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Call Updates

Ashland - ASH - cls: 62.44 change: -0.61 stop: 59.95

We have to issue a bearish reversal warning for ASH. The stock has produced a failed rally near its 100-dma and produced a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern with today's session. At a minimum we would look for a dip towards $62.00 and we wouldn't be surprised to see a pull back near $61.00. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the 200-dma (currently at $64.48). More aggressive traders may want to aim higher but we would not hold over the late July earnings report.

Picked on June 10 at $ 61.49
Change since picked: + 0.95
Earnings Date 07/23/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 657 thousand

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Avery Dennison - AVY - cls: 66.53 chg: -0.17 stop: 64.19

AVY actually held up relatively well. The stock only lost 0.25% versus the 1.3% drop in the S&P 500. We would still expect more weakness tomorrow. Look for a dip into the $66.00-65.75 zone. More conservative traders might still want to tighten their stops toward $64.80-65.00. Our target is the $69.75-70.00 range.

Picked on June 11 at $ 66.05
Change since picked: + 0.48
Earnings Date 07/24/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 728 thousand

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BP Plc. - BP - close: 68.89 change: -0.82 stop: 67.85

Oil stocks were hit hard today. Investors seemed to over-react to a rise in oil inventories and crude oil slipped less than 70 cents to $68.85 a barrel. Shares of BP produced another failed rally at the $70.00 mark. We are sticking to our plan and waiting for a breakout over resistance at $70.00. We are suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $70.25. If triggered our target is the $74.85-75.00 range. We do see some resistance near $73.50. Friday's rally hit an intraday high of $70.05 and that move over $70.00 has produced a new triple-top breakout buy signal on the Point & Figure chart with a $90.00 target. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher than our $75 target but keep in mind that we plan to exit ahead of the late July earnings report.

Picked on June xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/24/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.5 million

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Central Euro. Media - CETV - cls: 93.29 chg: -1.69 stop: 89.75

CETV could not escape the profit taking and shares lost 1.7% after hitting a new relative high at $95.87 this morning. Today's pull back was powered by above average volume as traders rushed in to lock in a gain after the recent rally. We would expect a dip toward the $91.00-90.00 zone. A bounce above $90 could be used as a new entry point for calls. The May 2007 highs in the $96-97 range look like resistance but we're aiming for the $99-100 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $103 target.

Picked on June 17 at $ 92.75
Change since picked: + 0.54
Earnings Date 08/02/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 124 thousand

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Chevron Corp. - CVX - close: 80.97 chg: -2.32 stop: 79.90

Investors appeared to over-react to the latest inventory numbers, which showed a rise in oil supplies this morning. Crude oil lost about 65 cents on the news, which is less than 1%. Yet the report this morning fueled a 2.4% loss in the OIX oil index. CVX shed 2.78% and did so on above average volume. It seems that with oil stocks trading near record highs investors rushed to lock in a profit. Today's move in CVX is definitely bearish but we are expecting a bounce near $80.00 and its rising 50-dma. Wait and watch for a bounce as a potential entry point for new call positions. The sharp pull back has turned the most recent P&F chart buy signal into a "bull trap" pattern.

Picked on June 18 at $ 83.75
Change since picked: - 2.78
Earnings Date 07/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 9.1 million

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Deere Co - DE - close: 121.50 change: -0.13 stop: 117.45

Warning! We have been triggered on what looks like a bull trap and failed rally pattern. DE broke out to new highs over resistance in the $123 area. Our trigger to buy calls was at $123.55. Unfortunately, when the afternoon market sell-off began, shares of DE turned tail and gave back all of its gains. The move today is a short-term bearish reversal. We're not suggesting new positions. Nimble traders can wait and watch for a bounce near $120, which should be short-term support. Our concern today is if the market continues to sell-off then DE will quickly hit our stop loss at $117.45.

Picked on June 20 at $123.55
Change since picked: - 2.05
Earnings Date 08/15/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.6 million

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General Dynamics - GD - cls: 79.48 change: -0.88 stop: 78.35

GD has produced another failed rally under $81.30 again. The move today is yet another bearish reversal. We repeat our previous suggestion that more conservative traders may want to abandon ship. We're going to stick it out since GD should have support near $79.00 and again at the 100-dma. We're not suggesting new positions.

Picked on June 10 at $ 80.58
Change since picked: - 1.10
Earnings Date 07/18/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 million

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Global SantaFe - GSF - cls: 72.08 chg: -0.68 stop: 66.65

Oil service stocks have been hitting new highs so the group was a big target for profit taking during today's sell-off. We're surprised that GSF didn't show more weakness. We're not suggesting new positions and we're repeating our previous suggestion that readers consider exiting early now to lock in a gain. Our target is the $74.50-75.00 range.

