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Call Updates

Avery Dennison - AVY - cls: 67.31 chg: -0.01 stop: 64.90

It was a disappointing Monday for AVY. The stock under performed the market and failed to breakout over last week's high. Overall nothing has changed from our weekend commentary. Readers may want to tighten their stops. AVY's Point & Figure chart recently produced a new buy signal with an $80 target. Our target is the $69.75-70.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late July earnings report.

Picked on June 11 at $ 66.05
Change since picked: 1.27
Earnings Date 07/24/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 728 thousand

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BP Plc. - BP - close: 74.08 change: 0.58 stop: 68.75

BP continues to climb and shares pushed past the $74.00 level on Monday. Oil stocks ignored a pull back in crude oil prices today. However, we want to remind readers that BP looks short-term overbought and due for a dip. A dip back toward $72 and its rising 10-dma would be normal. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Readers may want to consider an early exit right now to lock in a gain. The P&F chart points to a $90 target. Our target is the $74.85-75.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher.

Picked on June 22 at $ 70.25
Change since picked: 3.83
Earnings Date 07/24/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.5 million

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Deere Co - DE - close: 125.82 change: 2.11 stop: 116.90

DE continues to show relative strength. The stock posted a 1.7% gain and set a new all-time high. The move over $125 looks like a new entry point to buy calls. We have two targets. Our first target is the $129.50-130.00 range. Our second, more aggressive target is the $134.00-135.00 range.

Picked on June 20 at $123.55
Change since picked: 2.37
Earnings Date 08/15/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.6 million

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GulfMark - GMRK - cls: 55.39 change: 1.34 stop: 52.45

GMRK turned in a bullish performance. Shares rose 2.4% and broke out past resistance on strong volume. Today's rally is also a bullish breakout from the two-month consolidation pattern, which looks like an inverse (bullish version) head-and-shoulders pattern. We were suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $55.05 so the play is now open. Our target is the $59.50-60.00 range. This is somewhat aggressive because time is growing short. We don't want to hold over the late July earnings report. FYI: In the news today GMRK announced plans to move its listing to the NYSE. The company expects to begin trading on the NYSE around July 20th with a new ticker symbol "GLF".

Picked on July 09 at $ 55.05
Change since picked: 0.34
Earnings Date 07/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 284 thousand

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Russell 2000 iShares - IWM - cls: 85.74 chg: 0.94 stop: 81.35

Monday looks like a bullish session for the IWM with a 1.1% gain and a breakout to a new high. However, if you look at an intraday chart the IWM didn't trade past the $85.05 level and the big rally appears to have occurred just after the closing bell. So there seems to be some price quote errors in the system. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $86.50-87.50 range.

Picked on June 24 at $ 82.85
Change since picked: 2.89
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 71.6 million

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Joy Global - JOYG - cls: 60.94 chg: -0.02 stop: 57.99

We don't see any changes from our weekend comments on JOYG. More aggressive traders may want to jump in now. We are suggesting readers wait. There is some resistance at $62.00 so we're suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $62.05. If triggered our target is the $68.00-70.00 range. Our time frame is six to eight weeks. The Point & Figure chart is forecasting an $81 target.

Picked on July xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: 0.00
Earnings Date 08/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.9 million

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Manpower - MAN - cls: 93.99 change: -0.27 stop: 89.90

We do not see any changes from our weekend comments. MAN is still struggling with resistance at the $95 level and the stock produced another failed-rally type pattern today. We are repeating our previous comments. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops toward $91.00. Meanwhile readers may want to wait for a breakout over $95 before considering new positions. The P&F chart has a triple-top breakout buy signal with a $110 target. Currently our target is the $99.50-100.00 range.

Picked on June 20 at $ 94.15
Change since picked: 0.11
Earnings Date 07/20/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 829 thousand

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Pacific Ethanol - PEIX - cls: 14.86 chg: 0.43 stop: 11.90

PEIX soared another 3% today with volume coming in above average on the gain but shares are still fighting with technical resistance at the 100-dma. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. The stock is up more than 15% and more conservative traders may want to exit early to lock in a gain. Our target is the $15.40-15.60 range. FYI: We cannot find a future earnings date for PEIX but suspect it will be in August or September.

Picked on June 24 at $ 12.83
Change since picked: 2.03
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 892 thousand

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Penn National Gaming - PENN - cls: 60.84 chg: 0.02 stop: n/a

There is no change from our previous comments on PENN. We are suggesting high-risk, speculative call positions on the gamble that a new suitor does show up and offer more than the current buy-out price. Thus far there hasn't been any news and PENN has less than 30 days to find another bidder. Shares of PENN hit some profit taking but found support near $60.00.

