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Call Updates

Advance Auto Parts - AAP - cls: 40.15 chg: +0.36 stop: 37.95

AAP displayed relative strength and ignored the widespread market weakness to breakout over resistance at the $40.00 level. We were suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $40.05. Now that the play is open our target is the $44.50-45.00 range. We do not want to hold over the mid-May earnings report. FYI: The P&F chart points to a $48 target.

Picked on April 11 at $ 40.05
Change since picked: + 0.10
Earnings Date 05/17/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 854 thousand

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Apple Inc. - AAPL - cls: 92.59 chg: -1.66 stop: 89.49

There shouldn't be any surprises here. We have been warning readers that AAPL looked poised to move lower for the last several days. We suggested that readers watch for support near $92.00 and then again near $90.00. AAPL slipped 1.7% toward the $92 level today. Lack of momentum has turned the short-term technical indicators bearish so we're expecting the dip to trade near the $90 region. Our target is the $97.50-100.00 range. We do not want to hold positions over the April 25th earnings report and plan to exit ahead of the announcement. More aggressive traders wanting to ride any pre-launch excitement for Apple's iPhone may want to break this rule and hold positions for several more weeks.

Picked on March 19 at $ 91.01
Change since picked: + 1.58
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 35 million

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Allegheny Tech. - ATI - cls: 111.55 chg: -0.66 stop: 105.75

Recent winners in the steel sector, like ATI, couldn't avoid the profit taking that hit the markets today. Shares fell 0.58% on almost average volume. Thus far broken resistance at $110 is holding up as support. We would still consider new entries if ATI bounces from the $110 level but more conservative traders may want to tighten their stops (maybe into the $107-108.50 region). Our target is the $117.00-120.00 range. FYI: The P&F chart points to a $123 target. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on April 03 at $110.26
Change since picked: + 1.29
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.6 million

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Boston Properties - BXP - cls: 116.56 chg: -1.51 stop: 114.49

Negative news on the real estate market sent the REITs trading lower. The National Association of Realtors reported that they expect a fractional decline in home prices for 2007. This is the first annual decline in about 40 years. Investors did not respond well to the news. Shares of BXP dropped 1.2% and broke down under technical support at its 10-dma and 100-dma. The stock looks poised to trade toward its recent lows near $113.50. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. Our plan was to buy a breakout over $120 with a trigger at $120.75. We do not want to hold over the April 24th earnings report.

Picked on April xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 million

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Caterpillar - CAT - cls: 66.35 chg: -0.60 stop: 65.45

CAT continues to consolidate lower. The recent failed rally near the $68 level is starting to look more and more like a bearish reversal and short-term top. The MACD on the daily chart just turned negative. Fortunately, we're still on the sidelines. It was our plan to buy calls with a trigger at $68.55. We are waiting to see if CAT can bounce from the $66 level or not. A bounce tomorrow or Friday and we'll keep watching. If CAT slips under $65.50 or the 200-dma we'll drop it as a bullish candidate. If triggered at $68.55 our target is the $73.00-74.00 range under the August 2006 highs. Traders should keep in mind that we do not want to hold over CAT's earnings report, which has recently been confirmed as April 20th. That doesn't give us a lot of time and less nimble traders may want to avoid CAT altogether at this point.

Picked on April xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/20/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.3 million

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Cigna - CI - close: 146.89 chg: -1.65 stop: 141.39

Short-term technicals are starting to look dangerously close to a bearish reversal in CI. Shares of CI plunged this morning toward the $146 level before bouncing at the 10-dma. The longer-term up trend is still intact but short-term the lack of momentum looks dangerous. CI could easily dip toward $144 or even the 50-dma near $141.50 before bouncing and not break the long-term up trend. We would hesitate to open new positions here unless CI offered a very clear entry point. Our target is the $154.50-155.00 range. We do expect some resistance near $150. We do not want to hold over the May 2nd earnings report.

Picked on April 05 at $147.75
Change since picked: - 0.86
Earnings Date 05/02/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 910 thousand

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Core Labs - CLB - cls: 87.55 chg: -0.88 stop: 81.95

The oil inventory numbers this morning were bullish for the oil sector. Yet crude oil only gained about 12-cents. Oil stocks were unable to build on yesterday's gains. Shares of CLB look poised to dip back toward broken resistance and what should be short-term support near $86.00. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. We would wait for signs of a bounce before considering new positions. The P&F chart is bullish with a $115 target. Currently we have two targets. Our conservative target is $92.00. Our aggressive target is the $97.50-100.00 range, which might be a too optimistic given our time frame. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on April 08 at $ 87.25
Change since picked: + 0.30
Earnings Date 04/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 275 thousand

