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Call Updates

Ashland - ASH - cls: 62.27 change: -0.50 stop: 59.95

Shares of ASH weathered the market sell-off on Friday relatively well. The stock pulled back 0.79% but maintained short-term support near $62.00. Odds are good that we'll see a bit more weakness on Monday morning. If that's the case we'd watch for ASH to dip near $61.50 or maybe $61.00. A bounce above the $61.00 level can be used as a new bullish entry point. Our target is the 200-dma (currently at $64.48). More aggressive traders may want to aim higher but we would not hold over the late July earnings report.

Suggested Options:
If ASH provides a new entry point we would use the August calls but remember our plan to exit ahead of the July earnings report.

Picked on June 10 at $ 61.49
Change since picked: + 0.78
Earnings Date 07/23/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 657 thousand

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Avery Dennison - AVY - cls: 66.42 chg: -0.28 stop: 64.90*new*

AVY also held up pretty well during Friday's market-wide weakness. The stock held above short-term support near $66.00 as it continues to consolidate sideways in the $66-67 range. The lack of upward movement over the last week is weighing on the short-term technical indicators but the two-month trend is still higher. We would use another dip in the $66.00-66.25 zone as a new entry point to buy calls. The 200-dma has risen above what should be round-number support at $65.00 so we are adjusting our stop loss to $64.90. Our target is the $69.75-70.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late July earnings report.

Suggested Options:
If AVY provides another entry point we'd suggest the August or October calls.

Picked on June 11 at $ 66.05
Change since picked: + 0.37
Earnings Date 07/24/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 728 thousand

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BP Plc. - BP - close: 69.76 change: +0.53 stop: 67.85

Shares of BP managed to buck the market trend on Friday. The stock gapped open higher at $70.17 and rose to $70.52 before paring its gains. Fueling the move was news about BP's stake in Russia. The Russian government negotiated a deal with BP to buy BP's 62% stake in some substantial Russian natural gas fields. It looks like investors were happy to hear the news that BP will be paid $900 million for its share and will be given a chance to become a minority stakeholder. The deal could have turned out a lot worse with the Russian government just confiscating all of BP's assets with zero compensation. This is just one more play by the Kremlin to seize control of all of its energy assets as we near peak oil and gas for the planet. Shares of BP dipped low enough on Friday to fill the morning gap and then bounce again. Normally, given the breakout over resistance at $70.00 and the pull back under it again we would issue a warning but this time it looks like another entry point. Our suggested trigger to buy calls was at $70.25 so the play is open. We are suggesting new positions now although more conservative traders may want to wait for a new relative high over $70.50 before opening positions. The P&F chart points to a $90 target. Our target is the $74.85-75.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. FYI: We do see some resistance near $73.50.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the August calls. We do not want to hold over the late July earnings report.

BUY CALL AUG 65.00 BP-HM open interest= 65 current ask $5.70
BUY CALL AUG 70.00 BP-HN open interest=1041 current ask $2.15
BUY CALL AUG 75.00 BP-HO open interest= 341 current ask $0.45

Picked on June 22 at $ 70.25
Change since picked: - 0.49
Earnings Date 07/24/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.5 million

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Central Euro. Media - CETV - cls: 96.20 chg: +1.52 stop: 89.75

CETV displayed relative strength on Friday with a new all-time high at $97.83. Furthermore the stock posted a 1.6% gain while volume soared to almost 20 times the daily average. Unfortunately, we cannot find any news that might explain the spike higher at the open or the huge surge in volume near the closing bell. Sometimes big volume at a new high can mean distribution and a potential top but that doesn't look like the case here with CETV rebounding sharply higher into the closing bell. Given the sharp rise in volume, and knowing that the Russell rebalancing was this weekend, we decided to check the Russell.com website and sure enough CETV was one of the new companies being added to the indices, which explains the big volume. Why there was no press release from CETV about this event we can't say. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $99.00-100.00 range. It's worth noting that the price target on the Point & Figure chart has grown from $103 to $118 in the last couple of weeks. If you look at the bullish channel on the weekly chart it is tempting to want to aim higher. If you want to see the Russell additions click here:
http://tinyurl.com/39o3x3

Suggested Options:
We are not suggesting new positions in CETV at this time.

Picked on June 17 at $ 92.75
Change since picked: + 3.45
Earnings Date 08/02/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 124 thousand

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Chevron Corp. - CVX - close: 81.55 chg: -1.30 stop: 79.90

Oil stocks could not evade the market sell-off even though crude oil futures rebounded on Friday. Shares of CVX lost 1.5% although it wasn't a true break from Thursday's "inside day". We are somewhat cautious here and would suggest waiting for a new rise past $83.00 before considering new positions. More conservative traders can wait for a new relative high over $84.00 before considering new positions. Our target is the $89.00-90.00 range.

