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Call Updates

Ashland - ASH - cls: 62.96 change: +0.56 stop: 59.95

ASH displayed some relative strength on Monday. Friday's move looked like a failed rally pattern but investors bought the pull back and ASH added almost 0.9% today. Volume was light but commentators were chalking that up to summer doldrums. Our target is the 200-dma (currently at $64.48). More aggressive traders may want to aim higher but we would not hold over the late July earnings report.

Picked on June 10 at $ 61.49
Change since picked: + 1.47
Earnings Date 07/23/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 657 thousand

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Avery Dennison - AVY - cls: 66.63 chg: -0.06 stop: 64.19

AVY weathered Monday's general market malaise relatively well. Volume came in pretty low for the session. If we are garner anything from today's session it's that shares look poised to dip toward $66.00 and/or its simple 10-dma, which readers can use as a new entry point to buy calls. More conservative traders might still want to tighten their stops toward $64.80-65.00. Our target is the $69.75-70.00 range.

Picked on June 11 at $ 66.05
Change since picked: + 0.58
Earnings Date 07/24/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 728 thousand

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BP Plc. - BP - close: 69.27 change: -0.02 stop: 67.85

Shares of BP didn't move much today even though oil rose over $69 a barrel as the markets reacted to unrest in Nigeria. More aggressive traders might want to consider buying calls on a dip in the $68-69 range. We are sticking to our plan and waiting for a breakout over resistance at $70.00. We are suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $70.25. If triggered our target is the $74.85-75.00 range. We do see some resistance near $73.50. Friday's rally hit an intraday high of $70.05 and that move over $70.00 has produced a new triple-top breakout buy signal on the Point & Figure chart with a $90.00 target. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher than our $75 target but keep in mind that we plan to exit ahead of the late July earnings report.

Picked on June xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/24/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.5 million

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Central Euro. Media - CETV - cls: 93.50 chg: +0.75 stop: 87.90

CETV continued to rally higher, showing relative strength, on a day that most of the market drifted sideways to down. If you look at the intraday chart you can see that CETV struggled with the $93.50 level all day. If you're feeling optimistic then the fact that shares closed near their high for the session is a positive sign for tomorrow. We remain bullish here and could continue to buy calls in the $91-94 zone. There is resistance at the May highs in the $96-97 zone but we are aiming for a rally into the $99.00-100.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $103 target.

Picked on June 17 at $ 92.75
Change since picked: + 0.75
Earnings Date 08/02/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 124 thousand

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Chevron Corp. - CVX - close: 83.39 chg: +0.22 stop: 79.90

Shares of CVX rallied to a new high on Monday ($84.00) in spite of news that armed youths invaded a CVX oil facility in Nigeria, shutting the station down. This violence in Nigeria pushed crude oil to more than $69 a barrel. Today's rise in CVX is technically a bullish breakout from its recent trading range. However, the intraday move looks more like a bearish failed rally pattern. Our trigger to buy calls was at $83.75 so the play is now open. However, we would suggest that readers take a step back and watch to see what happens next before jumping in. If CVX dips then watch for a bounce near $82.00-82.50 as a potential entry point to buy calls. If CVX rallies then a move over $84.00 would be an entry point to buy calls. Our target is the $89.00-90.00 range. The P&F chart is very bullish with a $120 target.

Picked on June 18 at $ 83.75
Change since picked: - 0.36
Earnings Date 07/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 9.1 million

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Deere Co - DE - close: 122.02 change: +0.27 stop: 117.45

We do not see any changes from our weekend new play description on DE. We're suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $123.55. If that doesn't occur we'll be watching for an alternative entry point in the $115-116 zone but we'll evaluate it as it occurs. If we are triggered at $123.55 we will have two targets. Our first target is the $129.50-130.00 range. Our second target is the $134-135 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $152 target.

Picked on June xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 08/15/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.6 million

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General Dynamics - GD - cls: 79.56 change: -0.69 stop: 78.35

GD continues to under perform. We issued cautious comments over the weekend. Today's decline under $80.00 continues to make us nervous. More conservative traders might just want to abandon the play now and cut their losses. We're going to stick it out since GD should have support near $79.00, and at the 100-dma near $78.70. We are not suggesting new bullish positions at this time.

