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Call Updates

Avery Dennison - AVY - cls: 68.33 chg: 0.22 stop: 65.90

Shares of AVY still look poised to move higher. The market-wide rally (or short squeeze) on Thursday pushed AVY past resistance to new relative highs. The stock might have some resistance near $69 but it looks like a relatively clear shot from here to our target in the $69.75-70.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late July earnings report, which are still unconfirmed at July 24th.

Suggested Options:
We are not suggesting new positions in AVY at this time.

Picked on June 11 at $ 66.05
Change since picked: 2.28
Earnings Date 07/24/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 728 thousand

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Boeing Co - BA - cls: 101.88 change: 1.10 stop: 98.95

Our new bullish play in BA is now open. Shares of BA rallied to a new all-time high probably thanks to a big order for their Dreamliners. Chile's LAN airlines ordered 32 of BA's 787 Dreamliners on Friday. We wanted to see BA breakout over resistance before buying calls. Our suggested trigger was at $101.55. Now that the play is open our target is the $109.00-110.00 range. The intraday move over $102 has produced a new triple-top breakout buy signal on the P&F chart with a $119 price target. Remember, we do not have a lot of time and plan to exit ahead of the July 25th earnings report.

Suggested Options:
We're suggesting the August strikes.

BUY CALL AUG 100 BA-HT open interest=14127 current ask $4.20
BUY CALL AUG 105 BA-HA open interest= 8428 current ask $1.70

Picked on July 13 at $101.55
Change since picked: 0.33
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.1 million

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Burlington Northern - BNI - cls: 88.68 chg: 0.51 stop: 83.99

We do not see any changes from our Thursday night new-play description. BNI continues to look bullish over $88.00. The Dow Jones Transportation sector index is at new all-time highs, which is a big bullish sign for Dow Theory enthusiasts. Most of BNI's technical indicators have turned positive. If we have a worry it's potential resistance at the 50-dma (near 89.20) and potential resistance at $90.00. Yet if the markets continue to rally we expect BNI to follow. The P&F chart is still bearish but we're aiming for the $94.00-95.00 range. This is somewhat aggressive given our time frame as we plan to exit ahead of the July 24th earnings report.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the August calls but plan to exit ahead of the late July earnings.

BUY CALL AUG 85.00 BNI-HQ open interest=1591 current ask $5.80
BUY CALL AUG 90.00 BNI-HR open interest=3184 current ask $2.90

Picked on July 12 at $ 88.17
Change since picked: 0.51
Earnings Date 07/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.3 million

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Deere Co - DE - close: 131.08 change: 2.75 stop: 119.95

Target achieved! DE continued to rally on Friday. Shares soared another 2.1% and broke through potential round-number resistance at the $130 level. Our first target was the $129.50-130.00 range. Friday's strength was boosted by positive analyst comments about the growth in the construction equipment industry. We remain bullish on DE but we're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our next target is the $134.00-135.00 range. Readers may want to tighten their stops.

Suggested Options:
We're not suggesting new bullish positions in DE at this time.

Picked on June 20 at $123.55
Change since picked: 7.53
Earnings Date 08/15/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.6 million

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FedEx - FDX - cls: 117.25 change: 2.83 stop: 111.85

FDX turned in a strong session and definitely lent some support to the transports. The stock surged to new four-month highs at $119.10 before paring its gains and closing with a 2.47% gain on Friday. Fueling the rally were renewed rumors that FDX was a takeover or leveraged buyout target. We remain bullish on the stock but we're not suggesting new positions at current levels. FDX almost hit our target on Friday morning. We're only aiming for the $119.50-120.00 range. Readers can watch for another dip or bounce above $115 as a potential entry point.

Suggested Options:
If FDX provides another entry point we'd use the August calls.

Picked on July 12 at $114.42
Change since picked: 2.83
Earnings Date 09/20/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million

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GulfMark - GMRK - cls: 57.04 change: 1.08 stop: 53.49 *new*

Energy stocks continue to show strength and GMRK rallied more than 1.9% to another new high. If you are looking for a new entry point we'd watch for a dip into the $55.50-55.00 zone. We're adjusting our stop loss to $53.49. Our target is the $59.50-60.00 range. We don't want to hold over the late July earnings report. FYI: Don't forget that GMRK expects to change symbols when it moves to the NYSE around July 20th.

Suggested Options:
We're not suggesting new positions at this time but if an entry point appears we'd use the August calls.

