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Call Updates

Advance Auto Parts - AAP - cls: 41.19 chg: +0.39 stop: 38.59

AAP's rally continued on Monday in spite of the market's pause. The stock is hitting new nine-month highs. The weekly chart shows potential resistance near $42.50 and then significant resistance near $45.00. Our target is the $44.50-45.00 range. We do not want to hold over the mid-May earnings report. FYI: The P&F chart points to a $48 target.

Picked on April 11 at $ 40.05
Change since picked: + 1.14
Earnings Date 05/17/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 854 thousand

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Apple Inc. - AAPL - cls: 93.51 chg: +2.54 stop: 89.45

Shares of AAPL displayed plenty of relative strength on Monday. Shares soared 2.79% and on improving volume. It could be some pre-earnings excitement but odds are good today's rally was influenced by news that CEO Steve Jobs will probably not face criminal charges on the backdating options issue. We are planning to exit at the closing bell on Wednesday to avoid holding over the earnings announcement. Our target is the $96.50-97.00.

Picked on March 19 at $ 91.01
Change since picked: + 2.50
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 35 million

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Abercrombie - ANF - cls: 82.88 chg: -0.63 stop: 79.85

Retail stocks struggled a bit on Monday. Investors could start to worry that rising oil prices will hit consumers harder at the pump and negatively impact retail sales. ANF slipped 0.75%. We would look for a dip or a bounce near $82.00, the 10-dma (near 81.00) as a new entry point to buy calls; even a dip near $80, which should be support, will work as an entry point. If ANF can trade over $84.00 it should reverse the Point & Figure chart into a new buy signal. Our target is the $89.00-90.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late May earnings.

Picked on April 22 at $ 83.51
Change since picked: - 0.63
Earnings Date 05/23/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.9 million

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Boeing - BA - close: 93.64 change: +0.35 stop: 89.85

Time is almost up for our bullish play on BA. The company is due to report earnings on April 25th before the market's open. That doesn't give us a lot of time so we're not suggesting new positions. We will plan to exit at the closing bell on Tuesday to avoid holding over earnings. Our target is the $97.50-100.00 range.

Picked on April 18 at $ 92.35
Change since picked: + 1.29
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.1 million

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Cigna - CI - close: 152.64 chg: +0.37 stop: 144.95

CI is still inching higher. Shares are getting closer to our target in the $154.50-155.00 range so we're not suggesting new positions. If you plan to aim higher you might want to use Friday's rebound as a new entry point - just consider using a tighter stop loss. We do not want to hold over CI's earnings report in early May.

Picked on April 05 at $147.75
Change since picked: + 4.89
Earnings Date 05/02/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 910 thousand

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ConocoPhillips - COP - cls: 70.60 chg: -0.65 stop: 68.75

Crude oil futures rose over 2% and are flirting with the $66/barrel region. This strength fueled a bounce in oil stocks but some of the leaders struggled to build on their gains. COP was actually downgraded to a "hold" this morning. More conservative traders may want to consider locking in some gains soon (or now). We plan to exit on Tuesday at the closing bell to avoid holding over COP's earnings report on Wednesday morning.

Picked on March 20 at $ 66.31
Change since picked: + 4.29
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 12.1 million

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FedEx - FDX - cls: 107.94 change: -1.09 stop: 106.85

The sharp rise in oil today could put the brakes on any FDX rebound. The stock produced a failed rally under $110 this morning and today's candlestick looks like another bearish reversal. You can see that FDX has resistance at its 200-dma near $110.25-110.50. We are suggesting calls if FDX can breakout over resistance. Our suggested trigger to buy calls is at $110.55. This might be considered an aggressive entry point given potential resistance at the 50-dma and 100-dma still overhead near $112. If we are triggered at $110.55 our target is the $116.00-117.50 range. More conservative traders may want to exit early near $115. FYI: The P&F chart is still bearish from the March sell-off. Traders should be aware that rival UPS reports earnings on April 25th before the market's open. UPS' earnings announcement could have a big impact on FDX for better or for worse.

Picked on April xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 06/20/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.8 million

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HESS Corp. - HES - cls: 57.31 chg: -0.25 stop: 55.45

Concerns about crude oil supplies following troubled elections in oil exporter Nigeria sent crude futures soaring. Yet shares of HES could not build on the commodities gain. We're almost out of time. Earnings are due out on Wednesday morning so we plan to exit on Tuesday at the closing bell.

Picked on April 15 at $ 57.87
Change since picked: - 0.56
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.0 million

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Holly Corp. - HOC - cls: 62.84 chg: +0.54 stop: 59.49

HOC continued to show relative strength and shares rose 0.8% on Monday. We don't see any changes from our weekend comments. We are suggesting call positions now or on a dip near $60.00. Our target is the $67.50-70.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $74 target. We do not want to hold over the May 8th earnings report.

Picked on April 22 at $ 62.30
Change since picked: + 0.54
Earnings Date 05/08/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 669 thousand

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Jones Lang Lasalle - JLL - cls: 110.48 chg: +0.52 stop: 106.75

Bullish breakout or bull trap? JLL broke out over resistance at the $110 level, which is very positive. Unfortunately, the rally reversed course sharply under $112 and the move looks like a short-term reversal or top. Our suggested trigger to buy calls was at $110.51. The play is now open and our target is the $114.75-115.00 range. Readers can choose to look for a dip towards $110 as a new entry point or wait for a bounce. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. The P&F chart looks bullish with a triple-top breakout buy signal and a $135 target.