Picked on June 10 at $ 80.588
Change since picked: - 1.02
Earnings Date 07/18/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 million

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Global SantaFe - GSF - cls: 72.35 chg: +0.68 stop: 66.65

SStrength in crude oil lifted the oil service stocks. GSF rose another 0.9%. If you are looking for a new entry point we would watch for a dip back towards the $70.00 level. Our target is the $74.50-75.00 range.

Picked on June 03 at $ 68.86
Change since picked: + 3.49
Earnings Date 08/01/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.8 million

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China Life - LFC - cls: 51.84 chg: +1.75 stop: 47.95 *new*

The 2.9% rally in the Shanghai index helped power a 3.49% jump in shares of LFC. Volume came in pretty strong on today's gain. We're also encouraged by the stock's rally past potential resistance at the May highs. We are raising our stop loss to $47.95. Our target is the $54.00-55.00 range.

Picked on June 14 at $ 48.25
Change since picked: + 3.59
Earnings Date 08/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million

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Manpower - MAN - cls: 92.12 change: -0.72 stop: 89.90

We do not see any changes from our weekend new play description for MAN. Currently shares of MAN are consolidating under resistance at $94.00. Therefore we're suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $94.15. If triggered our target is the $99.50-100.00 range. We'll start with a stop loss at $89.90 but more conservative traders may want to use a tighter stop in the $91.25-91.50 range. MAN's P&F chart points to a $110 target.

Picked on June xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/20/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 829 thousand

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PACCAR - PCAR - cls: 89.15 change: -1.51 stop: 85.95

Warning! Today's decline in PCAR looks like a bearish reversal of Friday's bullish breakout. This relative weakness after breaking out from its trading range is not a good sign. We'd like to think it's just profit taking but more conservative traders may want to wait for a rally past $92.00 before considering new positions. More nimble traders can watch for a bounce near $88.00 as a possible entry point to buy calls. Our target is the $99.00-100.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $106 target. We do not want to hold over the late July earnings report.

Picked on June 17 at $ 90.66
Change since picked: - 1.51
Earnings Date 07/24/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million

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Penn National Gaming - PENN - cls: 62.57 chg: +0.45 stop: n/a

We do not see any changes from our weekend new play description on PENN. Shares of PENN spent Monday's session trading sideways after its initial move higher. We are speculating that there will be more suitors making bets to acquire PENN. It's a higher-risk bet. If another bidder fails to show up then any out-of-the-money calls will evaporate pretty quickly. FYI: August strikes are now available.

Picked on June 17 at $ 62.12
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million

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SanDisk - SNDK - cls: 47.31 change: +0.91 stop: 43.45

SNDK continues to look strong. The stock rose another 1.9% and did so on above average volume. We do not see any changes from our weekend comments. The P&F chart now points to a $64 target. We are suggesting calls with SNDK above $46.00. We'll use two targets. Our conservative target is the $49.50-50.00 range. Our aggressive target is the $52.50-55.00 range, which might be too optimistic given our time frame. We don't want to hold over the mid July earnings report.

Picked on June 17 at $ 46.40
Change since picked: + 0.91
Earnings Date 07/19/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.6 million

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SunPower - SPWR - cls: 58.40 change: +0.46 stop: 52.49

SPWR continues to rally with a 0.79% gain. We don't see any changes from our weekend new play description. Our target is the $64.00-65.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $70 target. We do not want to hold over the mid July earnings report.

Picked on June 17 at $ 57.94
Change since picked: + 0.46
Earnings Date 07/19/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million

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Valero Energy - VLO - cls: 77.30 chg: +0.80 stop: 73.45

Be careful with VLO. The stock broke out to a new high today. Unrest in Nigeria pushed oil to $69 a barrel. This lifted VLO to a new high at $77.89. Our trigger to buy calls was at $77.55 so the play is now open. We say, "be careful" because the move looks more like a failed rally. More conservative traders may want to wait for confirmation with a rise past $78.00. Meanwhile more nimble and aggressive traders can watch for a dip (or a bounce) near $76.00. Our target is the $84.50-85.00 range. The P&F chart currently points to an $88 target.

Picked on June 18 at $ 77.55
Change since picked: - 0.25
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 13.2 million

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XTO Energy - XTO - cls: 63.15 chg: -0.38 stop: 58.95

XTO suffered some minor profit taking after hitting a new high at $63.99 midday. We don't see any changes from our weekend comments. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. More conservative traders will want to strongly consider taking some profits right here! Our target is the $64.75-67.50 range.