Picked on June 03 at $ 68.86
Change since picked: + 3.22
Earnings Date 08/01/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.8 million

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China Life - LFC - cls: 51.76 chg: -0.55 stop: 47.95

Readers may want to try and lock in a gain with LFC pretty soon. The stock hit an intraday high of $53.35 but eventually reversed into a bearish failed rally pattern. We would expect a pull back toward the $50 zone. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $54.00-55.00 range.

Picked on June 14 at $ 48.25
Change since picked: + 3.51
Earnings Date 08/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million

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Manpower - MAN - cls: 91.49 change: -0.81 stop: 89.90

Warning! We've been triggered on today's intraday failed-rally bull trap pattern. This morning the stock broke through resistance at $94.00 and hit 94.32 before reversing and closing with a 0.8% loss. Our suggested trigger to buy calls was at $94.15. Unfortunately, this really does look like a bull trap and MAN looks poised to dip toward $90.00. If the market really sells-off this week we wouldn't be surprised to see MAN break the $90 level. We're not suggesting new positions at this time.

Picked on June 20 at $ 94.15
Change since picked: - 2.66
Earnings Date 07/20/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 829 thousand

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PACCAR - PCAR - cls: 88.67 change: -1.60 stop: 85.95

The trading in PCAR today also looks like a bull trap, failed rally pattern. It sucked bulls in with the breakout to new highs and then quickly reverses. More conservative traders may want to exit immediately or raise their stops toward the $88.00 level, which looks like short-term support. We're not suggesting new positions at this time.

Picked on June 17 at $ 90.66
Change since picked: - 1.99
Earnings Date 07/24/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million

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Penn National Gaming - PENN - cls: 62.85 chg: -0.44 stop: n/a

We don't see any changes from our previous comments on PENN. We are speculating that there will be more suitors making bets to acquire PENN. It's a high-risk bet. If another bidder fails to show up then any out-of-the-money calls will evaporate pretty quickly. FYI: August strikes are now available.

Picked on June 17 at $ 62.12
Change since picked: + 0.73
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million

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SanDisk - SNDK - cls: 46.45 change: -1.17 stop: 43.45

SNDK under performed the broader market with a 2.45% decline. Technically the move today is a bearish reversal given the bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. Watch for the $46.00 level or the $45.00 level to act as short-term support. We would wait for signs of a bounce before considering new bullish call positions. More conservative traders may want to raise their stops. We have two targets. Our conservative target is the $49.50-50.00 range. Our aggressive target is the $52.50-55.00 range, which might be too optimistic given our time frame. We don't want to hold over the mid July earnings report.

Picked on June 17 at $ 46.40
Change since picked: + 0.05
Earnings Date 07/19/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.6 million

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SunPower - SPWR - cls: 59.45 change: +1.77 stop: 52.49

SPWR displayed relative strength today. The stock spiked to an intraday high of $62.59 and eventually closed up 3% on very strong volume. The move appears to be fueled by news that Morgan Stanley (MS) has agreed to own and finance several SPWR solar energy systems to be used a multiple Wal-Mart (WMT) locations in Hawaii and California. That's the good news. The bad news is that today's trading produced a huge failed rally, intraday reversal, near the April 2007 highs. A quick glance at the chart and you can see what appears to be a bearish double-top pattern. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. More conservative traders may want to raise their stop loss toward the $55 level.

Picked on June 17 at $ 57.94
Change since picked: + 1.51
Earnings Date 07/19/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million

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Valero Energy - VLO - cls: 74.92 chg: -1.82 stop: 72.45 *new*

The weekly oil and gas inventory report showed an unexpected rise in supplies. This sparked a profit-taking sell-off in the energy stocks. VLO lost 2.3%. While we think the reaction today is way overblown we do not think the pull back is over yet. However, the bullish trend is still in place. We are going to be aggressive here and lower our stop loss to give VLO more room to maneuver. Our new stop is at $72.45. More conservative traders may want to move their stop the opposite direction and place theirs closer to the $74.00 level. We're not suggesting new positions at this time.

