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Call Updates

Advance Auto Parts - AAP - cls: 41.77 chg: -0.49 stop: 39.90

AAP suffered some profit taking after yesterday's upgrade-induced gap higher. The stock looks like it wants to "fill the gap" from Wednesday morning. Watch for a bounce near the $41.00 region although we hesitate to suggest new positions here. Our target is the $44.50-45.00 range. We do not want to hold over the mid-May earnings report. FYI: The P&F chart points to a $48 target.

Picked on April 11 at $ 40.05
Change since picked: + 1.72
Earnings Date 05/17/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 854 thousand

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Abercrombie - ANF - cls: 84.36 chg: +1.46 stop: 79.85

Positive analyst comments on ANF today helped lift the stock to a new all-time high near $85.00. Volume picked up but remains under the daily average. The trend is still bullish and we'd use the rally as a new entry point. The rally past $84.00 has produced a brand new Point & Figure chart buy signal with a forecasted $109 price target. The $85 level might be short-term round-number resistance so nimble traders may want to wait and watch for a dip in the $82.00-82.50 region. Our target is the $89.00-90.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late May earnings.

Picked on April 22 at $ 83.51
Change since picked: + 0.85
Earnings Date 05/23/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.9 million

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FedEx - FDX - cls: 108.27 change: +0.15 stop: 106.85

Transport stocks suffered some profit taking on Thursday but FDX eked out a very minor gain. We are still waiting for a bullish breakout over resistance near $110. Our suggested trigger to buy calls is at $110.55. Our target is the $116.00-117.50 range. More conservative traders may want to exit early near $115. FYI: The P&F chart is still bearish from the March sell-off.

Picked on April xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 06/20/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.8 million

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Holly Corp. - HOC - cls: 64.30 chg: +0.00 stop: 59.49

A positive earnings report from oil-giant XOM this morning was not enough to lift the energy sector. Shares of HOC churned sideways and closed unchanged. Rising volume on a day like today is a concern since it suggests distribution. The trend remains bullish. Our target is the $67.50-70.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $74 target. We do not want to hold over the May 8th earnings report.

Picked on April 22 at $ 62.30
Change since picked: + 2.00
Earnings Date 05/08/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 669 thousand

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Wynn Resorts - WYNN - cls: 105.93 chg: +0.46 stop: 99.95

We do not see any changes from our previous comments on WYNN. The stock continues to look bullish but readers might watch for a dip back toward $105 or $104 before seeing the next leg higher. We plan to exit ahead of the early May earnings report. Our target is the $108.00-110.00 range. More conservative traders may want to exit early near the late February highs around $106.60. The high today was $106.40. FYI: WYNN's P&F chart points to a $120 target.

Picked on April 15 at $102.44
Change since picked: + 3.49
Earnings Date 05/05/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.4 million
 

Put Updates

Lockheed Martin - LMT - cls: 93.50 chg: -2.00 stop: 97.51 *new*

As expected LMT continued to under perform and the stock lost just over 2% today. Volume was very big on today's decline, which is definitely bearish. We are adjusting the stop loss to $97.51. More conservative traders may want to place their stop closer to $96.51. Our short-term target is the $90.50-90.00 range where we expect LMT to find support near $90 and its rising 200-dma.

Picked on April 24 at $ 94.82
Change since picked: - 1.32
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million
 

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

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Lockheed Martin - LMT - cls: 93.50 change: -2.00 stop: n/a

LMT appears to be confirming the bearish reversal on Tuesday. We're not suggesting new strangle plays at this time. The suggested options we had listed were the May $100 calls (LMT-ET) and the May $90 puts (LMT-QR). Our estimated cost was $1.50. We want to sell if either option rises to $2.25 or more.

Picked on April 22 at $ 95.40
Change since picked: - 1.90
Earnings Date 04/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million
 

Dropped Calls

Cigna - CI - close: 153.79 chg: +0.37 stop: 147.75

Target achieved. It was an interesting open for CI this morning. The stock was downgraded yet shares spiked to $155.00 first thing this morning. Our target was the $154.50-155.00 range. We remain bullish on CI but we'd watch for a pull back near $150 before considering new positions.

Picked on April 05 at $147.75
Change since picked: + 6.04
Earnings Date 05/02/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 910 thousand

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Joy Global - JOYG - cls: 52.16 chg: +0.88 stop: 46.48

Target achieved. JOYG continued to rally on Thursday and shares hit an intraday high of $52.48. Our aggressive target was the $52.25-55.00 range. Shares hit our conservative target earlier this week. The stock is beginning to look very overbought so if you did not exit at our suggested target you will want to consider a much tighter stop loss.

Picked on April 12 at $ 46.48
Change since picked: + 5.68
Earnings Date 05/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.5 million

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McKesson Corp. - MCK - cls: 60.63 chg: -0.14 stop: 57.99

We have been stopped out of MCK at $57.99. A negative earnings report from CAH appears to be responsible for the $3.00 plunge in shares of MCK midday. MCK fell to short-term support near $58.00 and then just peeked under it to hit our stop loss before bouncing.

Picked on April 19 at $ 60.15
Change since picked: + 0.48
Earnings Date 05/07/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million

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Nucor - NUE - cls: 66.18 change: -0.68 stop: 63.99

We are suggesting an early exit in NUE. The stock has continued to show relative weakness and the technical indicators are all beginning to turn bearish. There is a chance for support near $64.00 but we'd rather cut our losses now.

Picked on April 23 at $ 68.51
Change since picked: - 2.33
Earnings Date 04/19/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.6 million
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

Chicago Merc.Exc. - CME - cls: 518.75 chg: -11.95 stop: n/a

Target achieved. The sell-off in CME continued. Shares slipped 2.25% on above average volume. The selling stalled near technical support at its 200-dma but CME closed near its lows, which is bearish for tomorrow. The put side of our strangle was the May $530 puts (CNM-QF), which are trading with an $18.50 bid and $19.20 ask. We suggested exiting if the option rose to $18.50 or more. More aggressive traders may want to aim for more. We would be extra careful about being greedy with CME near its 200-dma and probably due for some sort of bounce. Our estimated cost was $13.00.

Picked on April 22 at $555.89
Change since picked: -37.14
Earnings Date 04/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 693 thousand
 

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