Suggested Options:
If CVX provides a new entry point we would suggest the August or September calls. We do not want to hold over the late July earnings report.

Picked on June 18 at $ 83.75
Change since picked: - 2.20
Earnings Date 07/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 9.1 million

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Deere Co - DE - close: 123.35 change: -0.95 stop: 117.45

We think DE also held up very well during the market mayhem on Friday. Shares tagged a new all-time high at $125.64 before sliding into the red. Overall we remain bullish on the stock. Readers can choose to buy calls here or look for a dip near its rising 10-dma around $120.85. Conservative traders might want to consider a tighter stop loss closer to $120. We have two targets. Our first target is the $129.50-130.00 range. Our second, more aggressive target is the $134.00-135.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $152 target.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the August or September calls. We plan to exit ahead of the mid August earnings report.

BUY CALL AUG 120 DE-HD open interest=100 current ask $8.30
BUY CALL AUG 125 DE-HE open interest=203 current ask $5.50
BUY CALL AUG 130 DE-HF open interest=179 current ask $3.50

BUY CALL SEP 120 DE-ID open interest=1387 current ask $10.00
BUY CALL SEP 125 DE-IE open interest=2680 current ask $ 7.30
BUY CALL SEP 130 DE-IF open interest=1931 current ask $ 5.10

Picked on June 20 at $123.55
Change since picked: - 0.20
Earnings Date 08/15/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.6 million

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Global SantaFe - GSF - cls: 73.70 chg: +0.77 stop: 66.65

GSF also turned in a strong session with a 1% gain and a new closing high. The stock saw record volume on Friday, which was due to GSF being added to the Russell indices. You can see it on the additions lists here: http://tinyurl.com/39o3x3
We remain bullish on GSF but the stock is nearing our target so we're not suggesting new positions. More conservative traders will want to strongly consider exiting now to lock in a gain. Our target is the $74.50-75.00 range.

Suggested Options:
We are not suggested new positions in GSF at this time.

Picked on June 03 at $ 68.86
Change since picked: + 4.84
Earnings Date 08/01/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.8 million

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Manpower - MAN - cls: 93.20 change: -0.90 stop: 89.90

The market weakness on Friday took the wind out of MAN's sails but we suspect it's a short-term issue. Traders bought the dip near $92.00 midday and MAN pared its losses by the close. We see the intraday rebound as a new entry point to buy calls. Conservative traders could try and reduce their risk by raising their stop loss toward $91 or toward $92.00. Just be aware that the market in general (and thus MAN) could see some weakness on Monday as stocks flush out any left over selling from Friday. Our target is the $99.50-100.00 range. The P&F chart has a triple-top breakout buy signal with a $110 target.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the July or August calls. We plan to exit ahead of the late July earnings. July strikes expire in four weeks.

BUY CALL JUL 90.00 MAN-GR open interest=237 current ask $5.40
BUY CALL JUL 95.00 MAN-GS open interest=114 current ask $2.50
BUY CALL JUL 100.0 MAN-GT open interest=297 current ask $0.95

BUY CALL AUG 90.00 MAN-HR open interest= 0 current ask $6.60
BUY CALL AUG 95.00 MAN-HS open interest= 21 current ask $3.70
*we do not see any Aug 100 strikes available.

Picked on June 20 at $ 94.15
Change since picked: - 0.95
Earnings Date 07/20/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 829 thousand

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Penn National Gaming - PENN - cls: 61.60 chg: -0.58 stop: n/a

Our high risk play on PENN is taking a turn for the worse. The stock is trading down towards its post-gap low. Shares gapped higher on June 15th after announcing it would be bought for $6.1 billion by two investment companies. There has been a lot of speculation that more suitors will show up and push the price higher. That's why we're suggesting calls, since one analyst believes the final buyout price could be closer to $80.00. However, this is a very speculative and high-risk play. If a suitor fails to show up then any out of the money calls will quickly disintegrate. Currently the final buyout price is $67 a share. After the deal was announced Jim, our weekend market commentator, disclosed that he bought a few calls expecting more suitors to make a bid for PENN.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the August or October calls.

BUY CALL AUG 65.00 UQN-HM open interest=1916 current ask $0.80
BUY CALL AUG 70.00 UQN-HN open interest= 0 current ask $0.55

BUY CALL OCT 65.00 UQN-JM open interest=1512 current ask $1.35
BUY CALL OCT 70.00 UQN-JN open interest= 0 current ask $0.70

Picked on June 17 at $ 62.12
Change since picked: - 0.52
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million

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SanDisk - SNDK - cls: 47.90 change: -0.12 stop: 43.45

SNDK turned in a strong week following its recent breakout over resistance near $46 and its 200-dma. We remain bullish on the stock but would only consider new positions if we saw a dip (or better yet a bounce) near the rising 10-dma around $46.25. More conservative traders may want to raise their stops. We have two targets. Our conservative target is the $49.50-50.00 range. Our aggressive target is the $52.50-55.00 range, which might be too optimistic given our time frame. We don't want to hold over the mid July earnings report.

