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Call Updates

Ashland - ASH - cls: 64.02 change: 1.03 stop: 59.95

ASH displayed relative strength on Thursday with a 1.6% gain and on strong volume. The stock managed to breakout over technical resistance at its 100-dma and 200-ema (exponential moving average) in addition to the $64.00 level. The intraday high was $64.29. Our target is the 200-dma so we're aiming for the $64.50 mark. More conservative traders may want to raise their stop loss toward $61.00. We're thinking about raising our target toward the $66-67 range. We would not hold over the late July earnings report.

Picked on June 10 at $ 61.49
Change since picked: 2.53
Earnings Date 07/23/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 657 thousand

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Avery Dennison - AVY - cls: 66.17 chg: -0.20 stop: 64.90

AVY pretty much mirrored the market on Thursday. That means the stock didn't move much and what movement we did see looks closer to a bearish failed rally pattern. That's not the sort of follow through bulls want to see after yesterday's big rebound. More conservative traders may want to wait for a move over $66.50 before considering new positions. The $67.00 level is AVY's next hurdle. Our target is the $69.75-70.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late July earnings report.

Picked on June 11 at $ 66.05
Change since picked: 0.12
Earnings Date 07/24/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 728 thousand

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BP Plc. - BP - close: 71.80 change: 0.85 stop: 67.85

BP continues to show relative strength. The stock rose 1.19%, which out paced the major averages and its peers in the oil sector. If you're looking for a new entry point wait for a pull back near $71.00 or $70.00. The 10-dma near $70 should offer short-term support. Readers might want to consider raising their stop loss. The P&F chart points to a $90 target. Our target is the $74.85-75.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. FYI: We do see some resistance near $73.50.

Picked on June 22 at $ 70.25
Change since picked: 1.55
Earnings Date 07/24/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.5 million

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Chevron Corp. - CVX - close: 84.18 chg: 0.29 stop: 79.90

Crude oil was able to trade up over $70 a barrel intraday and that gave oil stocks a lift. Unfortunately, the rally was fading by the closing bell. CVX did breakout over short-term resistance at $84.00, which is bullish and looks like a new entry point for calls. However, we're suggesting a little bit of caution here given the failing strength this afternoon. Our target is the $89.00-90.00 range.

Picked on June 18 at $ 83.75
Change since picked: 0.43
Earnings Date 07/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 9.1 million

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Deere Co - DE - close: 119.38 change: -2.19 stop: 116.90*new*

Watch out! Lack of follow through on yesterday's bullish bounce and the close under the $120.00 mark today is bearish. The MACD indicator on the daily chart has produced a new sell signal. More conservative traders may want to exit now to cut their losses. DE might find support near its rising 50-dma around $117.25. We're going to be aggressive and lower the stop loss to $116.90. We have two targets. Our first target is the $129.50-130.00 range. Our second, more aggressive target is the $134.00-135.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $152 target.

Picked on June 20 at $123.55
Change since picked: - 4.17
Earnings Date 08/15/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.6 million

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Global SantaFe - GSF - cls: 72.50 chg: 0.00 stop: 68.86*new*

GSF made another intraday rally attempt but it turned into another failed rally under $74.00. We strongly suggest readers consider taking an early exit and lock in a gain right here. We are raising our stop loss to $68.86. Aggressive traders may want to keep their stop loss under the 50-dma near $67.65. We're not suggesting new positions. Our target is the $74.50-75.00 range.

Picked on June 03 at $ 68.86
Change since picked: 3.64
Earnings Date 08/01/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.8 million

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Russell 2000 iShares - IWM - cls: 83.39 chg: -0.16 stop: 81.35

Be careful. The trading in the IWM looks bearish with a failed rally and a new lower high. We're not suggesting new positions. Our target is the $86.50-87.50 range.

Picked on June 24 at $ 82.85
Change since picked: 0.74
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 71.6 million

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Manpower - MAN - cls: 93.76 change: 0.55 stop: 89.90

MAN displayed some relative strength and closed up 0.59% but struggled with the $94 level all day long. More conservative traders can wait for a new relative high before jumping in. Our target is the $99.50-100.00 range. The P&F chart has a triple-top breakout buy signal with a $110 target.

Picked on June 20 at $ 94.15
Change since picked: - 0.39
Earnings Date 07/20/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 829 thousand

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Pacific Ethanol - PEIX - cls: 12.89 chg: 0.29 stop: 11.90

PEIX has moved back into positive territory for us with today's 2.3% gain. Volume came in above average on the rise, which is normally bullish. We're still suggesting bullish positions but more conservative traders may want to wait for a rise past $13.35 or $13.50 before initiating new positions. There is potential resistance near $14.00, the 100-dma and the 200-dma. We're going to aim for the 200-dma, which means we'll use a $15.50-15.75 exit range for now. FYI: We cannot find a future earnings date for PEIX but suspect it will be in August or September.

