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Call Updates

Advance Auto Parts - AAP - cls: 39.65 chg: -0.30 stop: 37.95

Friday was the second day in a row that traders bought the dip in AAP near $39.40. While that alone is encouraging it is discouraging to see the slow down in AAP's upward momentum. The markets were mostly bullish on Friday but AAP closed down 0.7%. The overall pattern for AAP is bullish but shares may be headed for a dip toward $39.00 or its 50-dma near 38.40. We would either watch for another bounce in the $39.00-39.50 range or wait for a new relative high before opening new positions. Our target is the $44.50-45.00 range. We do not want to hold over the mid-May earnings report. FYI: The P&F chart points to a $48 target.

Suggested Options:
If AAP provides another entry point we'd use the May calls. FYI: The CBOE.com website seems to be having trouble providing option data on AAP.

Picked on April 11 at $ 40.05
Change since picked: - 0.40
Earnings Date 05/17/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 854 thousand

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Apple Inc. - AAPL - cls: 90.24 chg: -1.95 stop: 87.45 *new*

It's time traders made another decision on AAPL. Do you keep your bullish positions or do you exit? We have been warning readers for days that shares looked poised to dip toward support near $90.00. News out on Thursday night that AAPL would delay their new Mac OS named Leopard because they're focusing more resources on the iPhone was the main reason behind AAPL's decline on Friday. Will shares bounce from support at $90.00? The fact that shares did not break this level on an intraday basis today is a positive. Last night shares traded toward $89.50 in after hours but never broke $90.00 during the regular trading session. We are suggesting that more conservative traders strongly consider an early exit. The short-term technicals have turned bearish and the weekly chart has produced a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern, which is typically seen as a bearish reversal. We are altering our risk on this play. We want to give AAPL a little bit more room so we're taking on more risk by adjusting the stop loss to $87.45. We suspect that shares could dip toward the rising 100-dma near $88.60 and we wanted to give AAPL some room to maneuver. This definitely raises our risk, especially with the short-term outlook turning bearish. We reiterate our suggestion that more conservative traders may want to exit early right now. Alternatively, a rebound back above the $92.00 level would look bullish and readers might want to consider new long positions on a bounce back above the $92 mark or its 10-dma. We do not want to hold over the April 25th earnings report. Our target is the $97.50-100.00 range.

Suggested Options:
We are not suggesting new plays at this time.

Picked on March 19 at $ 91.01
Change since picked: - 0.77
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 35 million

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Amgen - AMGN - cls: 59.03 change: +1.39 stop: 55.74

Shares of AMGN surged on Friday on what seemed like mixed news regarding one of its drugs. AMGN closed up 2.4% on above average volume. After hours a rival biotech firm filed a patent infringement lawsuit against AMGN but the stock did not seem to move on the news in after hours trading. We remain bullish on AMGN but given the pull back from its session highs on Friday we suspect that traders may get another entry point on a dip near $58.00. Our target is the $62.40-62.50 range, which is very close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the January-April decline. We do not want to hold over the earnings report so we plan to exit at the closing bell on April 23rd if AMGN hasn't hit our target by then.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the May calls. It is up to you, the individual trader, to decide which month and which strike price best suits your trading style and risk level for all of our suggested trading candidates.

BUY CALL MAY 55.00 YAA-EK open interest=24390 current ask $5.30
BUY CALL MAY 57.50 YAA-EY open interest=17362 current ask $3.50
BUY CALL MAY 60.00 YAA-EL open interest=34868 current ask $2.05

Picked on April 12 at $ 57.64
Change since picked: + 1.39
Earnings Date 04/23/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 16.6 million

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Allegheny Tech. - ATI - cls: 113.76 chg: +0.65 stop: 105.75

So far so good. ATI has spent the last week consolidating its bullish breakout over resistance at the $110 level. Now that it has rested shares look poised to move higher. Steel and metal stocks as a group continue to look bullish. Readers can choose to buy calls now or look for another dip near the $111-110 region. We would prefer to buy a dip. Watch for the simple 10-dma near $111 to offer another level of short-term support. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops toward the $108-110 area. Our target is the $117.00-120.00 range. FYI: The P&F chart points to a $123 target. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the May calls. We would prefer to buy a dip in the $111-110 range.

BUY CALL MAY $110 ATI-EX open interest=1148 current ask $7.80
BUY CALL MAY $115 ATI-EC open interest=3131 current ask $4.90

Picked on April 03 at $110.26
Change since picked: + 3.50
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.6 million

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Boeing - BA - close: 91.03 change: +0.18 stop: 89.35

We do not see any changes from our Thursday night new play description on BA so we are reposting it here:

We are going to try again with BA as a bullish call candidate. We had the stock on the newsletter several days ago but shares never broke out and never hit our trigger. We're trying again but we have a short time frame. We do not want to hold over the April 25th earnings report. Thus we plan to exit at the closing bell on April 24th unless BA hit our target first. We'll wait for a breakout over resistance at the $92.00 level. Our trigger to buy calls will be $92.35. If triggered our target is the $97.50-100.00 range. More aggressive traders might want to consider jumping the gun if BA can traded over short-term resistance near $91.00.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the May calls. Our suggested trigger to buy calls is at $92.35.

