00 range. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $74 target.

Picked on March 14 at $ 57.87
Change since picked: + 3.33
Earnings Date 05/07/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 651 thousand

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Infosys - INFY - cls: 52.56 chg: +0.73 stop: 49.79

INFY displayed relative strength on Monday with a 1.4% gain. Volume has been declining since earlier this month but still came in at respectable levels. We listed INFY as a speculative, higher-risk call play because shares were bouncing near round-number support at the $50 level, near technical support at its rising, simple 200-dma and near technical support at its 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Our target is the $54.75-55.00 range, where we expect shares to encounter resistance with the 50-dma and 100-dma overhead. We plan to exit on Thursday, April 12th to avoid earnings on Friday the next day. Given our time frame you may not want to open new positions.

Picked on April 03 at $ 51.69
Change since picked: + 0.87
Earnings Date 04/13/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million

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Lockheed Martin - LMT - cls: 98.03 chg: +1.32 stop: 97.49

LMT showed some unexpected strength on Monday. The stock rallied to a 1.3% gain. Volume came in below average, so it's hard to put much confidence behind today's move. Our suggested trigger to buy calls is at $100.25. Our target is the $104.85-105.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher since the P&F chart aims at a $128 target. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on March xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.8 million

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Nucor - NUE - cls: 67.50 chg: +0.99 stop: 63.89

Our new call play in NUE is now open. The stock actually gapped open at $67.45 this morning and rallied just above the $68.00 level before pulling back toward where it opened. Our suggested trigger to buy calls was at $67.55. Our target is the $72.50-75.00 range. We would aim higher but we don't have much time. Traders will need to exit ahead of the April 19th earnings report. FYI: We do expect some resistance at $70. Don't be surprised to see NUE bounce around the $67.50-70.00 range for a couple of days.

Picked on April 09 at $ 67.55
Change since picked: - 0.05
Earnings Date 04/19/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.8 million
 

Put Updates

F5 Networks - FFIV - cls: 67.64 chg: +0.96 stop: 71.01

A positive day for tech stocks, in spite of AMD's earnings warning, helped FFIV rebound for a 1.4% gain. Volume came in above average and FFIV managed to close above short-term resistance at its 10-dma. This is not a good sign for the bears but we wouldn't panic yet. A failed rally under $69 or $70 could be used as a new bearish entry point to buy puts. Our target is the $60.50-60.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report. FYI: FFIV can be volatile so expect a lot of up and downs in the option prices.

Picked on April 01 at $ 66.68
Change since picked: + 0.96
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million

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MDC Holdings - MDC - cls: 49.65 chg: +0.61 stop: 50.05

MDC is still bouncing and shares are heading toward the top of its two-week trading range near $50.00. Aggressive traders might want to consider buying puts on a failed rally under $50. We're sticking to our plan with a suggested trigger to buy puts at $46.95. If triggered our target is the $41.00-40.00 range. Prepare for some support near $45.00. The P&F chart looks very bearish with a $35 target. We do not want to hold over the mid-April earnings report so our target might be a little optimistic. Then again, stocks tend to drop faster than they rise.

Picked on April xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/19/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 870 thousand
 

Strangle Updates

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Dropped Calls

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Dropped Puts

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Dropped Strangles

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