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Call Updates

Avery Dennison - AVY - cls: 68.11 chg: 1.44 stop: 65.90 *new*

The widespread market rally fueled a 2.1% gain in AVY. Shares pushed past resistance near $67.00 to hit new three-month highs. We are raising our stop loss to $65.90. Our target is the $69.75-70.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late July earnings report.

Picked on June 11 at $ 66.05
Change since picked: 2.06
Earnings Date 07/24/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 728 thousand

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Deere Co - DE - close: 128.33 change: 3.12 stop: 119.95*new*

The rally in DE continues. Shares rose another 2.49% and closed at a new all-time high. The stock is nearing our first target. We have two targets. Our first target is the $129.50-130.00 range. Our second, more aggressive target is the $134.00-135.00 range. Please note that we are raising the stop loss to $119.95, just under the rising 50-dma. More conservative traders may want to raise their stop loss to breakeven.

Picked on June 20 at $123.55
Change since picked: 4.78
Earnings Date 08/15/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.6 million

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GulfMark - GMRK - cls: 55.96 change: 0.99 stop: 52.45

GMRK rallied to another new high. Volume also improved on the gain. We don't see any real changes from our previous comments. Our target is the $59.50-60.00 range. We don't want to hold over the late July earnings report.

Picked on July 09 at $ 55.05
Change since picked: 0.91
Earnings Date 07/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 284 thousand

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Russell 2000 iShares - IWM - cls: 84.79 chg: 0.96 stop: 81.35

The Russell 2000 rose 1.8% and the IWM ishares that follow the RUT only rose 1.1%. The IWM also managed to close over resistance at the $85.00 level. Our target is the $86.50-87.50 range.

Picked on June 24 at $ 82.85
Change since picked: 1.96
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 71.6 million

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Joy Global - JOYG - cls: 63.15 chg: 0.38 stop: 57.99

JOYG posted another gain but we're actually surprised today's rally wasn't bigger following yesterday's bullish breakout. We would still be considering new call positions here. Our target is the $68.00-70.00 range. Our time frame is six to eight weeks. The Point & Figure chart is forecasting an $81 target.

Picked on July 11 at $ 62.05
Change since picked: 1.10
Earnings Date 08/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.9 million

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Manpower - MAN - cls: 94.52 change: 1.00 stop: 89.90

MAN posted a 1% gain and is still trying to breakout past the $95.00 level. The trend is technically bullish but readers may want to wait for a new high (over $95.30) before jumping in. Plus, readers might want to consider a tighter stop loss near $91.50. Our target is the $99.50-100.00 range.

Picked on June 20 at $ 94.15
Change since picked: 0.37
Earnings Date 07/20/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 829 thousand

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Pacific Ethanol - PEIX - cls: 14.45 chg: -0.11 stop: 11.90

PEIX has been struggling the last couple of days as it trades sideways between $14.00 and the descending 100-dma. We're not suggesting new positions. More conservative traders may want to exit early to lock in a gain. Our target is the $15.40-15.60 range. FYI: We cannot find a future earnings date for PEIX but suspect it will be in August or September.

Picked on June 24 at $ 12.83
Change since picked: 1.62
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 892 thousand

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Penn National Gaming - PENN - cls: 60.10 chg: -0.24 stop: n/a

PENN failed to participate in the market's rally. Investors are still waiting for a second bidder to show up and pay more than $67 a share. We are suggesting high-risk, speculative call positions on the gamble that a new suitor does show up and offer more than the current buy-out price. Thus far there hasn't been any news and PENN has less than 30 days to find another bidder. Shares of PENN hit some profit taking but found support near $60.00.

Picked on June 17 at $ 62.12
Change since picked: - 2.02
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million

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Toro Co. - TTC - cls: 61.29 change: 0.45 stop: 57.95

TTC posted a 0.7% gain but it doesn't look like much follow through on yesterday's big rally. The overall trend remains bullish and we'd still suggest call positions with shares above $60.00. More conservative traders may want to inch up their stop toward Wednesday's low (58.42). Our target is the $64.95-65.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. The P&F chart points to a $77 target.

Picked on July 11 at $ 60.75
Change since picked: 0.54
Earnings Date 08/23/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 354 thousand
 

Put Updates

Goldman Sachs - GS - cls: 219.75 chg: 3.03 stop: 225.81

We are honestly surprised that given today's massive market rally shares of GS did not rally more. The stock rose 1.39% and does look poised to breakout over the $220 level again. Yet financials and brokers were two leading sectors with gains of 2.5% and 2.3%, respectively. GS under performed its peers and the broad-market averages. While bears might take some comfort in this relative weakness we would be cautious here. With the market hitting new highs and M&A deals becoming a daily occurrence we can't imagine GS under performing for very long. Technically the pattern is still bearish and a failed rally under $225 or its 50-dma near $225 could be used as a new entry point for puts. However, we would hesitate to launch new put plays with the market looking this strong.

Picked on July 10 at $217.08
Change since picked: 2.67
Earnings Date 09/12/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.9 million

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Mettler Toledo - MTD - cls: 98.31 chg: 0.41 stop: 99.11

We are also surprised that MTD did not show more relative strength today. Shares continued to trade sideways with a minor pop late in the session. More aggressive traders may want to give MTD more room to move and place their stop above $100. We are leaving our stop loss at $99.11 for now. We would wait for a new drop under $96.50 (near the 10-dma) or under $96.00 before considering new positions. The 100-dma is still a hazard for the bears.

Picked on June 19 at $ 96.75
Change since picked: 1.56
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 215 thousand
 

Strangle Updates

None
 

Dropped Calls

BP Plc. - BP - close: 74.78 change: 0.78 stop: 68.75

Target achieved. The market strength combined with multi-month highs for oil continued to lift the energy stocks. Shares of BP hit an intraday high of $74.87. Our target was the $74.85-75.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher.

Picked on June 22 at $ 70.25
Change since picked: 4.53
Earnings Date 07/24/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.5 million
 

Dropped Puts

Gilead Sciences - GILD - cls: 39.94 chg: 0.22 stop: 40.15

We are giving up on GILD and suggesting an early exit. The stock continues to trade sideways but shares look poised to breakout over resistance near $40.00 and its 50-dma soon.

Picked on June 07 at $ 39.95 *split adjusted
Change since picked: - 0.01
Earnings Date 07/18/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.1 million
 

Dropped Strangles

Genentech - DNA - cls: 75.37 change: -0.56 stop: n/a

DNA reported earnings last night and the results failed to move the stock price. Our plan was to capture any post-earnings surge. Now that it has failed to materialize we're bailing out!
We were suggesting the July $80 calls (DWN-GP) and the July $70 puts (DWN-SN). Our estimated cost was $0.45.

Picked on July 08 at $ 75.10
Change since picked: 0.27
Earnings Date 07/11/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.5 million
 

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