Picked on June 17 at $ 62.12
Change since picked: - 1.28
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million

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SanDisk - SNDK - cls: 51.24 change: 2.04 stop: 47.45*new*

SNDK soared more than 4% and broke through resistance at the $50.00 level on rising memory prices. The stock hit new multi-month highs on big volume and hit an intraday high of $51.90. We are raising our stop loss to $47.45. SNDK has already hit our conservative target in the $49.50-50.00 range. We're currently aiming for our aggressive target in the $52.50-55.00 range. We don't want to hold over the mid July earnings report.

Picked on June 17 at $ 46.40
Change since picked: 4.84
Earnings Date 07/19/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.6 million

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Toro Co. - TTC - cls: 60.10 change: 0.25 stop: 57.95

TTC inched back above the $60.00 level and still looks poised to breakout higher. We are suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $60.75. If triggered our target is the $64.95-65.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. The P&F chart points to a $77 target.

Picked on July xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: 0.00
Earnings Date 08/23/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 354 thousand
 

Put Updates

Allegheny Tech - ATI - cls: 107.56 chg: -0.16 stop: 110.15

ATI tried to rally this morning but shares produced another bearish failed rally pattern under resistance at the $110 level. This looks like another entry point to buy puts. However, there are two issues that might make you pause before launching new bearish plays. First is the market. The DJIA and S&P 500 are nearing new highs. If the market breaks out it could inspire more buying in ATI. Second, is Jim Cramer. In tonight's show Cramer defended ATI and said the market was wrong about the recent weakness. It might pay off to wait for a new decline under $106.25 before considering new positions. The stock has already hit our conservative target in the $100.50-100.00 range. We are adjusting our aggressive target to $97.00-96.00 to account for the rising 200-dma, which is likely to be support.

Picked on June 12 at $106.70
Change since picked: - 2.20
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.1 million

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Gilead Sciences - GILD - cls: 39.12 chg: 0.14 stop: 40.15

Positive comments in Barron's magazine over the weekend fueled a gap higher on shares of GILD this morning. The stock opened at $40.00 and traded lower from there. The morning strength may have been enough to produce a new MACD buy signal on the daily chart. More conservative traders may want to exit early. More aggressive traders may want to leave their stop above the 50-dma near $40.60. Our post-split target is $37.62-36.25.

Picked on June 07 at $ 39.95 *split adjusted
Change since picked: - 0.83
Earnings Date 07/18/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.1 million

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Mettler Toledo - MTD - cls: 98.21 chg: 0.50 stop: 99.11

This is not looking good for the bears. MTD posted another 0.5% gain and broke through technical resistance at the 50-dma. Shares look poised to challenge the $99-100 zone soon. Aggressive traders may want to place their stop loss above $100. Considering the bullish market environment the last few days we're considering an early exit to cut our losses. More conservative traders may want to exit now.

Picked on June 19 at $ 96.75
Change since picked: 1.46
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 215 thousand

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QUALCOMM - QCOM - cls: 43.59 change: 0.01 stop: 44.05

There is no change from our previous comments on QCOM. We're not suggesting new positions and more conservative traders may want to exit early now to cut their losses.

Picked on June 10 at $ 41.87
Change since picked: 1.72
Earnings Date 07/18/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 18.0 million
 

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

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Chaparral Steel - CHAP - cls: 74.51 chg: -1.21 stop: n/a

CHAP spiked higher this morning but quickly reversed. Shares ended the day with a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern (bearish reversal). The trade back through $75.00 offered a great entry point for new strangle positions. We are suggesting positions in the $76.00-74.00 range and the closer to $75.00 the better. We're going to play the July options, which expire in two weeks, because we're looking for the quick post-earnings pop. Our suggested options were the July $80 calls (ZHQ-GP) and the July $70 puts (ZHQ-SN). Our estimated cost was $1.60. We will plan to sell if either option hits $3.20 or higher.

Picked on July 08 at $ 75.72
Change since picked: - 1.21
Earnings Date 07/11/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million

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Genentech - DNA - cls: 75.76 change: 0.66 stop: n/a

There is no change from our weekend comments on DNA. We are suggesting strangle positions in the $76.00-74.00 range but the closer to $75.00 the better. We're going to play the July options, which expire in two weeks, because we're looking for the quick post-earnings pop. Earnings are due out on July 11th after the closing bell. We are suggesting the July $80 calls (DWN-GP) and the July $70 puts (DWN-SN). Our estimated cost is $0.45. We will plan to sell if either option hits $0.90 or higher.

Picked on July 08 at $ 75.10
Change since picked: 0.66
Earnings Date 07/11/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.5 million
 

Dropped Calls

Chevron Corp. - CVX - close: 89.50 chg: 1.82 stop: 81.59

Target achieved. CVX was a leader in the oil sector's rally today. The oil giant saw its shares rise another 2% and hit $89.80 intraday. Our target was the $89.00-90.00 range. We'll be watching for another entry point down the road. Right now shares look a bit short-term overbought.

Picked on June 18 at $ 83.75
Change since picked: 5.75
Earnings Date 07/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 9.1 million
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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