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Call Updates

Ashland - ASH - cls: 62.09 change: +0.29 stop: 59.95

We are encouraged by ASH's bounce today but the stock is developing a short-term bearish trend of lower highs, which makes us a little nervous. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops toward $61.00. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the 200-dma (currently at $64.48). More aggressive traders may want to aim higher but we would not hold over the late July earnings report.

Picked on June 10 at $ 61.49
Change since picked: + 0.60
Earnings Date 07/23/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 657 thousand

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Avery Dennison - AVY - cls: 65.59 chg: -0.47 stop: 64.90

The action in AVY today was bearish. The stock has fallen through the bottom of its short-term trading range and closed under what should have been support near $66.00. The technical indicators are turning bearish and the daily chart's MACD indicator has produced a new sell signal. More conservative traders may want to exit now to cut their losses. We are not willing to abandon the play just yet. AVY should find additional support near $65.00, which is bolstered by both its 100-dma and its 200-dma. A bounce from $65.00 could be used as a new entry point but we hesitate to suggest new positions. Our target is the $69.75-70.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late July earnings report.

Picked on June 11 at $ 66.05
Change since picked: - 0.46
Earnings Date 07/24/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 728 thousand

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BP Plc. - BP - close: 70.11 change: +0.35 stop: 67.85

BP is still bucking the trend. The stock gapped open higher at $71.30 but pared its gains to only close up 0.4%. Volume has been above average during the current five-day run. We are still bullish but today's 2% pull back in oil should make bulls cautious. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops toward $68.75, which is just under last week's lows. The P&F chart points to a $90 target. Our target is the $74.85-75.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. FYI: We do see some resistance near $73.50.

Picked on June 22 at $ 70.25
Change since picked: - 0.14
Earnings Date 07/24/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.5 million

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Cleveland Cliffs - CLF - cls: 75.96 chg: -2.09 stop: 74.99

Yesterday's failed rally under $80 has turned into retreat back towards support near $75.00 and its 50-dma. Aggressive and nimble traders may want to try and catch a bounce from here. At the same time if CLF breaks down under $75.00 you could switch directions, buy puts, and aim for support near $70.00. We're sticking to our plan for now and suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $80.55. If triggered our target is the $89.00-90.00 range. We plan to exit ahead of the late July earnings report.

Picked on June xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million

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Chevron Corp. - CVX - close: 82.70 chg: -0.25 stop: 79.90

It was a big day for the major oil companies. Today was the deadline to accept a minority stake in their own investments in Venezuela. The Chavez government has seized control of the oil industry and gave the industry until today to agree to new, minority-stake terms. ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips both said no to the proposal while CVX was one of four major oil companies that did agree to continue doing business in Venezuela. This didn't appear to have any impact on shares of CVX and the stock held up relatively well considering a 2% pull back in the price of crude. We remain bullish but more conservative traders may want to wait for a new relative high over $84.00 before considering new positions. Our target is the $89.00-90.00 range.

Picked on June 18 at $ 83.75
Change since picked: - 1.05
Earnings Date 07/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 9.1 million

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Deere Co - DE - close: 120.57 change: -2.22 stop: 117.45

Today's dip toward $120 is a potential entry point for new call positions. However, traders may want to take a cautious approach to new positions since DE failed three times in the last few days to breakout successfully over the $125 level. Short-term technicals are turning bearish with the lack of upward momentum. We would definitely wait for signs of a bounce before launching new positions. Conservative traders might want to consider a tighter stop loss closer to $120. We have two targets. Our first target is the $129.50-130.00 range. Our second, more aggressive target is the $134.00-135.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $152 target.

Picked on June 20 at $123.55
Change since picked: - 2.98
Earnings Date 08/15/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.6 million

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Global SantaFe - GSF - cls: 71.25 chg: -1.17 stop: 66.65

It has been a painful couple of days as GSF shaves off our unrealized gains. We hope some readers took our previous suggestions to lock in an early exit. Volume behind today's 1.6% decline was very high, which is normally a warning sign! More conservative traders may want to raise their stop loss toward the $70 level. We're not suggesting new positions. Our target is the $74.50-75.00 range.