Picked on June 24 at $ 12.83
Change since picked: 0.06
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 892 thousand

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Penn National Gaming - PENN - cls: 59.89 chg: -0.63 stop: n/a

We don't see any changes from our previous comments on PENN. This is a high-risk speculative play based on a possible bidding war if another suitor steps into the takeover scenario.

Picked on June 17 at $ 62.12
Change since picked: - 1.66
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million

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SanDisk - SNDK - cls: 48.64 change: 0.13 stop: 44.85 *new*

Some positive analyst comments gave SNDK a lift this morning but shares were fading into the closing bell. Please note the new stop loss at $44.85. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. We have two targets. Our conservative target is the $49.50-50.00 range. Our aggressive target is the $52.50-55.00 range, which might be too optimistic given our time frame. We don't want to hold over the mid July earnings report.

Picked on June 17 at $ 46.40
Change since picked: 2.24
Earnings Date 07/19/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.6 million
 

Put Updates

Allegheny Tech - ATI - cls: 105.35 chg: 1.96 stop: 110.15

ATI continued to rebound and rose 1.8% before stalling out under its 10-dma. The stock is also nearing resistance at its trendline of lower highs. A failed rally under $107.50 could be used as a new entry point for puts. Yesterday ATI hit our initial target in the $100.50-100.00 range. Currently we're aiming for our aggressive target in the $95.50-95.00 range.

Picked on June 12 at $106.70
Change since picked: - 1.35
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.1 million

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Gilead Sciences - GILD - cls: 39.59 chg: -0.21 stop: 40.85

GILD produced a failed rally at the $40.00 level today. This could be used as a new entry point for puts but if you're starting new positions we'd use a really tight stop. Our post-split target is $37.62-36.25.

Picked on June 07 at $ 39.95 *split adjusted
Change since picked: - 0.36
Earnings Date 07/18/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.1 million

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Las Vegas Sands - LVS - cls: 74.50 chg: 1.67 stop: 78.05

We warned readers yesterday that LVS' intraday rebound looked like a short-term bullish reversal. The stock continued to bounce today with a 2.2% gain. Shares are still under short-term resistance at the 10-dma but we're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $70.50-70.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower.

Picked on June 17 at $ 76.78
Change since picked: - 2.28
Earnings Date 08/01/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.0 million

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Mettler Toledo - MTD - cls: 95.48 chg: -0.07 stop: 99.11

The oversold bounce in MTD looks like it's starting to run out of steam. This could be a new entry point for puts. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops a bit. Our target is the $90.50-90.00 range. FYI: The P&F chart has reversed into a new triple-bottom breakdown sell signal with an $87 target (was $91).

Picked on June 19 at $ 96.75
Change since picked: - 1.27
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 215 thousand

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QUALCOMM - QCOM - cls: 43.46 change: 0.04 stop: 44.05

QCOM is still trying to bounce but the stock failed multiple times in the $43.75 zone. The big news today was QCOM rejecting BRCM's offer to settle the patent dispute. Again, we're surprised that shares of QCOM are not showing more weakness. Overall we don't see any changes from our previous comments. We're not suggesting new positions at this time.

Picked on June 10 at $ 41.87
Change since picked: 1.59
Earnings Date 07/18/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 18.0 million
 

Strangle Updates

None
 

Dropped Calls

Cleveland Cliffs - CLF - cls: 76.55 chg: 0.02 stop: 74.99

The action in CLF today looks more like a bearish failed rally and not the sort of follow through bulls want to see after yesterday's big intraday reversal higher. It was our strategy to buy calls on a breakout over $80 with a trigger at $80.55. No breakout has occurred so we're dropping the play unopened. We will keep an eye on the stock for a move under $75 or over $80 as potential bearish and bullish entry points, respectively.

Picked on June xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: 0.00
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million
 

Dropped Puts

Weyerhauser - WY - cls: 79.15 chg: 0.46 stop: 82.05

Target achieved. Actually if you look at the session's highs and lows WY hit both our target in the $75.15-74.00 range and our stop loss at $82.05. The stock spiked lower this morning before bouncing back to close in the green. Now it's important to note that we don't trust today's highs and lows. The intraday low at $74.66 and the intraday high at $82.47 both look like bad ticks. If you check an intraday chart we don't see WY trading below $77.25 or above $79.53. However, when a stock produces a bad tick and it hits our stop loss we normally close the play on principal. This is a unique situation where the bad tick happened to hit our target first. If you're still holding puts we would continue to hold them. The bounce began to fail under $80 and it looks like WY will roll over. If you're concerned just lower your stop loss closer to the $80 level, which should be resistance that is bolstered by the 50-dma and 100-dma.

Picked on June 25 at $ 79.49
Change since picked: - 0.34
Earnings Date 07/20/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.1 million
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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