Suggested Options:
If SNDK provides a new entry point we'd suggest the July or August calls. Remember, we plan to exit ahead of the mid July earnings report and that July strikes expire in four weeks.

Picked on June 17 at $ 46.40
Change since picked: + 1.50
Earnings Date 07/19/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.6 million

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Valero Energy - VLO - cls: 76.45 chg: -0.12 stop: 72.45

VLO did not produce any definitive moves following Thursday's "inside day" but we remain bullish on the stock and the sector. We are suggesting new positions here but it would be perfectly fine to wait for a new relative high over $78.00 before initiating positions. More conservative traders might want to think about raising their stop loss toward last week's low. We're going to keep our stop under $72.50 and its 50-dma for now. Our target is the $84.50-85.00 range.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the August calls. However, we plan to exit ahead of the late July earnings report.

BUY CALL AUG 75.00 ZPY-HO open interest=1106 current ask $4.60
BUY CALL AUG 80.00 ZPY-HP open interest= 779 current ask $2.25
BUY CALL AUG 85.00 ZPY-HQ open interest=1710 current ask $0.95

Picked on June 18 at $ 77.55
Change since picked: - 1.10
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 13.2 million

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XTO Energy - XTO - cls: 61.45 chg: -0.89 stop: 58.95

Last week was rough on XTO. The stock pulled back about 3% and Friday's session produced a bearish breakdown under short-term support at the 10-dma. We are not suggesting new positions at this time although we will be watching for a bounce near $60.00, which should be round-number support. We are repeating our suggestion that readers consider taking some money off the table and lock in a potential profit. Our target is the $64.75-67.50 range.

Suggested Options:
We are not suggesting new positions on XTO.

Picked on May 27 at $ 57.63
Change since picked: + 3.82
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.2 million
 

Put Updates

Allegheny Tech - ATI - cls: 106.77 chg: -2.48 stop: 112.15

The overall pattern continues to look bearish for ATI. There appears to be a clear top in place and both weekly and daily technical indicators are bearish. The stock produced multiple failed rallies under $112 and Friday saw another failed rally under $110. The recent weakness looks like a new entry point to buy puts. However, ATI has bounced twice in the $105.50-105.60 range. More conservative traders may want to wait for a new relative low under $105.50 before initiating positions. Currently we have two targets. The first target is the $100.50-100.00 range since the $100 level would normally be round-number support. Our second, more aggressive target is the $95.50-95.00 range although we may need to adjust this to the 200-dma, which is rising and currently near $94.00. The P&F chart currently points to a $94 target.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the August puts. July puts will work but they expire in four weeks and we want to hold up to (but not over) the earnings report in late July. FYI: Double check your symbols with your broker. Normally an August $110 put would have a -TB suffix.

BUY PUT AUG 110 ATI-TX open interest=147 current ask $7.90
BUY PUT AUG 105 ATI-TA open interest=165 current ask $5.30
BUY PUT AUG 100 ATI-TT open interest=176 current ask $3.40

Picked on June 12 at $106.70
Change since picked: + 0.07
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.1 million

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Gilead Sciences - GILD - cls: 78.48 chg: -0.87 stop: 82.55

The BTK biotech index lost 1.8% and plunged through support near the 780 level. Friday marked the close to a painful week for the sector and as a group they look a little short-term oversold and due for a bounce. Speaking of bounces GILD dipped to $77.46 near its rising 100-dma and then rebounded more than a $1.00. While the overall trend in GILD looks bearish we're not suggesting new positions. The stock looks poised to bounce back toward the $80 region. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. Our target is the $75.25-72.50 range but traders should be aware that the simple 100-dma nearing $77.50 might be technical support. FYI: The stock is set to split 2-for-1 on June 25th. Our post-split target is $37.62-36.25. Our post-split stop loss is $41.27. If you are currently holding options on GILD you will see the strike price and symbol change, the value will probably halve while the number of contracts you own should double due to the 2:1 split.

Suggested Options:
We are not suggesting new positions in GILD. We do not want to hold over the mid July earnings report.

Picked on June 07 at $ 79.90
Change since picked: - 1.42
Earnings Date 07/18/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.1 million

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Las Vegas Sands - LVS - cls: 74.85 chg: -0.50 stop: 80.26

LVS has been flirting with a breakdown under round-number support at $75.00 for days. Shares finally did it on Friday and it closed under $75 on above average volume, which is bearish. However, before you jump in with new bearish positions it's worth noting that shares were trading up around $75.50 in after hours on Friday. We remain bearish on the stock but we're cautious since we can't see any news or event that would fuel an after hours rebound on Friday. Look for a failed rally under the 10-dma (near 76.85) or a new relative low (under 74.63) as potential entry points to buy puts. Stay on your toes. This has been a tough market for bearish strategies for the last few months. Our target is the $70.50-70.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the August or September puts.