Picked on June 03 at $ 68.86
Change since picked: + 2.39
Earnings Date 08/01/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.8 million

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Russell 2000 iShares - IWM - cls: 81.88 chg: -0.61 stop: 81.35

Our bullish play on the Russell 2000 is definitely not panning out as planned. Today's decline and close under $82.00 is bearish. The iShares look poised to dip toward $81.00 and its 100-dma. We are not suggesting new positions and more conservative traders may want to cut their losses now!

Picked on June 24 at $ 82.85
Change since picked: - 0.97
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 71.6 million

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Mastercard - MA - close: 161.82 chg: -0.13 stop: 157.99

The profit taking in MA appears to have stalled a bit. Traders bought the dip at $160.00, which is round-number support and under-pinned by technical support at the rising 10-dma. A bounce from here could be used as a new entry point to buy calls although we would be hesitant to open new positions if the major averages continue to dip. More conservative traders could raise their stop toward $160. However, we want to remind you that this is a higher-risk, more aggressive play. Our target is the $179.50-185.00 range.

Picked on June 24 at $168.43
Change since picked: - 6.61
Earnings Date 08/01/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.7 million

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Manpower - MAN - cls: 92.48 change: -0.12 stop: 89.90

We do not see any changes from our previous comments on MAN. The stock traded sideways in a $1.40 range and so far is maintaining its bullish trend of higher lows. Yet we suspect that if the major market averages produce another big decline then MAN will plunge toward the $90.00 level pretty quickly. We would hesitate to open new positions here given the market weakness. Our target is the $99.50-100.00 range. The P&F chart has a triple-top breakout buy signal with a $110 target.

Picked on June 20 at $ 94.15
Change since picked: - 1.67
Earnings Date 07/20/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 829 thousand

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Pacific Ethanol - PEIX - cls: 12.63 chg: -0.08 stop: 11.90

It was starting to look like another ugly day for PEIX but traders bought the pull back late this afternoon. The stock lost 0.6% but looks poised to move higher tomorrow. Volume on today's session was light but that might be due to lighter summer trading volumes. We're still suggesting bullish positions but more conservative traders may want to wait for a rise past $13.35 or $13.50 before initiating new positions. There is potential resistance near $14.00, the 100-dma and the 200-dma. We're going to aim for the 200-dma, which means we'll use a $15.50-15.75 exit range for now. FYI: We cannot find a future earnings date for PEIX but suspect it will be in August or September.

Picked on June 24 at $ 12.83
Change since picked: - 0.20
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 892 thousand

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Penn National Gaming - PENN - cls: 61.00 chg: -0.60 stop: n/a

Why PENN continues to slip is a mystery. On June 15th it was announced that the company was being purchased by Fortress Investment Group (FIG) and Centerbridge Partners in an all cash transaction worth $67 a share. The only reason we see that PENN might be falling is based on the action in FIG. Shares of FIG have plunged from an intraday high of $27.70 to $22.30 in the last five days. Yet the deal with PENN is an all-cash transaction so a decline in FIG's stock shouldn't be an issue. We knew this was a high-risk speculative play based on a possible bidding war if another suitor steps into the scenario. That's still a possibility so this may end up being a better entry point to buy calls - just remember we're gambling on "if" another suitor steps up.

Picked on June 17 at $ 62.12
Change since picked: - 1.12
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million

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SanDisk - SNDK - cls: 47.31 change: +0.18 stop: 43.45

SNDK is holding up relatively well and displayed some strength today. We remain bullish but would be cautious about opening new positions here. We have two targets. Our conservative target is the $49.50-50.00 range. Our aggressive target is the $52.50-55.00 range, which might be too optimistic given our time frame. We don't want to hold over the mid July earnings report.

Picked on June 17 at $ 46.40
Change since picked: + 0.91
Earnings Date 07/19/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.6 million

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Valero Energy - VLO - cls: 74.66 chg: -1.28 stop: 72.45

A 2% sell-off in crude oil undermined the energy sector. Shares of VLO lost 1.6% and produced a rather bearish-looking candlestick. Watch for a bounce near $74.00 or the rising 50-dma near $73.00 as a potential entry point. An alternative entry would be to wait for a short-term relative high over $76.50. Our target is the $84.50-85.00 range.

