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Call Updates

Advance Auto Parts - AAP - cls: 40.94 chg: -0.47 stop: 39.90

AAP just posted its fourth decline in a row following last week's spike higher. Volume was above average on today's loss and breakdown under the 10-dma. We're growing more concerned over the lack of upward momentum. More conservative traders may want to exit early. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $43.90-45.00 range. We do not want to hold over the mid-May earnings report. FYI: The P&F chart points to a $48 target.

Picked on April 11 at $ 40.05
Change since picked: + 0.89
Earnings Date 05/17/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 854 thousand

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Armor Holdings - AH - cls: 70.69 chg: -0.81 stop: 68.99

It was something of a volatile session for AH. The stock plunged lower at the open but traders bought the dip near $70.00. The afternoon bounce looks like a new entry point to buy calls although more conservative traders may want to wait to see some follow through higher first. We have two targets. Our first target is the $74.75-75.00 range. Our aggressive target will be $77.50-80.00. The P&F chart is bullish and points to a $73 target.

Picked on April 30 at $ 71.51
Change since picked: - 0.82
Earnings Date 04/19/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 482 thousand

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Ctrip.com - CTRP - cls: 69.98 chg: -0.94 stop: 67.45

We need to urge caution on CTRP. The stock under performed the broader market today with a 1.3% decline. Volume was light so it's tough to put much weight behind today's move. Traders did buy the initial dip at near $69.50 this morning. A rebound from here could be used as a new entry point. Our short-term target is the stock's highs in the $74.50-75.00 range. The Point & Figure chart forecasts a $93 target. We do not want to hold over the May 16th earnings report.

Picked on April 29 at $ 70.63
Change since picked: - 0.65
Earnings Date 05/16/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 389 thousand

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General Dynamics - GD - cls: 78.49 chg: -0.01 stop: 76.45

GD's intraday dip today completely filled the gap from last month. The rebound looks like a new entry point. If you're feeling conservative consider buying calls here with a stop loss under today's low. An alternative entry would be to wait for a breakout over $81.00. Our target is the 84.75-85.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. The P&F chart has produced a triple-top breakout buy signal with a $96 target.

Picked on April 29 at $ 80.27
Change since picked: - 1.78
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.4 million

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Holly Corp. - HOC - cls: 63.14 chg: -0.46 stop: 59.49

A decline in crude oil undercut any strength in the energy stocks today. Yet the afternoon rebound in HOC looks like a potential entry point, especially after traders bought the dip near $62.50 midday. If you're feeling cautious consider tightening your stop loss. Watch out for some volatility tomorrow morning as investors react to the weekly oil inventory numbers. Our target is the $67.50-70.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $74 target. We do not want to hold over the May 8th earnings report.

Picked on April 22 at $ 62.30
Change since picked: + 0.84
Earnings Date 05/08/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 669 thousand

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Wynn Resorts - WYNN - cls: 101.37 chg: -0.83 stop: 99.95

Traders bought the dip in WYNN at $100.70 this morning and the afternoon rebound looks like another bullish entry point. Unfortunately, we're almost out of time. WYNN is due to report earnings on or near May 7th. We plan to exit ahead of the early May earnings report. Our target is the $108.00-110.00 range. FYI: WYNN's P&F chart points to a $120 target. Readers should also note that the gaming sector will have lots of news this week with ASCA reporting earnings on Tuesday, LVS reporting on Wednesday, and MGM reporting on Thursday.

Picked on April 15 at $102.44
Change since picked: - 1.07
Earnings Date 05/07/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.4 million
 

Put Updates

AvalonBay - AVB - cls: 120.23 chg: -2.03 stop: 130.05

AVB continued to sell-off on Tuesday with another 1.66% decline on big volume. The high volume on the decline is usually a bearish sign. The selling stalled near $120 as expected. More conservative traders may want to think about taking a profit here. Our target is the $112.50-110.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $110 target.

Picked on April 30 at $124.45
Change since picked: - 4.22
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 770 thousand

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British Airways - BAB - cls: 101.08 chg: -0.10 stop: 104.26

The slow drift lower in BAB continued on Tuesday. The stock looks poised to test and breakdown under the $100 level. We don't see any changes from our weekend comments. More conservative traders may want to wait for a decline under $100. We'll use a $96.00-95.00 target range. More aggressive traders may want to aim for the rising 200-dma near $92. We do not want to hold over the mid-May earnings report.

Picked on April 29 at $101.42
Change since picked: - 0.34
Earnings Date 05/18/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 65 thousand

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Ceradyne - CRDN - cls: 59.87 chg: +1.02 stop: 62.51

The rebound in CRDN on Tuesday was fueled by positive analyst' comments and a new higher price target ($70). It may be noteworthy that the rally stalled at its 10-dma, which is now short-term overhead resistance. A decline (failed rally) from here could be used as a new entry point for puts. More conservative traders may want to use a tighter stop loss. Our short-term target is the $55.25-55.00 range. Watch out for potential support at the rising 50 or 100-dma.

Picked on April 29 at $ 59.08
Change since picked: + 0.79
Earnings Date 04/27/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 667 thousand

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Lockheed Martin - LMT - cls: 96.23 chg: +0.09 stop: 97.51

LMT under performed the broader indices and under performed the Defense sector on Tuesday. The pattern looks like LMT wants to trade lower but with major averages bouncing back it's hard for bears to get any traction. We're not suggesting new positions until we see a new decline under $95. We still see potential resistance near $97.50 and its 50-dma near $97.84. More aggressive traders may want to place there stop above the 50-dma.

Picked on April 24 at $ 94.82
Change since picked: + 1.41
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million
 

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

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Lockheed Martin - LMT - cls: 96.23 change: +0.09 stop: n/a

There is no change from our previous comments on LMT as a strangle play. The lack of movement is bad news for this kind of strategy. We need LMT to pick a direction and go. If the stock doesn't break one way or the other soon more conservative traders may want to abandon this play early. We're not suggesting new strangle plays at this time. The suggested options we had listed were the May $100 calls (LMT-ET) and the May $90 puts (LMT-QR). Our estimated cost was $1.50. We want to sell if either option rises to $2.25 or more.

Picked on April 22 at $ 95.40
Change since picked: + 0.83
Earnings Date 04/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million
 

Dropped Calls

Abercrombie - ANF - cls: 80.99 chg: -0.67 stop: 79.85

We have been stopped out of ANF at $79.85. The stock sold off sharply this morning and plunged through support near $80.00 to an intraday low of $79.61 before bouncing back. Nimble traders may want to reconsider new bullish positions on a rebound over $82.00 or $82.50.

Picked on April 22 at $ 83.51
Change since picked: - 2.52
Earnings Date 05/23/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.9 million
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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