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Call Updates

Ashland - ASH - cls: 62.77 change: +0.33 stop: 59.95

Most of the market was weak this morning and ASH was no exception. Fortunately, traders bought the dip near $61.50 and the stock bounced back into the green. This looks like a new bullish entry point to buy calls, especially if you think ASH can trade over $65.00, but we reiterate our warning that the 100-dma overhead is still resistance. Our target is the 200-dma (currently at $64.48). More aggressive traders may want to aim higher but we would not hold over the late July earnings report.

Picked on June 10 at $ 61.49
Change since picked: + 1.28
Earnings Date 07/23/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 657 thousand

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Avery Dennison - AVY - cls: 66.70 chg: +0.17 stop: 64.19

AVY reversed yesterday's minor loss after traders bought the dip at the stock's rising 10-dma. The stock looks like it's coiling for a breakout over the $67.00 level soon. More conservative traders might still want to tighten their stops toward $64.80-65.00. Our target is the $69.75-70.00 range.

Picked on June 11 at $ 66.05
Change since picked: + 0.65
Earnings Date 07/24/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 728 thousand

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BP Plc. - BP - close: 69.23 change: +0.34 stop: 67.85

Oil stocks rebounded nicely in spite of a bearish failed rally for crude oil under the $70.00 a barrel level. We're still sitting on the sidelines with BP. We are sticking to our plan and waiting for a breakout over resistance at $70.00. We are suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $70.25. If triggered our target is the $74.85-75.00 range. We do see some resistance near $73.50. Friday's rally hit an intraday high of $70.05 and that move over $70.00 has produced a new triple-top breakout buy signal on the Point & Figure chart with a $90.00 target. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher than our $75 target but keep in mind that we plan to exit ahead of the late July earnings report.

Picked on June xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/24/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.5 million

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Central Euro. Media - CETV - cls: 94.68 chg: +1.39 stop: 89.75

Bulls were quick to buy the dip in CETV. The stock rallied to almost $96.00 before paring its gains. We remain bullish on the stock but we're not suggesting new positions at current levels. The May 2007 highs in the $96-97 range look like resistance but we're aiming for the $99-100 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $103 target.

Picked on June 17 at $ 92.75
Change since picked: + 1.93
Earnings Date 08/02/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 124 thousand

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Chevron Corp. - CVX - close: 82.85 chg: +1.88 stop: 79.90

Oil stocks bounced back sharply on Thursday. CVX rallied 2.3% and the bounce should nullify yesterday's bearish sell signal. More aggressive traders may want to use today's session as a new entry point to buy calls. Today's move in the stock is technically an "inside day" and traders should wait to see if CVX breaks higher or lower from here to set short-term direction. More conservative traders can wait for a new relative high over $84.00 before considering new positions.

Picked on June 18 at $ 83.75
Change since picked: - 0.90
Earnings Date 07/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 9.1 million

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Deere Co - DE - close: 124.30 change: +2.80 stop: 117.45

Thursday's rally in DE was very encouraging. There was no follow through after yesterday's bearish failed rally pattern. Traders immediately bought the pull back and the stock rose past prior resistance. We see today's move as a new entry point to buy calls. We have two targets. Our first target is the $129.50-130.00 range. Our second, more aggressive target is the $134.00-135.00 range.

Picked on June 20 at $123.55
Change since picked: + 0.75
Earnings Date 08/15/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.6 million

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Global SantaFe - GSF - cls: 72.93 chg: +0.85 stop: 66.65

GSF also enjoyed a nice bounce today. Bulls bought the dip at $70.91 and volume came in above average on the rebound. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. We reiterate our previous suggestion to lock in a gain now. Our target is the $74.50-75.00 range.

Picked on June 03 at $ 68.86
Change since picked: + 4.07
Earnings Date 08/01/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.8 million

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Manpower - MAN - cls: 94.10 change: +2.61 stop: 89.90

It is amazing the difference a day can make. Yesterday afternoon shares of MAN closed lower and looked poised to plunge toward the $90 level. The stock opened higher and climbed throughout the session to close up 2.8%. Volume was light but that might be attributed to summer. The close over $94.00 looks like a brand new entry point to buy calls. More conservative traders may want to adjust their stop loss toward $91.00. Our target is the $99.50-100.00 range.