Picked on May 27 at $ 57.63
Change since picked: + 5.52
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.2 million
 

Put Updates

Allegheny Tech - ATI - cls: 109.12 chg: -1.08 stop: 112.15

This morning U.S. Steel (X) was downgraded to a "reduce" and this weighed on the rest of the steel and metals sector. Shares of ATI lost almost 1% and look poised to continue lower. Aggressive traders may want to buy puts right here. We are suggesting that readers wait for a new decline under $107.75 or $107.50 before opening new put positions. More conservative traders may want to wait for a new decline under $106. We have two targets for ATI. Our first target is the $100.50-100.00 range. Our second target is the $95.50-95.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim for the simple 200-dma (currently near $92). Currently the P&F chart is bearish with a $94 target.

Picked on June 12 at $106.70
Change since picked: + 2.42
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.1 million

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Gilead Sciences - GILD - cls: 80.51 chg: -0.32 stop: 82.55

We warned readers over the weekend that GILD might spike higher on Monday due to last Friday's FDA announcement. Fortunately for us the spike failed at the $82 level. Today's move looks like a bearish reversal and bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. We would watch for a new decline under $80.00 as a new entry point for puts. Our target is the $75.25-72.50 range. FYI: The stock is set to split 2-for-1 on June 25th.

Picked on June 07 at $ 79.90
Change since picked: + 0.93
Earnings Date 07/18/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.1 million

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Las Vegas Sands - LVS - cls: 75.78 chg: -1.00 stop: 80.26

LVS continues to show relative weakness. The stock lost another 1.3% and is nearing potential support at the $75.00 mark. More conservative traders may want to wait for a new relative low under $75.00 before buying puts. Our target is the $70.50-70.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower. FYI: More conservative traders may want to avoid opening new put positions if the major market indices breakout to new highs.

Picked on June 17 at $ 76.78
Change since picked: - 1.00
Earnings Date 08/01/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.0 million

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QUALCOMM - QCOM - cls: 42.33 change: -0.30 stop: 44.05

QCOM tried to rally this morning but quickly rolled over. Aggressive traders may want to buy puts now. More conservative types can wait for a decline under $41.00 before jumping in. We're aiming for the $37.00-36.00 range.

Picked on June 10 at $ 41.87
Change since picked: + 0.46
Earnings Date 07/18/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 18.0 million

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Regency Centers - REG - cls: 72.44 chg: -1.94 stop: 77.76

REIT stocks were weak again on Monday. Shares of REG lost 2.6% on big volume. Shares closed at a new relative low under potential support at the $72.50 mark. This is definitely good news for the bears. Our target is the $70.50-70.00 range. More conservative types may want to tighten their stops toward the $75 level.

Picked on June 11 at $ 74.68
Change since picked: - 2.24
Earnings Date 08/01/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 374 thousand

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Weyerhauser - WY - cls: 81.53 chg: -0.52 stop: 82.05

There is no change from our previous comments on WY. Currently we're suggesting a trigger to buy puts at $79.49. If we are triggered our target is the $75.00-74.00 range. The $75 level is likely to be psychological support and the $74 level was support back in March. The Point & Figure chart looks very bearish with a $61 target.

Picked on June xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 08/03/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.1 million
 

Strangle Updates

None
 

Dropped Calls

Baker Hughes - BHI - cls: 89.36 change: +1.35 stop: 81.75

Target achieved. Another rise in crude oil, due to unrest in Nigeria, fueled another rally for the energy sector. Shares of BHI rose 1.5% and hit an intraday high of $89.75. Our target was the $89.00-90.00 range. We suspect the $90.00 level will be round-number, psychological resistance. However, more aggressive traders may want to aim higher. We'll be watching for another entry point if shares dip toward the $86-85 zone.

Picked on June 04 at $ 84.26
Change since picked: + 5.10
Earnings Date 07/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.3 million

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FTSE China Index - FXI - cls: 125.56 chg: +2.83 stop: 114.90

Target exceeded. The Chinese market rallied sharply today with the Shanghai exchange rising +2.9%. This lifted the FXI to a 2.3% gain. The U.S. traded shares of this exchange traded fund actually gapped open at $125.16 and hit $125.89 on an intraday basis. Our target was the $124.00-125.00 range so we would have exited at the open. The FXI and the Chinese market looks short-term overbought again but there is nothing to prevent it from becoming more overbought. We'll be watching for any pull back near the $120 zone, which might offer another entry point.

Picked on June 11 at $116.75
Change since picked: + 8.81
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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