Picked on July 09 at $ 55.05
Change since picked: 1.99
Earnings Date 07/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 284 thousand

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Russell 2000 iShares - IWM - cls: 84.94 chg: 0.12 stop: 81.35

The markets may be hitting new relative highs but there seems to be some hesitation in the small caps. The Russell 2000 has yet to clear its June 2007 highs. IWM is keeping pace and the iShares are struggling with resistance near $85.00. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $86.50-87.50 range.

Suggested Options:
We're not suggesting new positions in the IWM at this time.

Picked on June 24 at $ 82.85
Change since picked: 2.09
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 71.6 million

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Joy Global - JOYG - cls: 64.02 chg: 0.87 stop: 57.99

JOYG continues to show relative strength. The stock posted another 52-week high and cleared potential resistance at $63.75 dating back to April and May 2006. Most of JOYG's technical indicators are bullish. If you're looking for a new entry point to buy calls we'd watch for a dip towards $62.00. We are adjusting the stop loss to $59.75. Our target is the $68.00-70.00 range. Our time frame is six to eight weeks. The Point & Figure chart is forecasting an $81 target.

Suggested Options:
If JOYG provides another entry point we would suggest the August calls.

Picked on July 11 at $ 62.05
Change since picked: 1.97
Earnings Date 08/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.9 million

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L-3 Comm. - LLL - cls: 99.98 change: -0.17 stop: 97.45

LLL under performed the markets on Friday. However, readers can use a dip near $99.65 or near $99.00 as a new entry point. More conservative traders may want to see a new relative high over $100.60 before considering new positions. Our target is the $104.90-105.00 range. We would aim higher but we don't have a lot of time. We plan to exit ahead of the earnings report on July 26th. The P&F chart points to a $113 target.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the August calls but plan to exit ahead of the July earnings.

BUY CALL AUG 95.00 LLL-HS open interest=123 current ask $6.50
BUY CALL AUG 100.0 LLL-HT open interest=708 current ask $3.10
BUY CALL AUG 105.0 LLL-HA open interest=583 current ask $1.10

Picked on July 12 at $100.15
Change since picked: - 0.17
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 640 thousand

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Pacific Ethanol - PEIX - cls: 14.15 chg: -0.29 stop: 12.83*new*

PEIX has suffered some profit taking the last few days. Shares peaked near round-number resistance at the $15.00 level and began to consolidate back towards $14.00 and its 10-dma. Technically PEIX has broken short-term support at its 10-dma with Friday's decline. However, the $14.00 mark is broken resistance so it should be new support. A bounce from here could be used as a new entry point although if you're starting new positions now you may want to put your stop loss just under $14.00 or maybe $13.50. We are raising our stop loss to breakeven at $12.83. Our target is the $15.40-15.60 range (essentially the 200-dma). FYI: We cannot find a future earnings date for PEIX but suspect it will be in August or September.

Suggested Options:
We're not suggesting new positions but if PEIX provided a new entry point we like the August calls.

Picked on June 24 at $ 12.83
Change since picked: 1.32
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 892 thousand

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Penn National Gaming - PENN - cls: 59.98 chg: -0.12 stop: n/a

We are approaching the last two weeks for this PENN play. The company was given 45 days to solicit a higher offer than the current $67/share buyout price. Given the pull back in PENN it looks like investors are choosing to lock in profits instead of betting on a new suitor showing up. If you're willing to gamble on a new offer coming in over the next two weeks we would stick to the August strikes.

Suggested Options:
We would suggest the August $65 calls currently trading around 30 cents a piece.

Picked on June 17 at $ 62.12
Change since picked: - 2.14
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million

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China Petro - SNP - cls: 115.06 change: -1.20 stop: 112.35

We do not see any changes from our Thursday night new play description for SNP so we're reposting it here:

We are bullish on oil and energy stocks and the Chinese market continues to be red hot so SNP seems like a natural candidate for bullish positions. Shares have been consolidating with a bullish pattern of higher lows suggesting a new breakout higher is coming soon. We're suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $116.55, which isn't that far away. There is potential resistance at $120 but our target is the $124.00-125.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $132 target. FYI: We would qualify this as somewhat aggressive. SNP is an ADR stock so it's prone to gap opens and the technical indicators are looking tired, which suggests the rally could fail at any moment.

Suggested Options:
Our suggested trigger to buy calls is at $116.55. We're suggesting the August calls.