Picked on June 18 at $ 77.55
Change since picked: - 2.89
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 13.2 million
 

Put Updates

Allegheny Tech - ATI - cls: 103.01 chg: -2.69 stop: 112.15

After a lot of volatility over the last couple of weeks we're finally seeing some favorable movement in ATI. The stock broke down under support to a new relative low. Shares look poised to hit our first target in the $100.50-100.00 range soon. Our second, more aggressive target is the $95.50-95.00 range although we may need to adjust this to the 200-dma, which is rising and currently near $94.50. The P&F chart currently points to a $94 target.

Picked on June 12 at $106.70
Change since picked: - 3.69
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.1 million

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Gilead Sciences - GILD - cls: 38.80 chg: +0.08 stop: 41.27

GILD didn't see a lot of movement today even though the company was presenting at an analyst meeting. GILD will be at another conference tomorrow. Sometimes these events can produce headline-moving news or an analyst upgrade or downgrade but there's no way to know beforehand. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our post-split target is $37.62-36.25.

Picked on June 07 at $ 39.95 *split adjusted
Change since picked: - 1.15
Earnings Date 07/18/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.1 million

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Las Vegas Sands - LVS - cls: 73.03 chg: -1.69 stop: 80.26

There was no follow through on yesterday's intraday bounce for LVS. The stock plunged at the open and closed with a 2.2% decline. Readers may want to lower their stops. Our target is the $70.50-70.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower.

Picked on June 17 at $ 76.78
Change since picked: - 3.75
Earnings Date 08/01/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.0 million

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Mettler Toledo - MTD - cls: 95.02 chg: +0.61 stop: 99.11

MTD keeps trying to bounce but investors are selling into the rallies. Today looks like a nice bearish failed rally at the 10-dma and thus a new entry point for puts. Our target is the $90.50-90.00 range. FYI: The P&F chart has reversed into a new triple-bottom breakdown sell signal with an $87 target (was $91).

Picked on June 19 at $ 96.75
Change since picked: - 1.73
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 215 thousand

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QUALCOMM - QCOM - cls: 42.84 change: +0.31 stop: 44.05

We could not find any news to account for QCOM's relative strength today. The stock remains under resistance at its 50-dma and the $44.00 level but we are hesitant to suggest new positions given the lack of weakness. Readers may feel more comfortable waiting for a breakdown under $42.00 or $41.00 before considering new positions. Our target is the $37.00-36.00 range. We do not want to hold over the mid July earnings report.

Picked on June 10 at $ 41.87
Change since picked: + 0.97
Earnings Date 07/18/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 18.0 million

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Weyerhauser - WY - cls: 78.33 chg: -1.65 stop: 82.05

WY confirmed yesterday's bearish breakdown with a 2% sell-off today. There doesn't appear to be any obstacles between current levels and our target in the $75.00-74.00 range. We're going to adjust that target to $75.15-74.00. While the $74.00 level looks like clear support dating back to March 2007 the $75.00 mark might act as round-number, psychological support. The P&F chart is very bearish with a $61 target.

Picked on June 25 at $ 79.49
Change since picked: - 1.16
Earnings Date 07/20/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.1 million
 

Strangle Updates

None
 

Dropped Calls

XTO Energy - XTO - cls: 59.21 chg: -1.28 stop: 58.95

Ouch! The sell-off in XTO over the last week has been very painful. The stock traded multiple times in the $63.50-64.00 range but we were aiming for a rally into the $64.75-67.50 zone. We hope some of our readers took advantage of our constant suggestions to take profits with the stock above $62.00. Today's dip to $58.91 hit our stop loss closing the play. FYI: Our original target was the $62.50-65.00 zone but we got greedy and raised it to $64.75-67.50 after the early June spike higher. We would definitely keep an eye on the $58.00 level and its rising 50-dma for a potential bounce.

Picked on May 27 at $ 57.63
Change since picked: + 1.58
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.2 million
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

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