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Call Updates

Allegheny Tech - ATI - cls: 112.75 chg: -0.80 stop: 109.99

We are reiterating our warning on ATI. The stock looks vulnerable and we expect it will dip toward the $110 level soon. Traders will want to strongly consider exiting early now to cut their losses. We're keeping the play open because $110 and the 50-dma near $110 should offer significant support. Please note we're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $119.00-120.00 range. FYI: The Point & Figure chart forecasts a $122 target.

Picked on May 08 at $113.45
Change since picked: - 0.70
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million

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Baidu.com - BIDU - cls: 130.89 chg: +1.14 stop: 124.95

BIDU continued to show relative strength and rose 0.8% in spite of another dip in the INX Internet index. While the short-term trend in BIDU is bullish we are growing more concerned about weakness in the NASDAQ and tech stocks in general that could weigh on shares of BIDU. This is an aggressive, higher-risk play. More conservative traders, if you decided to pursue BIDU, may want to tighten their stops. Our target is the $139.50-140.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $203 target.

Picked on May 14 at $130.51
Change since picked: + 0.38
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.2 million

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Peabody Energy - BTU - cls: 51.30 change: +0.99 stop: 47.99

BTU managed a new nine-month high today near $51.80. The stock closed up almost 2% as traders bought the dip and perpetuated the bullish trend of higher lows. Our target is the $54.50-55.00 range. The P&F chart is very bullish with a $69 target. Our biggest concern with calls on BTU is M&A news. The risk is that BTU might announce it is acquiring one of its smaller rivals and normally shares of the acquirer go down on the announcement.

Picked on May 09 at $ 50.70
Change since picked: + 0.60
Earnings Date 07/19/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.3 million

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General Dynamics - GD - cls: 81.01 chg: -0.35 stop: 78.85

The upward momentum in shares of GD continues to struggle near $81.50. The stock spent Thursday's session consolidating sideways. We remain bullish on the stock. We have two targets. Our conservative target will be the $84.75-85.00 range. Our aggressive target will be the $89.00-90.00 range. The P&F chart has produced a triple-top breakout buy signal with a $96 target.

Picked on April 29 at $ 80.27
Change since picked: + 0.74
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.4 million

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Goldman Sachs - GS - cls: 227.38 chg: +0.27 stop: 222.45

The bounce in GS also seemed to fizzle out on Thursday. Shares still have a bullish trend of higher lows but bulls struggled to push the stock above its current trading range. More conservative traders may want to wait for a breakout over the $230 level before initiating positions. Our target is the $238.00-240.00 range.

Picked on May 13 at $227.50
Change since picked: - 0.39
Earnings Date 06/12/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.4 million

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Precision Castparts - PCP - cls: 113.98 chg: -1.06 stop: 109.85

After four days of gains PCP finally suffered some profit taking. The stock lost 0.9% on Thursday after hitting new all time highs the day before. We're not suggesting new positions at this level. More conservative traders may want to consider a little bit of profit taking here. Our target is the $118.00-120.00 range.

Picked on May 13 at $110.91
Change since picked: + 3.07
Earnings Date 05/09/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million

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Sears Holding - SHLD - cls: 178.68 chg: +0.20 stop: 174.74

Shares of SHLD look like they want to rally but are struggling with resistance at its 100-dma and the $180 level. We are concerned about the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 and that has us growing more cautious about bullish positions in SHLD at this time. Lack of follow through on yesterday's bounce is a warning sign. Our target is the $184.00-185.00 range.

Picked on May 13 at $177.96
Change since picked: + 0.72
Earnings Date 05/31/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million

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Terex - TEX - cls: 79.32 change: -0.68 stop: 77.95

Warning! More conservative traders may want to exit TEX immediately. Shares posted their third loss in a row and the stock broke down under a two-and-a-half month trendline of support. Furthermore TEX broke down under what should have been support near $80.00. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. As of today (Thursday) the current weekly candlestick is painting a big bearish reversal with a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern!

Picked on May 09 at $ 81.16
Change since picked: - 1.84
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million

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Vangard Emergy Mkts ETF -VWO- cls: 86.17 chg: -0.50 stop: 83.45

Given today's wish-washy market the VWO struggled to build on yesterday's bullish breakout. The ETF actually gapped open lower before bouncing back. We would hesitate about opening new positions here. Our target is the $89.85-90.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher since the P&F chart points to $113.