BUY CALL MAY 90.00 BA-ER open interest=10124 current ask $3.10
BUY CALL MAY 95.00 BA-ES open interest=10636 current ask $0.90

Picked on April xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.1 million

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Boston Properties - BXP - cls: 116.32 chg: +0.67 stop: 114.49

Aggressive traders might want to consider buying Friday's bounce in BXP. We would be careful. Technicals are mixed and it looks like support is closer to the $114-113.50 zone. Currently our plan is to buy calls on a breakout through the top of its trading range near $120. Our suggested trigger to open positions is at $120.75. One of the biggest challenges we face is the time frame since we do not want to hold over the April 24th earnings report. If BXP doesn't continue to bounce early next week we'll drop it as a bullish candidate. FYI: The rising channel on the weekly chart makes a bounce from current levels a tempting entry.

Suggested Options:
If BXP provides a new entry point with a breakout over $120 (our trigger is $120.75) we would suggest buying the May calls.

Picked on April xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 million

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Cigna - CI - close: 148.93 chg: +2.70 stop: 142.49 *new*

Friday proved to be a strong session for CI. The stock rallied sharply rising 1.8% and closing near its all-time highs. Driving the stock higher was a rising expectation for strong earnings in the managed healthcare industry. Friday's rebound looks like a new entry point for us. More conservative traders may want to wait for a breakout past potential resistance at the $150 level. We only have a couple of weeks before CI reports earnings and we want to exit ahead of the announcement. Speaking of earnings, rival UNH is due to report earnings on April 19th before the opening bell. UNH's results could produce some volatility in CI. Our target for CI is the $154.50-155.00 range. FYI: We are adjusting the stop loss to $142.49.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the May calls.

BUY CALL MAY 145 CI-EI open interest=323 current ask $7.30
BUY CALL MAY 150 CI-EJ open interest=362 current ask $4.20
BUY CALL MAY 155 CI-EK open interest=321 current ask $2.10

Picked on April 05 at $147.75
Change since picked: + 1.18
Earnings Date 05/02/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 910 thousand

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Seacor - CKH - cls: 99.27 chg: -0.88 stop: 96.49

Lack of follow through on Thursday's bullish breakout in CKH is a little disappointing. However, traders bought the dip near the rising 10-dma and 50-dma. Readers can choose to buy the dip now or wait for a new relative high over $100.22. We don't see any real changes from our Thursday night new play description so we're reposting it here:

The consolidation in CKH appears to be ending as shares breakout from its trading range and through round-number resistance at the $100 level. The longer-term trend is bullish with a steady pattern of higher lows. Plus, the P&F chart has a compelling pattern for bullish positions. Yet we want to caution traders that this is probably an aggressive entry point with clear overhead resistance in the $102.50-103.25 range. It would not surprise us to see CKH fail on its first try to breakout past $103. We are suggesting call positions with CKH above $100. Our target is the $107.00-110.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $115 target. We do not want to hold over the late April or early May earnings report.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the May calls. The low option volume might raise the difficulty level of this trade.

BUY CALL MAY 95.00 CKH-ES open interest= 2 current ask $6.80
BUY CALL MAY 100.0 CHK-ET open interest= 0 current ask $3.50

Picked on April 12 at $100.15
Change since picked: - 0.88
Earnings Date 04/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 227 thousand

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Core Labs - CLB - cls: 88.31 chg: -0.48 stop: 83.45*new*

Oil service stocks continued to inch higher on Friday. Unfortunately, CLB displayed some relative weakness. We shouldn't be too surprised. Shares of CLB have been stair-stepping higher for weeks and the stock is currently in a consolidation period before the next step higher. We hesitate to suggest new plays but readers can choose to open positions now or try and time an entry on a dip near the $87.00-86.00 range. Previously we had two targets. A conservative one at $92 and an aggressive one in the $97.50-100.00 range. Unfortunately, we only have six trading days left so we're eliminating the aggressive target and would exit at $92.00 near the December 2006 highs. We plan to exit ahead of the April 23rd earnings report. FYI: Please note our new stop loss at $83.45.

Suggested Options:
Given our time frame we're not suggesting new positions but a dip near $87.00-86.00 would look like a new entry point.

