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Call Updates

Advance Auto Parts - AAP - cls: 41.06 chg: -0.13 stop: 38.59

We don't see anything significant in AAP's trading today. Bulls stepped in to buy the dip near $40.60 this morning. The weekly chart shows potential resistance near $42.50 and then significant resistance near $45.00. Our target is the $44.50-45.00 range. We do not want to hold over the mid-May earnings report. FYI: The P&F chart points to a $48 target.

Picked on April 11 at $ 40.05
Change since picked: + 1.01
Earnings Date 05/17/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 854 thousand

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Apple Inc. - AAPL - cls: 93.24 chg: -0.27 stop: 91.01 *new*

Shares of AAPL displayed some volatility on Tuesday. The erratic trading was due to news that the SEC was bringing civil charges against two former AAPL execs but they aren't going after the company or Steve Jobs - at least that's how it stands now. The high today was near $94.60 but there was a bad tick during the intraday choppiness that put the intraday high at $96.39. We want to remind readers that we're exiting tomorrow at the closing bell to avoid earnings. We are raising our stop loss to $91.01.

Picked on March 19 at $ 91.01
Change since picked: + 2.23
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 35 million

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Abercrombie - ANF - cls: 82.53 chg: -0.35 stop: 79.85

Retail stocks were still reacting to Target's news yesterday that April same-store sales would be less than expected. ANF witnessed some profit taking this morning but traders bought the dip at its rising 10-dma. We told readers yesterday to look for a dip or a bounce near the 10-dma as a new entry point. If ANF can trade over $84.00 it should reverse the Point & Figure chart into a new buy signal. Our target is the $89.00-90.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late May earnings.

Picked on April 22 at $ 83.51
Change since picked: - 0.98
Earnings Date 05/23/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.9 million

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Cigna - CI - close: 152.76 chg: +0.12 stop: 147.75*new*

CI posted another minor gain and continues to produce a bullish pattern of higher lows. Shares are getting closer to our target in the $154.50-155.00 range so we're not suggesting new positions. We do not want to hold over CI's earnings report in early May. FYI: More conservative traders may want to lock in a profit right now! Please note that we're adjusting the stop loss to $147.75.

Picked on April 05 at $147.75
Change since picked: + 4.77
Earnings Date 05/02/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 910 thousand

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FedEx - FDX - cls: 107.15 change: -0.79 stop: 106.85

Transport stocks did not find any strength in crude oil's pull back today. Shares of FDX lost 0.7% and broke the short-term bullish trend of higher lows. If FDX doesn't bounce soon we'll probably drop it as a candidate. Rival UPS might provide a catalyst with UPS' earnings report expected tomorrow. You can see that FDX has resistance at its 200-dma near $110.25-110.50. We are suggesting calls if FDX can breakout over resistance. Our suggested trigger to buy calls is at $110.55. This might be considered an aggressive entry point given potential resistance at the 50-dma and 100-dma still overhead near $111.75. If we are triggered at $110.55 our target is the $116.00-117.50 range. More conservative traders may want to exit early near $115. FYI: The P&F chart is still bearish from the March sell-off.

Picked on April xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 06/20/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.8 million

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Holly Corp. - HOC - cls: 62.28 chg: -0.56 stop: 59.49

A 2.4% drop in crude today almost erased yesterday's 2.6% rally and the pull back definitely weighed on the energy stocks. HOC slipped 0.9% but managed to hold the $62 level. We don't see any changes from our weekend comments. We are suggesting call positions now or on a dip near $60.00. Our target is the $67.50-70.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $74 target. We do not want to hold over the May 8th earnings report.

Picked on April 22 at $ 62.30
Change since picked: - 0.02
Earnings Date 05/08/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 669 thousand

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Joy Global - JOYG - cls: 49.88 chg: +2.07 stop: 44.75

We do not see any changes from yesterday. JOYG churned sideways hugging the $50.00 level for most of Tuesday's session. The stock hit our conservative target in the $49.85-50.00 range yesterday. We are not suggesting new positions. Our aggressive target is the $52.25-55.00 range.

Picked on April 12 at $ 46.48
Change since picked: + 3.40
Earnings Date 05/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.5 million

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McKesson Corp. - MCK - cls: 60.77 chg: +0.29 stop: 57.99

MCK displayed some relative strength with a 0.4% gain on improving volume. Traders bought the dip at its rising 10-dma and the stock rallied to a new multi-year high. Today's move looks like another entry point. Our target is the $64.00-65.00 range. FYI: The Point & Figure chart points to a $73 target.

Picked on April 19 at $ 60.15
Change since picked: + 0.62
Earnings Date 05/07/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million

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Nucor - NUE - cls: 66.71 change: -1.83 stop: 63.99

Uh-oh! A bearish forecast from U.S.Steel (X) prompted some heavy profit taking in the steel stocks this morning. NUE reversed yesterday's bullish breakout. The stock plunged back under resistance/support and closed with a 2.6% loss. Aggressive traders might want to consider buying a bounce from here. Conservative traders will want to think about an early exit to cut their losses or wait for a new move over $68.50 before considering new plays. The P&F chart is bullish with an $83 target. FYI: We would expect a little bit of resistance near $70.

