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Call Updates

Advance Auto Parts - AAP - cls: 39.95 chg: -0.20 stop: 37.95

AAP suffered a little profit taking today but traders bought the early morning dip near $39.40. We remain bullish on the stock but traders can be patient and choose their entry point. Another dip near $39.00-39.50 or a new relative high over $40.25 both look like potential buying opportunities on AAP. Our target is the $44.50-45.00 range. We do not want to hold over the mid-May earnings report. FYI: The P&F chart points to a $48 target.

Picked on April 11 at $ 40.05
Change since picked: - 0.10
Earnings Date 05/17/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 854 thousand

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Apple Inc. - AAPL - cls: 92.19 chg: -0.40 stop: 89.49

Warning! AAPL could see additional volatility tomorrow. The stock's drop today was not a surprise. We've been warning readers to watch for a pull back toward support near $90.00. Investors bought the dip at $90.72 and as of the closing bell AAPL looked ready to bounce. Unfortunately, after the bell AAPL announced some potentially negative news. You can read the whole thing here:
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070412/sfth056.html?.v=87
The iPhone news is a plus but investors were unhappy to hear about a delay for the new Leopard operating system. Shares of AAPL were trading down after hours near $89.50. We could easily be stopped out tomorrow morning. If we don't get stopped out another dip near or bounce from the $90 region can be used as a new entry point. Just keep in mind our time frame and plan to exit ahead of earnings on April 25th.

Picked on March 19 at $ 91.01
Change since picked: + 1.18
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 35 million

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Allegheny Tech. - ATI - cls: 113.11 chg: +1.56 stop: 105.75

News that IPSCO (IPS +11.5%) was considering a sale of the company helped lift steel-sector stocks today. Shares of ATI only rose 1.3% but the rebound from its test of short-term support near $110 yesterday looks like a new entry point. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops (maybe into the $107-108.50 region). Our target is the $117.00-120.00 range. FYI: The P&F chart points to a $123 target. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on April 03 at $110.26
Change since picked: + 2.85
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.6 million

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Boston Properties - BXP - cls: 115.65 chg: -0.91 stop: 114.49

We don't see any changes from our previous comments on BXP. REITs continued to show relative weakness. The stock looks poised to trade toward its recent lows near $113.50. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. Our plan was to buy a breakout over $120 with a trigger at $120.75. We do not want to hold over the April 24th earnings report.

Picked on April xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 million

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Caterpillar - CAT - cls: 66.64 chg: +0.29 stop: 65.45

More aggressive traders might want to buy CAT's bounce from $65.86 this morning. We want to warn you that the short-term technicals look bearish. We are sticking to our plan for now. We're suggesting readers wait for a breakout higher with a trigger to buy calls at $68.55. Before you consider new positions keep in mind our time frame. We don't want to hold over the April 20th earnings. That is not a lot of time. If CAT doesn't rebound significantly tomorrow we'll drop the stock from the newsletter.

Picked on April xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/20/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.3 million

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Cigna - CI - close: 146.23 chg: -0.66 stop: 141.39

Healthcare stocks were generally higher on Thursday but CI under performed with a spike down at the open and not much of a rebound. We would probably wait for another rise past $147.50 before considering new call positions. Our target is the $154.50-155.00 range. We do expect some resistance near $150. We do not want to hold over the May 2nd earnings report.

Picked on April 05 at $147.75
Change since picked: - 1.52
Earnings Date 05/02/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 910 thousand

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Core Labs - CLB - cls: 88.79 chg: +1.24 stop: 81.95

A draw down in gasoline inventories and concerns over refining capacity helped push crude oil futures to a 3% gain today. The oil stocks rallied on the move. Shares of CLB posted a 1.4% gain. The P&F chart is bullish with a $115 target. Currently we have two targets. Our conservative target is $92.00. Our aggressive target is the $97.50-100.00 range, which might be a too optimistic given our time frame. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on April 08 at $ 87.25
Change since picked: + 1.54
Earnings Date 04/23/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 275 thousand

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ConocoPhillips - COP - cls: 70.49 chg: +1.26 stop: 66.19*new*

Concerns over refinery shut downs helped fuel the 3% rally in crude oil, which in turn powered a rally in oil stocks. COP surged 1.8% and finally closed over resistance at the $70.00 level. We are raising the stop loss to $66.19 just under the recent low. We're aiming for the $74.00-75.00 range in COP. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on March 20 at $ 66.31
Change since picked: + 4.18
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 12.1 million

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Nucor - NUE - cls: 66.70 chg: +0.16 stop: 63.89

We don't have a lot of time left with NUE. Shares have been bouncing around the $66-68 level all week and that doesn't help if you're holding call options. Given our time frame we're not suggesting new positions any longer. More conservative traders may want to githen their stops toward $65 or even toward $66. Our target is the $72.50-75.00 range. We would aim higher but we don't have much time. Traders will need to exit ahead of the April 19th earnings report. FYI: We do expect some resistance at $70.

Picked on April 09 at $ 67.55
Change since picked: - 0.85
Earnings Date 04/19/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.8 million
 

Put Updates

F5 Networks - FFIV - cls: 68.75 chg: +1.16 stop: 71.01

We strongly considered an early exit in FFIV today. Shares displayed a lot of relative strength with today's 1.7% gain. Volume came in below average but we noticed that the NWX networking index is moving higher and still has more room to rally before encountering any significant resistance. More conservative traders may just want to abandon this play immediately. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. If you choose to keep the play open you may want to tighten your stop toward $70. We're leaving ours at $71.01 for the moment.

Picked on April 01 at $ 66.68
Change since picked: + 2.07
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million

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MDC Holdings - MDC - cls: 49.87 chg: +1.50 stop: 50.05

The homebuilding sector rallied sharply on Thursday, which was probably exacerbated by short covering, after builder M/I Homes (MHO) offered some positive comments. MHO said that their new orders rose sharply, better than their last two quarters combined, and that their cancellation rate dropped significantly. This lifted the DJUSHB home construction index to a 2.5% gain. Shares of MDC soared to a 3.1% rally to close just under resistance at the $50.00 level. Fortunately, we're still on the sidelines waiting for a breakdown under $47.00. Our current plan is to buy puts if MDC hits $46.95. If MDC closes over $50.00 we'll drop it as a bearish candidate.

Picked on April xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 870 thousand
 

Strangle Updates

None
 

Dropped Calls

Infosys - INFY - cls: 53.53 chg: +1.56 stop: 49.79

Our time has run out. Shares of INFY soared 3% ahead of tomorrow's earnings report (actually out tonight). It was our plan to exit at today's closing bell to avoid holding over the announcement. Wall Street expects INFY to report a profit of 40 cents a share.

Picked on April 03 at $ 51.69
Change since picked: + 1.84
Earnings Date 04/13/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million

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Lockheed Martin - LMT - cls: 96.16 chg: -0.45 stop: 97.49

We are giving up on LMT as a potential bullish candidate - at least for now. There is still a chance that shares will bounce from rising, technical support at its 100-dma or round-number, psychological support at the $95.00 level. However, we think odds are growing that LMT will breakdown. After the bell tonight the U.S. Navy announced it was canceling a big ship-building contract with LMT. We didn't see any big after hours declines in LMT but we certainly don't see the news as a reason for investors to be buying the stock tomorrow. If LMT closes under its 100-dma or trades near the $95.00 level we might list it as a put play with a suggested trigger to buy puts under $95.00.

Picked on March xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.8 million
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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