Picked on June 18 at $ 77.55
Change since picked: - 2.63
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 13.2 million

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XTO Energy - XTO - cls: 61.99 chg: -1.34 stop: 58.95

XTO could not escape the market-wide profit taking. Shares lost 2.1% and produced a technical bearish reversal pattern with today's bearish engulfing candlestick. We are not suggesting new bullish positions. We strongly suggest that readers do some profit taking of their own and lock in a gain. If you choose not to exit early but want to reduce your risk consider raising your stop toward $60.00 or $61.00. Our target is the $64.75-67.50 range.

Picked on May 27 at $ 57.63
Change since picked: + 4.36
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.2 million
 

Put Updates

Allegheny Tech - ATI - cls: 108.27 chg: -2.83 stop: 112.15

Market weakness helped push ATI to a 2.5% loss but the bears were unable to pull ATI under technical support at the 100-dma or under the bottom of its recent trading range near $108. Aggressive traders may want to consider new put positions now. We have been suggesting that readers wait for a new decline under $107.75 or $107.50 before opening new put positions. More conservative traders may want to wait for a new decline under $106. We have two targets for ATI. Our first target is the $100.50-100.00 range. Our second target is the $95.50-95.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim for the simple 200-dma (currently near $92). Currently the P&F chart is bearish with a $94 target.

Picked on June 12 at $106.70
Change since picked: + 1.57
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.1 million

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Gilead Sciences - GILD - cls: 79.10 chg: -1.70 stop: 82.55

The BTK biotech index plunged 1.7% and GILD helped lead the way with a 2.1% reversal. After yesterday it looked like GILD was poised to rebound higher but the stock reversed under $81 and closed near its lows for the session. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. Our target is the $75.25-72.50 range but traders should be aware that the simple 100-dma nearing $77.50 might be technical support. FYI: The stock is set to split 2-for-1 on June 25th.

Picked on June 07 at $ 79.90
Change since picked: - 0.80
Earnings Date 07/18/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.1 million

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Las Vegas Sands - LVS - cls: 76.06 chg: -0.73 stop: 80.26

It was a quiet session for LVS. The stock churned sideways in a $1 range. More conservative traders may want to wait for a new relative low under $75.00 before buying puts. Our target is the $70.50-70.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower.

Picked on June 17 at $ 76.78
Change since picked: - 0.72
Earnings Date 08/01/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.0 million

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Mettler Toledo - MTD - cls: 95.05 chg: -1.79 stop: 99.11

MTD continued to breakdown and closed near its lows for the session with a 1.8% loss. We don't see any changes from our previous comments. Our target is the $90.50-90.00 range. Traders will also need to keep an eye on the 100-dma, near $92.60, as possible support. It's worth noting that this looks like a significant breakdown from its long-term rising channel. FYI: The P&F chart has reversed into a new triple-bottom breakdown sell signal with an $89 target (was $91).

Picked on June 19 at $ 96.75
Change since picked: - 1.70
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 215 thousand

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QUALCOMM - QCOM - cls: 43.07 change: +0.38 stop: 44.05

Whoa! QCOM displayed some intraday strength. The stock rallied to overhead resistance near $44.0 before paring its gains and closing up 0.89%. We're not sure whether this strength was due to a new deal with VIA Telecom or news that the President of CTIA, a trade group for the wireless industry, had asked President Bush to veto the International Trade Commission's two-year ban on new phones with QCOM's 3G chips in them. The markets new that QCOM would eventually ask for a presidential veto but the White House has already said it would refer the decision back to the ITC. Whatever the reason behind QCOM's strength the close over $43.00 looks dangerous for the bears. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Wait for a new decline under $42.00. More conservative types can wait for a decline under $41.00 before buying puts. We're aiming for the $37.00-36.00 range.

Picked on June 10 at $ 41.87
Change since picked: + 1.20
Earnings Date 07/18/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 18.0 million

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Regency Centers - REG - cls: 71.29 chg: -1.54 stop: 77.76

REITs were weak again. REG lost 2.1% and closed at a new relative low. Our target is the $70.50-70.00 range. More conservative types may want to tighten their stops toward the $75 level.

Picked on June 11 at $ 74.68
Change since picked: - 3.39
Earnings Date 08/01/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 374 thousand

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Weyerhauser - WY - cls: 80.68 chg: -0.53 stop: 82.05

WY is looking weaker. Shares produced a bearish failed rally today. Currently we're suggesting a trigger to buy puts at $79.49. If we are triggered our target is the $75.00-74.00 range. The $75 level is likely to be psychological support and the $74 level was support back in March. The Point & Figure chart looks very bearish with a $61 target.

Picked on June xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 08/03/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.1 million
 

Strangle Updates

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Dropped Calls

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Dropped Strangles

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