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Call Updates

Ashland - ASH - cls: 61.80 change: -0.47 stop: 59.95

Lack of follow through on the recent bounce is not looking good for the bulls. The technical indicators for ASH are starting to look more bearish. At this time we're expecting a dip toward $61.00. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. Our target is the 200-dma (currently at $64.48). More aggressive traders may want to aim higher but we would not hold over the late July earnings report.

Picked on June 10 at $ 61.49
Change since picked: + 0.31
Earnings Date 07/23/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 657 thousand

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Avery Dennison - AVY - cls: 66.06 chg: -0.36 stop: 64.90

The market weakness today pulled AVY under short-term support at $66.00 on an intraday basis. The dip looks like a potential entry point but traders might feel more comfortable waiting for a bounce before launching new positions. Our target is the $69.75-70.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late July earnings report.

Picked on June 11 at $ 66.05
Change since picked: + 0.01
Earnings Date 07/24/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 728 thousand

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BP Plc. - BP - close: 70.11 change: +0.35 stop: 67.85

News that the Nigerian labor strike had ended pulled crude oil to a hefty loss yet shares of BP bucked the negative trend in oil stocks. The stock actually hit a new relative high midday. We remain bullish on the stock with shares over $70.00 but there's a good chance BP could see another correction toward its rising 10-dma. The P&F chart points to a $90 target. Our target is the $74.85-75.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. FYI: We do see some resistance near $73.50.

Picked on June 22 at $ 70.25
Change since picked: - 0.14
Earnings Date 07/24/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.5 million

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Cleveland Cliffs - CLF - cls: 78.05 chg: -1.41 stop: 74.99

It was a rough day for the bulls. CLF tried to rally over the $80 level but failed multiple times. If support wasn't so close near $75 and its 50-dma then today's session would look like a bearish entry point. We're going to stick to our plan and wait for a breakout over resistance at $80.00. Our suggested trigger to buy calls is at $80.55. If triggered our target is the $89.00-90.00 range. We plan to exit ahead of the late July earnings report. FYI: Readers might want to consider buying puts if CLF trades under $75.00.

Picked on June xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million

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Chevron Corp. - CVX - close: 82.95 chg: +1.40 stop: 79.90

Tension between the world's major oil companies and the Venezuelan government over plans to nationalize the oil industry there did not stop any rally in CVX. Instead an analyst upgrade to a "buy" helped push CVX to a 1.7% gain. The intraday move over $83.00 looked like another entry point. More conservative traders can wait for a new relative high over $84.00 before considering new positions. Our target is the $89.00-90.00 range.

Picked on June 18 at $ 83.75
Change since picked: - 0.80
Earnings Date 07/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 9.1 million

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Deere Co - DE - close: 122.79 change: -0.56 stop: 117.45

For the moment we remain bullish on DE even though today's session looks like another failed rally near $125. A bounce from here or somewhere above the $120 level can be used as a new entry point. Conservative traders might want to consider a tighter stop loss closer to $120. We have two targets. Our first target is the $129.50-130.00 range. Our second, more aggressive target is the $134.00-135.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $152 target.

Picked on June 20 at $123.55
Change since picked: - 0.76
Earnings Date 08/15/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.6 million

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Global SantaFe - GSF - cls: 72.42 chg: -1.28 stop: 66.65

We do not see any changes from our weekend comments. We're not suggesting new positions. More conservative traders will want to strongly consider exiting now to lock in a gain. Our target is the $74.50-75.00 range.

Picked on June 03 at $ 68.86
Change since picked: + 3.56
Earnings Date 08/01/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.8 million

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Russell 2000 iShares - IWM - cls: 82.49 chg: -0.43 stop: 81.35

More aggressive traders may want to buy this dip toward $82.00. We're a little concerned with the big volume on the session. More conservative traders may want to wait for a new move over $83.50 and use a tighter stop loss just under $82.00. We're going to set our stop under the June low. There is some resistance in the $84.50-85.00 zone but the Point & Figure chart forecasts a $95 target. We are aiming for the $86.50-87.50 range. The RUT doesn't move very quickly so September calls might work better.

Picked on June 24 at $ 82.85
Change since picked: - 0.43
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 71.6 million

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Mastercard - MA - close: 161.95 chg: -6.48 stop: 157.99

Ouch! It was a nasty day for MA. The stock lost 3.8% and produced what looks like a bearish (reversal) engulfing candlestick pattern. We would definitely wait for signs of a bounce before considering new positions. MA should find some short-term support near $160 and its rising 10-dma near $159. There is still a chance that funds will buy this dip to do some window dressing. This is an aggressive, higher-risk play. Our target is the $179.50-185.00 range.

Picked on June 24 at $168.43
Change since picked: - 6.48
Earnings Date 08/01/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.7 million

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Manpower - MAN - cls: 92.60 change: -0.60 stop: 89.90

MAN has produced another bearish failed rally pattern. This is the third failed rally in the last five days. Thus far MAN has a bullish trend of higher lows but it wouldn't take much to break that pattern. A bounce near $92.00 could be used as a new entry point but readers might want to tighten their stop losses. Our target is the $99.50-100.00 range. The P&F chart has a triple-top breakout buy signal with a $110 target.

Picked on June 20 at $ 94.15
Change since picked: - 1.55
Earnings Date 07/20/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 829 thousand

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Pacific Ethanol - PEIX - cls: 12.71 chg: -0.12 stop: 11.90

If you look at the intraday chart it appears that traders were buying the dip near $12.50 late this afternoon. We remain bullish and don't see any changes from our weekend comments. We're playing the story on this stock because the technicals are still pretty bearish and the P&F chart points to a $9.50 target. We are suggesting call positions now or on a dip back toward $12.00. This does feel like an aggressive, higher-risk entry point given Friday's failure to close over $13.00. More conservative traders may want to wait for a rise past $13.35 or $13.50 before initiating new positions. There is potential resistance near $14.00, the 100-dma and the 200-dma. We're going to aim for the 200-dma, which means we'll use a $15.50-15.75 exit range for now. FYI: We cannot find a future earnings date for PEIX but suspect it will be in August or September.