Picked on June 17 at $ 76.78
Change since picked: - 1.93
Earnings Date 08/01/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.0 million

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Mettler Toledo - MTD - cls: 94.33 chg: -0.50 stop: 99.11

On Thursday MTD bounced from technical support at its rising 100-dma. Yet the bounce did not get very far as shares slipped 0.5% on Friday. There is still support at the 100-dma so we're not suggesting new positions at this time. Wait and watch for a failed rally under the 10-dma near $97.00 (or under $96.00) before considering new put positions. Our target is the $90.50-90.00 range. FYI: The P&F chart has reversed into a new triple-bottom breakdown sell signal with an $87 target (was $91).

Suggested Options:
If MTD provides a new entry point we are suggesting the July or August puts. FYI: The July strikes expire in four weeks. We do not want to hold over the late July earnings report.

Picked on June 19 at $ 96.75
Change since picked: - 2.42
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 215 thousand

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QUALCOMM - QCOM - cls: 42.99 change: -0.57 stop: 44.05

On Friday it was announced that the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) had denied QCOM's request to delay the ITC's previous order banning importation of mobile phones with QCOM's latest chips (source: Reuters). We are surprised that shares of QCOM did not trade lower than its 1.3% decline on Friday given this news. There is the off chance that President Bush will make an exception and step in to influence the ITC's decision but the White House has already said that is unlikely to occur. There is also a chance that QCOM will give in and work out some sort of settlement with BRCM, who won the patent infringement case that started this conflict. However, QCOM has not hinted it's willing to do any talking with BRCM thus far. Given this story we remain bearish on the stock. More aggressive traders may want to buy puts here. We would wait for a new decline under $42.00 or $41.00 to confirm the bearish trend. Our target is the $37.00-36.00 range. We do not want to hold over the mid July earnings report.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the July or August puts. FYI: The July options expire in four weeks.

BUY PUT JUL 45.00 AAO-SI open interest=39348 current ask $2.45
BUY PUT JUL 42.50 AAO-SV open interest=59345 current ask $0.95
BUY PUT JUL 40.00 AAO-SH open interest=76172 current ask $0.30

BUY PUT AUG 45.00 AAO-TI open interest= 2181 current ask $2.95
BUY PUT AUG 42.50 AAO-TV open interest= 2739 current ask $1.65
BUY PUT AUG 40.00 AAO-TH open interest=11231 current ask $0.85

Picked on June 10 at $ 41.87
Change since picked: + 1.12
Earnings Date 07/18/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 18.0 million

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Weyerhauser - WY - cls: 80.57 chg: -1.03 stop: 82.05

Shares of WY continue to flirt with a breakdown under $80.00 and technical support at its 50 and 100-dma. We are sticking to our plan and waiting for WY to hit our trigger at $79.49. If triggered our target is the $75.00-74.00 range. The P&F chart is very bearish with a $61 target.

Suggested Options:
If triggered at $79.49 we are suggesting the July or August puts. Remember, we want to exit ahead of the July earnings report.

BUY PUT JUL 80.00 WY-SP open interest=4980 current ask $1.50
BUY PUT JUL 75.00 WY-SO open interest=4871 current ask $0.35

BUY PUT AUG 80.00 WY-TP open interest= 750 current ask $2.85
BUY PUT AUG 75.00 WY-TO open interest= 281 current ask $1.20

Picked on June xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/20/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.1 million
 

Strangle Updates

None
 

Dropped Calls

PACCAR - PCAR - cls: 87.42 change: -2.01 stop: 85.95

We are giving up on PCAR. The stock lost 2.2% and did so on big volume this Friday. The breakdown under $88.00 suggests that PCAR has farther to consolidate and shares may dip toward the 50-dma or the $84 level before bouncing again. We are dropping it here but will keep an eye on it for a breakout (either direction) from its previous trading range.

Picked on June 17 at $ 90.66
Change since picked: - 3.24
Earnings Date 07/24/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million

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SunPower - SPWR - cls: 64.18 change: +3.41 stop: 52.49

Target achieved. SPWR broke out to new all-time highs and past resistance near $62.50 on huge volume. SPWR hit an intraday high of $64.88. Our target was the $64.00-65.00 range. The play is closed but we'll be keeping an eye on the stock for another entry point down the road.

Picked on June 17 at $ 57.94
Change since picked: + 6.24
Earnings Date 07/19/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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