Picked on April 23 at $ 68.51
Change since picked: - 1.80
Earnings Date 04/19/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.6 million

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Wynn Resorts - WYNN - cls: 102.81 chg: -0.63 stop: 97.49

We do not see any changes from our previous comments on WYNN. Shares continue to have a bullish pattern of higher lows but momentum is beginning to wane a bit under resistance near $104. We plan to exit ahead of the early May earnings report. Our target is the $108.00-110.00 range. More conservative traders may want to exit early near the late February highs around $106.60. FYI: WYNN's P&F chart points to a $120 target.

Picked on April 15 at $102.44
Change since picked: + 0.37
Earnings Date 05/05/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.4 million
 

Put Updates

Lockheed Martin - LMT - cls: 94.82 chg: -2.25 stop: 98.35

Company Description:
Headquartered in Bethesda, Md., Lockheed Martin employs approximately 140,000 people worldwide and is principally engaged in the research, design, development, manufacture, integration and sustainment of advanced technology systems, products and services. The corporation reported 2006 sales of $39.6 billion. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
We are doubling-up on LMT. The stock is currently in the newsletter as a strangle play. Now we're adding it as a put play. The company reported earnings this morning and while they beat estimates the revenues were light and guidance, while better, was not enough to stave off any profit taking. Shares produced a very clear cut bearish reversal today. Volume was very big. We are suggesting puts right now with shares under $95.00. Our short-term target is the $90.50-90.00 range where we expect LMT to find support near $90 and its rising 200-dma. We have a wide stop due to LMT's volatility today. More conservative traders may want to put their stop near $96.65-96.50.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the May or June puts.

BUY PUT MAY $95.00 LMT-QS open interest=1325 current ask $1.85
BUY PUT MAY $90.00 LMT-QR open interest= 469 current ask $0.45

BUY PUT JUN $95.00 LMT-RS open interest=4621 current ask $2.65
BUY PUT JUN $90.00 LMT-RR open interest=3408 current ask $0.95

Picked on April 24 at $ 94.82
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million
 

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

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Chicago Merc.Exc. - CME - cls: 531.30 chg: -16.10 stop: n/a

CME reported earnings today and investor's were not happy with the results. The stock continued to plunge and shares closed with a 2.9% loss on above average volume. The next level of support looks like $525 and then the 200-dma near $515. We are not currently suggesting new strangle positions. The suggested options we had listed were the May $580 call (CNM-EV) and the May $530 put (CNM-QF). Our estimated cost was $13.00. We want to see if either option rises to $18.50 or more. Currently the CNM-QF puts are trading around $$11.50.

Picked on April 22 at $555.89
Change since picked: -24.59
Earnings Date 04/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 693 thousand

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Lockheed Martin - LMT - cls: 94.82 change: -2.25 stop: n/a

The markets were not happy with LMT's earnings either. The company beat estimates by two cents but revenues were light. LMT did offer a brighter picture for the rest of 2007 but it wasn't bright enough to stop any profit taking. Shares have produced a very bearish engulfing candlestick (reversal) pattern. We're not suggesting new strangle plays at this time. The suggested options we had listed were the May $100 calls (LMT-ET) and the May $90 puts (LMT-QR). Our estimated cost was $1.50. We want to sell if either option rises to $2.25 or more. The LMT-QR puts are trading near $0.45 a piece.

Picked on April 22 at $ 95.40
Change since picked: - 0.58
Earnings Date 04/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million
 

Dropped Calls

Boeing - BA - close: 93.67 change: +0.03 stop: 89.85

Our time is up for the call play on BA. It was our plan to exit today at the closing bell to avoid tomorrow's earnings report. Wall Street expects BA to report a profit of $1.01 a share. In the news today BA announced more deals from the U.S. Navy and another large order from Virgin Atlantic for the new 787s.

Picked on April 18 at $ 92.35
Change since picked: + 1.32
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.1 million

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ConocoPhillips - COP - cls: 69.64 chg: -0.96 stop: 68.75

We have run out of time with the call play on COP. Unfortunately, a 2.4% decline in crude oil drug on the energy stocks today. Shares of COP lost 1.35% on Tuesday. COP reports earnings tomorrow morning and analysts are looking for a profit of $1.90 a share.

Picked on March 20 at $ 66.31
Change since picked: + 3.33
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 12.1 million

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HESS Corp. - HES - cls: 57.12 chg: -0.19 stop: 55.45

Time has also run out on our HES call play. The company is due to report earnings tomorrow and Wall Street expects a profit of $1.17 a share. It was our plan to exit tonight.

Picked on April 15 at $ 57.87
Change since picked: - 0.75
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.0 million

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Jones Lang Lasalle - JLL - cls: 107.03 chg: -3.45 stop: 106.75

Ouch! We have been stopped out of JLL. We warned readers yesterday that Monday's move could have been a bull trap. Yet there was no way to predict that an analyst downgrade for JLL this morning would produce a spike lower to $104.54. Traders did buy the dip near its 50-dma but we would have been stopped out at $106.75.

Picked on April 23 at $110.51
Change since picked: - 3.48
Earnings Date 05/01/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 300 thousand
 

Dropped Puts

Intl.Bus.Mach. - IBM - cls: 98.49 chg: +3.28 stop: 96.06

IBM does not want to cooperate with our bearish designs on the stock. The stock really was looking bearish but that changed after management announced another $15 billion stock buy back and raised their cash dividend. IBM's rally today accounted for most of the DJIA's gains. We had been waiting for a drop under $94.00 (trigger 93.89) to open positions. At this time we're dropping IBM as a bearish candidate unopened.

Picked on April xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.8 million
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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