Picked on May 16 at $ 86.15
Change since picked: + 0.02
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 416 thousand
 

Put Updates

Essex Property - ESS - cls: 120.26 chg: -2.49 stop: 126.55 *new*

The sell-off in ESS continued on Thursday. Shares lost 2% and on strong volume. Today's decline does look like a potential exit point for conservative traders. The $120 level is possible support. It's definitely potential round-number, psychological support. Don't be surprised to see a bounce here. We will adjust our stop loss to $126.55. Our target is the $115.50-115.00 range. FYI: The P&F chart points to a $100 target.

Picked on May 16 at $124.65
Change since picked: - 4.39
Earnings Date 05/02/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 281 million

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Itron - ITRI - cls: 67.15 change: -0.75 stop: 69.35

ITRI continues to churn sideways. It is worth noting that the consolidation is narrowing. That means we can expect a breakout soon. We suspect the breakout will be lower but if the major market indices rally again the ITRI breakout could be higher. We are suggesting that readers wait for a drop under $66 before buying puts again. Our target is the $60.50-60.00 range.

Picked on May 08 at $ 65.85
Change since picked: + 1.30
Earnings Date 05/02/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 547 thousand

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Russell 2000 Ishares - IWM - cls: 80.74 chg: -0.69 stop: 83.55

The Russell 2000 failed to see any follow through on yesterday's intraday (bullish) reversal. That's bad news for the market in general. While we are bearish on the IWM we were trying to get a more desirable entry point near $83.00. We're suggesting a trigger to buy puts at $82.90. We'll try and limit our risk with a tight stop at $83.55. More aggressive traders may want to put their stop just above $84.00. If we are triggered at $82.90 then we will have two targets. Our conservative target is $80.25-80.00. Our aggressive target is the $78.25-78.00 range.

Picked on May xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 58.4 million

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Las Vegas - LVS - cls: 77.58 change: +0.23 stop: 85.01

The trend in LVS continues to look bearish but the stock is arguable short-term oversold. We would be cautious about opening new positions. Our target is the $71.50-70.00 range. Currently the P&F chart sports a triple-bottom breakdown sell signal with a $75 target.

Picked on May 07 at $ 79.85
Change since picked: - 2.27
Earnings Date 05/02/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.1 million

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Vital Images - VTAL - cls: 27.75 chg: -0.25 stop: 30.05

Good news! The oversold bounce in VTAL quickly failed and the move today looks like a clear failed rally pattern. The close under $28.00 looks like another entry point to buy puts. Our target is the $25.15-25.00 range.

Picked on May 16 at $ 27.99
Change since picked: - 0.24
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 191 thousand
 

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

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Lockheed Martin - LMT - cls: 98.45 change: -1.19 stop: n/a

It is pretty much game over for our strangle on LMT. Today's decline (failed rally under resistance at $100) is a good indication that LMT will not be trading higher soon. Tomorrow is our last day before May options expire. The suggested options we had listed were the May $100 calls (LMT-ET) and the May $90 puts (LMT-QR). Our estimated cost was $1.50.

Picked on April 22 at $ 95.40
Change since picked: + 3.05
Earnings Date 04/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million
 

Dropped Calls

Marathon Oil - MRO - cls: 113.45 chg: +1.69 stop: 104.99

Target achieved - again. Three days ago MRO hit our conservative target in the $109.85-110.00 range. Today, after a big rally in crude oil futures, shares of MRO shot to another new high at $114.41. Our aggressive target was the $114.00-115.00 range. FYI: The P&F chart points to $110 and MRO has a 2-for-1 split coming up on June 19th.

Picked on May 08 at $105.55
Change since picked: + 7.90
Earnings Date 07/31/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.8 million

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WATSCO - WSO - cls: 55.04 change: -0.54 stop: 54.85

We would have been stopped out of WSO today. WSO failed to bounce higher. The lack of follow through after Wednesday's afternoon rebound is definitely bearish. Our stop loss was $54.85. It's probably not a coincidence that the intraday low was $54.84. Technical traders will note that the daily chart's MACD has produced a new sell signal.

Picked on May 06 at $ 55.73
Change since picked: - 0.69
Earnings Date 07/19/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 382 thousand
 

Dropped Puts

Equinix - EQIX - cls: 81.24 chg: +2.98 stop: 83.55

Ouch! EQIX rallied 3.8% and on big volume today. We couldn't find anything specific to account for the relative strength on Thursday. However, we did notice that the three-day candlestick pattern definitely looks like a bullish reversal. We're cutting our play early right here to try and avoid any losses if EQIX continues higher although there is a chance the stock might hit resistance in the $82.00-82.50 zone. We'd keep an eye on EQIX for any future failed rally near $85.00 and its 50-dma as a potential entry point for new bearish positions.

Picked on May 06 at $ 82.83
Change since picked: - 1.59
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 515 thousand
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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