BUY CALL AUG 115 SNP-HC open interest=323 current ask $4.90
BUY CALL AUG 120 SNP-HD open interest=290 current ask $2.80

Picked on July xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: 0.00
Earnings Date 08/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 563 thousand

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Toyota Motor - TM - cls: 125.98 change: -0.32 stop: 123.99

TM failed to see any follow through higher on Thursday's bounce from support near $125 and its 200-dma. That should make bulls cautious. This still looks like a tempting entry point to buy calls near the bottom of its short-term rising channel. However, readers may want to wait for a rise past $126.50 before initiating new positions. We have two targets. Our conservative target is the $129.75-130.00 range. Our aggressive target is the $133.50-135.00 zone. We do not want to hold over the early August earnings report.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the August calls.

BUY CALL AUG 125 TM-HE open interest=131 current ask $4.20
BUY CALL AUG 130 TM-HF open interest=390 current ask $1.90

Picked on July 12 at $126.30
Change since picked: - 0.32
Earnings Date 08/02/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 557 thousand

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Toro Co. - TTC - cls: 61.57 change: 0.28 stop: 57.95

TTC continues to look bullish here. Last week the stock broke out over resistance in the $60.00-60.50 zone and broke out from a multi-week consolidation pattern. Technicals have turned positive again and broken resistance should now act as new support. We would still consider new positions now but a more attractive entry point would be a dip near $61.00 or $60.00. More conservative traders may want to inch up their stop toward Wednesday's low (58.42). Our target is the $64.95-65.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. The P&F chart points to a $77 target.

Suggested Options:
We would suggest the August calls.

Picked on July 11 at $ 60.75
Change since picked: 0.82
Earnings Date 08/23/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 354 thousand

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United States Steel - X - cls: 116.10 chg: 1.69 stop: 109.49

Thankfully we did not have to wait very long for X to hit our trigger and open the play. Shares broke through resistance near $115 on Friday and hit our trigger at $115.51. Volume was a bit light on the move but we're not going to complain. Short-term technicals are turning bullish again. Economic growth and constant M&A activity should keep the bulls in control with X. There is potential resistance near $120 but our target is the $124.00-125.00 range. We don't have much time. X is due to report earnings on July 24th. Given our time frame this should be considered a more aggressive play.

Suggested Options:
We like the August strikes. (Note - check your symbols. Normally the AUG 120 call should be -HD but the CBOE has it as -HU)

BUY CALL AUG 110 X-HB open interest=762 current ask $9.50
BUY CALL AUG 115 X-HC open interest=560 current ask $6.60
BUY CALL AUG 120 X-HU open interest=720 current ask $4.40

Picked on July 13 at $115.51
Change since picked: 0.59
Earnings Date 07/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.4 million
 

Put Updates

Goldman Sachs - GS - cls: 222.18 chg: 1.89 stop: 225.26*new*

We are growing more concerned about GS as a bearish candidate. After speaking with Jim (this weekend's market wrap author) on Friday we are concerned that earnings expectations for financials are so low that the sector could see an upside surprise, which would fuel the rally. If the financials rally then GS is almost guaranteed to follow them higher. For now the stock is trading under a bearish trend of lower highs and it still has resistance at the 50-dma near $225.00. We are going to leave GS on the newsletter as a bearish play for now but we're not suggesting new positions. The trendline of support on the weekly chart, combined with a lack of follow through on last Tuesday's decline, makes us nervous. More conservative traders may want to bail out now and cut their losses. Our target is the simple 200-dma near $207. We are inching the stop loss down to $225.26.

Suggested Options:
We are not suggesting new put positions in GS at this time.

Picked on July 10 at $217.08
Change since picked: 5.10
Earnings Date 09/12/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.9 million

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Mettler Toledo - MTD - cls: 98.51 chg: 0.20 stop: 99.11

There is no change from our previous comments on MTD. The stock continues to inch higher and came within 12 cents of hitting our stop loss on Friday. If the markets continue to show strength on Monday we would expect MTD to stop us out. We're not suggesting new positions at this time and more conservative traders may want to exit early!

Suggested Options:
We're not suggesting new positions on MTD at this time.

Picked on June 19 at $ 96.75
Change since picked: 1.76
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 215 thousand
 

Strangle Updates

None
 

Dropped Calls

Manpower - MAN - cls: 94.60 change: 0.08 stop: 89.90

MAN has been a disappointment. The stock has gone nowhere and the lack of movement just kills any option premium. We only have three days left before MAN is supposed to report earnings on the morning of July 19th. It is very possible that MAN will continue to trade sideways up into its earnings report. Therefore we are dropping MAN as a directional call play and adding it as a strangle play. Check the new play section for details.

Picked on June 20 at $ 94.15
Change since picked: 0.45
Earnings Date 07/20/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 829 thousand
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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