Picked on June 20 at $ 94.15
Change since picked: - 0.05
Earnings Date 07/20/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 829 thousand

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PACCAR - PCAR - cls: 89.43 change: +0.76 stop: 85.95

The $88.00 level is holding as support for PCAR and traders bought the dip there again today. More aggressive traders might want to buy today's bounce. We're suggesting that more conservative traders will want to think about raising their stop loss toward $88.00 and look for a new rally past $92.00 before opening positions. Our target is the $99.00-100.00 range.

Picked on June 17 at $ 90.66
Change since picked: - 1.23
Earnings Date 07/24/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million

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Penn National Gaming - PENN - cls: 62.18 chg: -0.67 stop: n/a

We don't see any changes from our previous comments on PENN. We are speculating that there will be more suitors making bets to acquire PENN. It's a high-risk bet. If another bidder fails to show up then any out-of-the-money calls will evaporate pretty quickly. FYI: August strikes are now available.

Picked on June 17 at $ 62.12
Change since picked: + 0.06
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million

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SanDisk - SNDK - cls: 48.54 change: +2.09 stop: 43.45

We did not have to wait very long for SNDK to show us a bounce. Investors rushed in this morning and the stock rallied 4.4% on strong volume. More conservative traders may want to raise their stops. We have two targets. Our conservative target is the $49.50-50.00 range. Our aggressive target is the $52.50-55.00 range, which might be too optimistic given our time frame. We don't want to hold over the mid July earnings report.

Picked on June 17 at $ 46.40
Change since picked: + 2.14
Earnings Date 07/19/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.6 million

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SunPower - SPWR - cls: 60.77 change: +1.32 stop: 52.49

Bulls should be encouraged by today's rally (+2.2%) in SPWR. Yesterday's session, while positive, looked like a big bearish failed rally pattern and a potential double-top. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. More conservative traders may want to raise their stop loss toward the $55 level. Our target is the $64.00-65.00 range.

Picked on June 17 at $ 57.94
Change since picked: + 2.83
Earnings Date 07/19/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million

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Valero Energy - VLO - cls: 76.57 chg: +1.65 stop: 72.45

A pull back in crude oil futures did not impede the rally in oil stocks. VLO gapped open higher at $75.74 and rose to a 2.2% gain. The move is technically an "inside day" and readers should wait to see if the stock breaks up or down from here, which should determine short-term direction. Our bias is bullish so we'd suggest new positions now. More conservative types might want to wait for a new relative high over $78.00 before initiating positions. Our target is the $84.50-85.00 range.

Picked on June 18 at $ 77.55
Change since picked: - 0.98
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 13.2 million

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XTO Energy - XTO - cls: 62.34 chg: +0.35 stop: 58.95

Shares of XTO actually under performed the rally across the rest of the energy sector. We are not suggesting new bullish positions. We strongly suggest that readers do some profit taking of their own and lock in a gain. If you choose not to exit early but want to reduce your risk consider raising your stop toward $60.00 or $61.00. Our target is the $64.75-67.50 range.

Picked on May 27 at $ 57.63
Change since picked: + 4.71
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.2 million
 

Put Updates

Allegheny Tech - ATI - cls: 109.25 chg: +0.98 stop: 112.15

Once again we have to urge caution with ATI. The stock is seeing a lot of volatility. Shares plunged to $105.60 this morning. The drop under $108 and at $106 looked like new bearish entry points to buy puts. Yet shares rallied sharply after testing the mid June lows and now we're looking at a potential bullish double-bottom pattern. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. Odds are very good that ATI will re-challenge the $111-112 zone soon. Longer-term the bullish momentum is definitely in jeopardy but short-term it could be painful for the bears.

Picked on June 12 at $106.70
Change since picked: + 2.55
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.1 million

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Gilead Sciences - GILD - cls: 79.35 chg: +0.25 stop: 82.55

The bounce in GILD was pretty anemic. That's good news for the bears. The BTK biotech index was one of the few sector indices to close in the red today. The overall trend, with the breakdown in early June and the oversold bounce reversing near $82.00, definitely looks bearish but further strength in the broad market indices could make this a challenging trade. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. Our target is the $75.25-72.50 range but traders should be aware that the simple 100-dma nearing $77.50 might be technical support. FYI: The stock is set to split 2-for-1 on June 25th.