Picked on June 24 at $ 12.83
Change since picked: - 0.12
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 892 thousand

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Penn National Gaming - PENN - cls: 61.00 chg: -0.60 stop: n/a

PENN continues to slide, which is something of a surprise since the current deal values PENN near $67 a share. This is a speculative play gambling on more suitors showing up to drive the buyout price higher.

Picked on June 17 at $ 62.12
Change since picked: - 1.12
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million

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SanDisk - SNDK - cls: 47.13 change: -0.77 stop: 43.45

SNDK lost 1.6% during today's profit taking. Watch for the 10-dma near $46.50 or the $46.00 level to offer short-term support. We have two targets. Our conservative target is the $49.50-50.00 range. Our aggressive target is the $52.50-55.00 range, which might be too optimistic given our time frame. We don't want to hold over the mid July earnings report.

Picked on June 17 at $ 46.40
Change since picked: + 0.73
Earnings Date 07/19/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.6 million

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Valero Energy - VLO - cls: 75.94 chg: -0.51 stop: 72.45

VLO continues to churn sideways. We are suggesting new positions here but it would be perfectly fine to wait for a new relative high over $78.00 before initiating positions. More conservative traders might want to think about raising their stop loss toward last week's low. We're going to keep our stop under $72.50 and its 50-dma for now. Our target is the $84.50-85.00 range.

Picked on June 18 at $ 77.55
Change since picked: - 1.61
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 13.2 million

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XTO Energy - XTO - cls: 60.49 chg: -0.96 stop: 58.95

Uh-oh! XTO is giving back a lot of our unrealized gains. The selling stalled near round-number support at $60.00. Technically a bounce from here could be a new entry point but we'd be cautious. We're not suggesting new positions. We are repeating our suggestion that readers consider taking some money off the table and lock in a potential profit. Our target is the $64.75-67.50 range.

Picked on May 27 at $ 57.63
Change since picked: + 2.86
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.2 million
 

Put Updates

Allegheny Tech - ATI - cls: 105.70 chg: -1.07 stop: 112.15

Today's weakness in ATI and its relative "closing" low looks like a new entry point to buy puts. However, over the weekend we suggested that more conservative traders may want to wait for a new relative low under $105.50 before initiating positions. Currently we have two targets. The first target is the $100.50-100.00 range since the $100 level would normally be round-number support. Our second, more aggressive target is the $95.50-95.00 range although we may need to adjust this to the 200-dma, which is rising and currently near $94.00. The P&F chart currently points to a $94 target.

Picked on June 12 at $106.70
Change since picked: - 1.00
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.1 million

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Gilead Sciences - GILD - cls: 38.72 chg: -0.52 stop: 41.27

GILD sank to a new two-month low and eventually closed right at technical support near the 100-dma. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our post-split target is $37.62-36.25.

Picked on June 07 at $ 39.95 *split adjusted
Change since picked: - 1.23
Earnings Date 07/18/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.1 million

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Las Vegas Sands - LVS - cls: 74.72 chg: -0.13 stop: 80.26

LVS sank to a new multi-month low but the sharp rebound doesn't inspire the bears. We don't see any big changes from our weekend comments. Readers may want to lower their stops. Our target is the $70.50-70.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower.

Picked on June 17 at $ 76.78
Change since picked: - 2.06
Earnings Date 08/01/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.0 million

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Mettler Toledo - MTD - cls: 94.41 chg: +0.08 stop: 99.11

Today's action in MTD looks like a new bearish entry point. The stock produced a bearish failed rally near the $96.00 level. Our target is the $90.50-90.00 range. FYI: The P&F chart has reversed into a new triple-bottom breakdown sell signal with an $87 target (was $91).

Picked on June 19 at $ 96.75
Change since picked: - 2.34
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 215 thousand

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QUALCOMM - QCOM - cls: 42.53 change: -0.46 stop: 44.05

We are still surprised that QCOM is not showing more weakness given the recent turn of events. On Friday the ITC denied QCOM's request for a stay on the importation ban. We would still consider put positions here but readers might want to wait for a new decline under $42.00 or $41.00 before opening positions. Our target is the $37.00-36.00 range. We do not want to hold over the mid July earnings report.

Picked on June 10 at $ 41.87
Change since picked: + 0.66
Earnings Date 07/18/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 18.0 million

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Weyerhauser - WY - cls: 79.98 chg: -0.59 stop: 82.05

Our bearish play in WY is now open. The stock dipped to $79.49 this afternoon and closed under what should have been support at $80.00 and its 50 and 100-dma. Our trigger to buy puts was at $79.49. Now that the play is open our target is the $75.00-74.00 range. The P&F chart is very bearish with a $61 target.

Picked on June 25 at $ 79.49
Change since picked: + 0.49
Earnings Date 07/20/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.1 million
 

Strangle Updates

None
 

Dropped Calls

Central Euro. Media - CETV - cls: 98.39 chg: +2.19 stop: 89.75

Target achieved. CETV continued to rally on Monday. The stock hit an intraday high of $99.58. Our target was the $99.00-100.00 range. CETV has been showing a lot of relative strength so we'd keep an eye on it for another entry point in the future. Right now shares look overbought with the run from $90 toward $100.

Picked on June 17 at $ 92.75
Change since picked: + 5.64
Earnings Date 08/02/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 124 thousand
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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