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ConocoPhillips - COP - cls: 69.23 chg: -0.22 stop: 64.85

Caution! COP has produced what looks like another failed rally (bearish reversal) at the $70.00 level today. The intraday high was $69.96 and the stock closed in the red. The big news with COP today was an announcement that the company supports regulation of greenhouse gas emissions. This is a big move coming from one of the largest U.S. (and global) oil companies. We are not suggesting new bullish positions in COP at this time. We're aiming for the $74.00-75.00 range in COP. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on March 20 at $ 66.31
Change since picked: + 2.92
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 12.1 million

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Infosys - INFY - cls: 51.97 chg: -0.11 stop: 49.79

Time is almost up! INFY is due to report earnings after the closing bell on Thursday. It has been our plan to exit at the closing bell on Thursday to avoid holding over the earnings report. Today's session was interesting given the spike higher this morning, failed rally under $53.00, and the big volume. Fueling the stock's moves today were some analysts comments. One analyst firm upgraded the stock to a "buy". Another firm started coverage with a "market perform". We are not suggesting new positions. Our target is the $54.75-55.00 range.

Picked on April 03 at $ 51.69
Change since picked: + 0.28
Earnings Date 04/13/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million

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Lockheed Martin - LMT - cls: 96.61 chg: -1.44 stop: 97.49

It's not looking good for LMT. The stock's recent bounce has failed. Shares have produced a bearish reversal and failed rally under the 50-dma in the last couple of sessions. Odds are growing that LMT will breakdown under support near its rising 100-dma and the $95.00 level. Aggressive traders might want to consider buying puts on a drop below the 100-dma (95.65). We will strongly consider switching directions and buying puts if it looks like LMT will break the $95.00 level. Currently our plan was to buy calls on a breakout over $100 with a trigger at $100.25. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on March xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.8 million

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Nucor - NUE - cls: 66.54 chg: -0.51 stop: 63.89

The rally in NUE is struggling to keep the momentum alive. Trading over the past couple of sessions hasn't been very inspiring. Shares could bounce from the $66.00 level and readers could use it as a new entry point to buy calls. However, in the current market environment we hesitate to open new call plays. The market is starting to act like the next move will be down. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops toward $65. Our target is the $72.50-75.00 range. We would aim higher but we don't have much time. Traders will need to exit ahead of the April 19th earnings report. FYI: We do expect some resistance at $70. Don't be surprised to see NUE bounce around the $67.50-70.00 range for a couple of days.

Picked on April 09 at $ 67.55
Change since picked: - 1.01
Earnings Date 04/19/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.8 million
 

Put Updates

F5 Networks - FFIV - cls: 67.59 chg: -0.04 stop: 71.01

The move today might be a short-term top for FFIV but we would suggest looking for a decline under $67.00 or even $66.00 before considering new put positions at this time. The larger pattern looks bearish and poised to consolidate lower but the bounce a couple of days ago was fueled by strong volume. Our target is the $60.50-60.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report. FYI: FFIV can be volatile so expect a lot of up and downs in the option prices.

Picked on April 01 at $ 66.68
Change since picked: + 0.91
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million

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MDC Holdings - MDC - cls: 48.37 chg: -1.03 stop: 50.05

The homebuilders suffered another blow today. The National Association of Realtors announced their forecast for home prices to slip 0.7% annually in 2007. This is the first decline in about 40 years. Pouring salt on the wound was negative comments from one of the builders saying that they expect it to get worse before it gets better. Shares of MDC reacted with a 2% sell-off and a drop toward short-term support near $48.00. Aggressive traders might want to use this as a new entry point for shorts. We are going to stick to our plan with a suggested trigger to buy puts at $46.95. If triggered our target is the $41.00-40.00 range. Prepare for some support near $45.00. The P&F chart looks very bearish with a $35 target. We do not want to hold over the mid-April earnings report so our target might be a little optimistic. Then again, stocks tend to drop faster than they rise.

Picked on April xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 870 thousand
 

Strangle Updates

None
 

Dropped Calls

Holly Corp. - HOC - cls: 62.12 chg: -0.28 stop: 57.87

We are suggesting an early exit in HOC. The stock did hit a new all-time high today at $63.60. Unfortunately, shares gave back its intraday gains and closed in the red on above average volume. Today's move looks like a short-term top and bearish reversal. HOC had already hit our conservative target near $62 and we had been aiming for the $64.75-65.00 range. We are no longer going to risk it and suggest exiting now. We'll keep an eye on HOC for a pull back near $60 or even $58 as a potential entry point to consider new call positions.

Picked on March 14 at $ 57.87
Change since picked: + 4.25
Earnings Date 05/07/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 651 thousand
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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