Picked on June 07 at $ 79.90
Change since picked: - 0.55
Earnings Date 07/18/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.1 million

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Las Vegas Sands - LVS - cls: 75.35 chg: -0.71 stop: 80.26

LVS continues to under perform the market. Shares did not participate in the market's rally today. The intraday breakdown under $75.00 looked like another entry point for puts. Lack of true follow through lower has us worried that LVS may attempt another oversold bounce soon. Stay on your toes. This has been a tough market for bearish strategies for the last few months. Our target is the $70.50-70.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower.

Picked on June 17 at $ 76.78
Change since picked: - 1.43
Earnings Date 08/01/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.0 million

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Mettler Toledo - MTD - cls: 94.83 chg: -0.22 stop: 99.11

MTD displayed some real weakness this morning. The stock gapped open lower at $93.68. We cautioned readers about the rising 100-dma as potential support and traders did buy the dip there at $93.25. The bounce back might be nothing more than an oversold bounce but we don't think it's over. Wait and watch for a failed rally near $96.00 or near its 50-dma as a new entry point. Our target is the $90.50-90.00 range. FYI: The P&F chart has reversed into a new triple-bottom breakdown sell signal with an $87 target (was $91).

Picked on June 19 at $ 96.75
Change since picked: - 1.92
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 215 thousand

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QUALCOMM - QCOM - cls: 43.56 change: +0.49 stop: 44.05

We are growing more concerned about the strength in QCOM. If you recall we added QCOM to the list as a put candidate because the company was on the losing end of a patent infringement lawsuit with BRCM. The ITC had recently announced a two-year ban on importing any new mobile phones with QCOM's new 3G chips. Thus far the market is ignoring that news, which suggest that QCOM will find a way around the ban or get it reversed. On a technical basis the stock is growing more bullish and shares look ready to breakout over resistance near $44.00. We would strongly consider an early exit here to cut our losses. We're not suggesting new positions.

Picked on June 10 at $ 41.87
Change since picked: + 1.69
Earnings Date 07/18/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 18.0 million

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Weyerhauser - WY - cls: 81.60 chg: +0.92 stop: 82.05

WY almost hit our trigger to buy puts today. The stock plunged through support near $80.00 and its 50 and 100-dma this morning but bulls bought the dip at $79.54. Our suggested trigger to buy puts is at $79.49. Thankfully we're still on the sidelines because the rebound looks pretty bullish. Aggressive traders could buy calls on this bounce with a stop loss under today's low. If WY continues to rally we'll drop it as a bearish candidate.

Picked on June xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 08/03/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.1 million
 

Strangle Updates

None
 

Dropped Calls

General Dynamics - GD - cls: 78.90 change: -0.58 stop: 78.35

GD might be showing its true colors today. After bouncing sideways for days and producing multiple failed rallies the stock finally hit our stop loss at $78.35. Shares did bounce from their lows but we'd be very careful about considering new bullish positions any time soon.

Picked on June 10 at $ 80.58
Change since picked: - 1.68
Earnings Date 07/18/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 million

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China Life - LFC - cls: 55.08 chg: +3.32 stop: 47.95

The Shanghai index rallied again up 1.1% and the Hang Seng index rose 1.3%. Money rushed in to follow the strength in Chinese stocks and LFC produced a big 6.4% gain. The U.S. traded ADR shares of LFC gapped open at $54.35 and rallied to $55.10 with big volume behind the move. Our target was the $54.00-55.00 range so we would have exited at the opening trade.

Picked on June 14 at $ 48.25
Change since picked: + 6.83
Earnings Date 08/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million
 

Dropped Puts

Regency Centers - REG - cls: 71.01 chg: -0.28 stop: 77.76

Target achieved and exceeded. REITs continued to show weakness on Thursday. Shares of REG gapped open lower at $70.99 and dipped to $69.69 before bouncing back. Our target was the $70.50-70.00 range. Given the rebound and the $70 level as potential support we'd expect a rebound toward the 10-dma soon.

Picked on June 11 at $ 74.68
Change since picked: - 3.67
Earnings Date 08/01/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 374 thousand
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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