Picked on April 08 at $ 87.25
Change since picked: + 1.06
Earnings Date 04/23/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 275 thousand

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ConocoPhillips - COP - cls: 70.54 chg: +0.05 stop: 66.19

COP struggled to build on Thursday's bullish breakout over the $70.00 level. However, traders did buy the dip near $70 (actually 69.83) and COP still managed to close higher. We remain bullish on oil. If you're looking for a new entry point this could be it although you may want to use a tighter stop loss. We're aiming for the $74.00-75.00 range in COP. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Suggested Options:
If you are willing to buy the bullish breakout over $70 then we'd use the May calls.

Picked on March 20 at $ 66.31
Change since picked: + 4.23
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 12.1 million

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Joy Global - JOYG - cls: 46.19 chg: -0.29 stop: 43.89

A little bit of profit taking after Thursday's big gain in JOYG is not a surprise. Readers can choose to buy this dip or hope for another drip near the $45.50 or even the $45.00 area. If shares trade near $45.00 it might be better to wait for signs of a bounce first. Overall we don't see any changes from our Thursday night new play description so we're reposting it here:

Positive comments from a Lehman Brothers analyst helped JOYG produce a strong 3.6% rally Thursday. An AP article discussed his expectation that JOYG's business was doing well globally. The analyst has a $65 price target. The Point & Figure chart, which has a very tempting buy signal following a bounce from support, points to a $57 target. We see the rebound from $44-45 as a new entry point to buy calls. If you don't want to chase it here then look for a dip near $45 as another entry point. There is potential resistance near $47.00 at the bottom of its February gap down. However, we are suggesting two targets. Our conservative target is $49.85-50.00. Our aggressive target is the $52.25-55.00 range.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the May calls.

BUY CALL MAY 45.00 JQY-EI open interest=4735 current ask $2.95
BUY CALL MAY 50.00 JQY-EJ open interest=1949 current ask $0.90

Picked on April 12 at $ 46.48
Change since picked: - 0.29
Earnings Date 05/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.5 million

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Nucor - NUE - cls: 66.79 chg: +0.09 stop: 65.74 *new*

Monday saw NUE breakout to a new high but there has been no follow through on the move. Shares spent the week consolidating sideways. Many of the steel stocks have been showing relative strength so we're a little surprised that NUE is struggling. Lack of momentum higher this past week has put a bearish curve into the short-term technicals. We don't have much time left. NUE is due to report earnings before the opening bell on April 19th. That means we need to exit on Wednesday, April 18th at the close. With only three trading days left we're not suggesting new positions. Please note that we're adjusting our stop loss to $65.74. Our target is the $72.50-75.00 range.

Suggested Options:
We are not suggesting new plays in NUE at this time.

Picked on April 09 at $ 67.55
Change since picked: - 0.76
Earnings Date 04/19/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.8 million
 

Put Updates

F5 Networks - FFIV - cls: 66.86 chg: -1.89 stop: 70.55 *new*

We are honestly surprised that the positive comments from CSCO, that lifted the markets late on Friday, did not rub off on rival FFIV. Shares of FFIV were weak from the start and closed down 2.7% on improving volume. The move looks like it cancels out Thursday's big rally. We hesitate to suggest new bearish put positions at this time but given FFIV's relative weakness on Friday we're not willing to just drop it. Please note that we're adjusting the stop loss to $70.55. Our target is still the $60.50-60.00 range but more conservative traders may want to exit near the 200-dma around $62.50. Don't forget that we want to exit ahead of earnings.

Suggested Options:
We are not suggesting new plays in FFIV at this time.

Picked on April 01 at $ 66.68
Change since picked: + 0.18
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million

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MDC Holdings - MDC - cls: 49.25 chg: -0.62 stop: 50.05

The homebuilders have seen something of a rocky week. It seems like every other day brings another story that reverses the previous day's move. This has left shares of MDC in a $48.00-50.00 trading range. Nimble traders might want to consider buying calls on a breakout over $50.00 or its 200-dma near $50.45. We are waiting for a breakdown under $48.00. Our suggested trigger to buy puts is actually at $46.95, which is under the March low. If triggered at $46.95, our target is the $41.00-40.00 range. If MDC closes over $50.00 we'll drop it as a bearish candidate. Please note that we do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Suggested Options:
If triggered at $46.95 we would suggest the May puts.

Picked on April xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 870 thousand
 

Strangle Updates

None
 

Dropped Calls

Caterpillar - CAT - cls: 66.79 chg: +0.15 stop: 65.45

Time is almost up as CAT's earnings report nears on April 20th. The stock is trying to bounce from the $66 level but we just don't have enough time to wait and watch. We were suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $68.55 but CAT has failed to hit our trigger so far. We're dropping the stock as a bullish candidate for now.

Picked on April xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/20/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.3 million
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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