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Call Updates

Advance Auto Parts - AAP - cls: 40.73 chg: -0.57 stop: 39.90

We seriously debated dropping AAP today. The stock has been under performing for days now. Failure to participate in today's market rally is another warning sign. More conservative traders may just want to exit now. We're not suggesting new positions. If AAP doesn't rebound higher tomorrow we'll probably drop it in the weekend newsletter. FYI: The P&F chart points to a $48 target.

Picked on April 11 at $ 40.05
Change since picked: + 0.68
Earnings Date 05/17/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 854 thousand


Ctrip.com - CTRP - cls: 70.23 chg: +0.33 stop: 67.45

CTRP spent another session, its third, churning sideways in a very narrow range along the $70 level. It almost seems like investors are waiting for something to happen with CTRP but we don't see any upcoming newsworthy events. CTRP's earnings report is expected on May 16th. We did notice that rival EXPE was due to report earnings on May 8th. The larger trend is still bullish but short-term upward momentum has died. We're turning much more cautious, especially with the major averages looking overbought. Maybe the market's reaction to the jobs report tomorrow will push CTRP one way or the other. Our short-term target is the stock's highs in the $74.50-75.00 range. The Point & Figure chart forecasts a $93 target. We do not want to hold over the May 16th earnings report.

Picked on April 29 at $ 70.63
Change since picked: - 0.40
Earnings Date 05/16/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 389 thousand


General Dynamics - GD - cls: 80.47 chg: +0.65 stop: 77.75*new*

GD continued to rebound on Thursday. The stock is now near the top of its trading range and under resistance at the $81.00 level. If you're looking for a new entry point now we'd wait for a breakout over $81.00. Our target is the 84.75-85.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. The P&F chart has produced a triple-top breakout buy signal with a $96 target. Please note that we're tightening the stop loss to $77.75, just under this week's low.

Picked on April 29 at $ 80.27
Change since picked: + 0.20
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.4 million


Holly Corp. - HOC - cls: 63.52 chg: -0.26 stop: 59.49

The OIX oil index continued to rally even though crude futures slipped again on Thursday. HOC has traded sideways this week but the larger pattern is still bullish. Readers should note that we're running out of time. We do not want to hold over the May 8th earnings report. Our target is the $67.50-70.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $74 target.

Picked on April 22 at $ 62.30
Change since picked: + 1.22
Earnings Date 05/08/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 669 thousand


Wynn Resorts - WYNN - cls: 103.63 chg: -3.42 stop: 99.95

Ouch! WYNN gave back more than half of Wednesday's impressive gains. The stock lost 3.19% today following a negative earnings report from rival MGM. MGM reported this morning and missed estimates by 8 cents. We are almost out of time with WYNN. We plan to exit on Monday at the closing bell to avoid holding over the earnings report. Please note we are adjusting the target to $107.50-108.00 since shares just missed our previous target by two cents.

Picked on April 15 at $102.44
Change since picked: + 1.19
Earnings Date 05/07/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.4 million

Put Updates

AvalonBay - AVB - cls: 121.25 chg: +1.06 stop: 130.05

We have been warning readers to watch for an oversold bounce near $120 so today's gain shouldn't be a surprise. More conservative traders may want to think about tightening their stops toward $126 or $125, which should be new overhead resistance. Our target is the $112.50-110.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $110 target.

Picked on April 30 at $124.45
Change since picked: - 3.20
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 770 thousand


Lockheed Martin - LMT - cls: 96.40 chg: +0.33 stop: 97.51

LMT continues to under perform the market and its peers. The stock traded in a very narrow 43-cent range. We suspect the stock is coiling for a breakout. The question is which direction? More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops toward $97.00. We're not suggesting new positions until we see a new decline under $95. FYI: LMT announced that it will be presenting at an investor conference on Tuesday, May 8th. Our target is the $90.50-90.00 range.

Picked on April 24 at $ 94.82
Change since picked: + 1.58
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)


Lockheed Martin - LMT - cls: 96.40 change: +0.33 stop: n/a

LMT continues to churn sideways, which is bad news for this strangle play. However, it's worth noting that the sideways consolidation is narrowing. Normally, we can think of a stock's narrowing consolidation as a spring coiling for a breakout. The question is which direction? We're not suggesting new strangle plays at this time. The suggested options we had listed were the May $100 calls (LMT-ET) and the May $90 puts (LMT-QR). Our estimated cost was $1.50. We want to sell if either option rises to $2.25 or more.

Picked on April 22 at $ 95.40
Change since picked: + 1.00
Earnings Date 04/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million

Dropped Calls

Armor Holdings - AH - cls: 77.69 chg: +5.61 stop: 68.99

Target achieved. Shares of AH soared 7.7% on big volume today. Volume came in over nine times the daily average. Strangely we could not find anything specific to account for the rally but did hear some chatter about potential buyout rumors. We had two targets on AH. Our conservative target was the $74.75-75.00 range and our aggressive target was the $77.50-80.00 range. Both targets were hit today.

Picked on April 30 at $ 71.51
Change since picked: + 6.18
Earnings Date 04/19/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 482 thousand

Dropped Puts


Dropped Strangles


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