Picked on April 23 at $110.51
Change since picked: - 0.03
Earnings Date 05/01/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 300 thousand

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Joy Global - JOYG - cls: 49.88 chg: +2.07 stop: 44.75

Target achieved. Positive analyst comments in Barron's over the weekend helped JOYG produce a 4.3% gain today. Our conservative target was the $49.85-50.00 range. The stock now looks short-term overbought and is testing resistance near $50. We are not suggesting new positions. Our aggressive target is the $52.25-55.00 range.

Picked on April 12 at $ 46.48
Change since picked: + 3.40
Earnings Date 05/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.5 million

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McKesson Corp. - MCK - cls: 60.48 chg: +0.26 stop: 57.99

MCK is still creeping higher. We remain bullish on the stock with shares above $60.00. Readers can choose to buy calls now or look for a dip (or bounce) near $59.00 as a new entry point. Our target is the $64.00-65.00 range. FYI: The Point & Figure chart points to a $73 target.

Picked on April 19 at $ 60.15
Change since picked: + 0.33
Earnings Date 05/07/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million

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Nucor - NUE - cls: 68.54 change: +0.85 stop: 63.99

Bullish breakout! NUE pushed past resistance near $68 and hit our suggested trigger to buy calls at $68.51. Our only complaint was the lack of volume behind today's move, which should make us cautious. Now that the play is open our target is the $74.00-75.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with an $83 target. FYI: We would expect a little bit of resistance near $70.

Picked on April 23 at $ 68.51
Change since picked: + 0.03
Earnings Date 04/19/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.6 million

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Wynn Resorts - WYNN - cls: 103.44 chg: +0.93 stop: 97.49

WYNN continued to rally with traders buying the dip near its rising 10-dma today. The stock closed up 0.9% and looks poised to breakout over $104. We plan to exit ahead of the early May earnings report. Our target is the $108.00-110.00 range. More conservative traders may want to exit early near the late February highs around $106.60. FYI: WYNN's P&F chart points to a $120 target.

Picked on April 15 at $102.44
Change since picked: + 1.00
Earnings Date 05/05/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.4 million
 

Put Updates

Intl.Bus.Mach. - IBM - cls: 95.21 chg: +0.63 stop: 96.06

Surprise! We finally add a new put play on the newsletter and the stock is upgraded before the opening bell. Fortunately, our plan is using a suggested entry point at $93.89. More aggressive traders may want to watch for a failed rally from here as a new entry. The overall pattern continues to look bearish. If triggered at $93.89 our short-term target is the $90.10-90.00 range. An alternative target would be the slowly rising 200-dma currently near $89.37. The P&F chart looks very bearish with a $77 target.

Picked on April xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.8 million
 

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

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Chicago Merc.Exc. - CME - cls: 547.40 chg: -8.49 stop: n/a

Today was our only chance to open strangle positions on CME ahead of its earnings report tomorrow morning. The stock gave us a couple of great entry point near $550 during the session. We need to see a big reaction in the stock price to make this aggressive, strangle play work. Wall Street is looking for CME to report earnings of $3.59 a share. The suggested options we had listed were the May $580 call (CNM-EV) and the May $530 put (CNM-QF). Our estimated cost was $13.00. We want to see if either option rises to $18.50 or more.

Picked on April 22 at $555.89
Change since picked: - 8.49
Earnings Date 04/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 693 thousand

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Lockheed Martin - LMT - cls: 95.40 change: -0.23 stop: n/a

LMT produced a nice pop on Monday just ahead of the company's earnings report due out tomorrow morning. Today was our only day to open strangle positions. The market is looking for LMT to announce a profit of $1.37 a share. The suggested options we had listed were the May $100 calls (LMT-ET) and the May $90 puts (LMT-QR). Our estimated cost was $1.50. We want to sell if either option rises to $2.25 or more.

Picked on April 22 at $ 95.40
Change since picked: + 1.67
Earnings Date 04/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million
 

Dropped Calls

Core Labs - CLB - cls: 86.71 chg: +1.21 stop: 83.99

Another rally in crude oil helped CLB post a 1.4% gain ahead of its earnings report tonight. It was our plan to exit at the close to avoid holding over the report. CLB reported 7 cents better than expectations and the stock is trading slightly higher in the $87-88 range after hours.

Picked on April 08 at $ 87.25
Change since picked: - 0.54
Earnings Date 04/23/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 275 thousand

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Chicago Merc.Exc. - CME - cls: 547.40 chg: -8.49 stop: 544.75

It's time to cut this aggressive, high-risk call play in CME loose. The stock failed to see any follow through on its bullish breakout April 16th. Today's move actually looks pretty bearish with the breakdown under $550 and its 50-dma and 100-dma. It was our plan to exit ahead of the earnings report expected tomorrow.

Picked on April 16 at $557.50
Change since picked: -10.10
Earnings Date 04/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 733 thousand
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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