Option Investor
Play Updates

In Play Updates and Reviews

HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version

Call Updates

Avery Dennison - AVY - cls: 67.85 chg: -0.48 stop: 65.90

AVY gave into market weakness on Monday and slipped 0.7%. We don't see any significant changes from our previous comments. Broken resistance near $67.50 and $67.00 should be short-term support. Our target is the $69.75-70.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late July earnings report, which are still unconfirmed at July 24th.

Picked on June 11 at $ 66.05
Change since picked: + 1.80
Earnings Date 07/24/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 728 thousand

---

Boeing Co - BA - cls: 102.07 change: +0.19 stop: 98.95

BA displayed relative strength with another gain on Monday. Traders jumped in to buy the dip near $101.00 this afternoon. We remain bullish and would still consider new positions now although if the markets see more profit taking then patient traders might get an entry point in BA near $100. Our target is the $109.00-110.00 range. The intraday move over $102 has produced a new triple-top breakout buy signal on the P&F chart with a $119 price target. Remember, we do not have a lot of time and plan to exit ahead of the July 25th earnings report.

Picked on July 13 at $101.55
Change since picked: + 0.52
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.1 million

---

Burlington Northern - BNI - cls: 89.56 chg: +0.88 stop: 83.99

The railroad sector was the best performing industry group today. The Dow Jones Railroad index rose 1.1% and broke through potential resistance at the 500 level. Shares of BNI followed with a 0.99% gain and a bullish breakout over technical resistance at the 50-dma. We would still consider new positions now but odds look good that BNI will give us another dip back toward $88.00-88.50 before moving higher. Use the dip as a new entry point. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. The P&F chart is still bearish but we're aiming for the $94.00-95.00 range. This is somewhat aggressive given our time frame as we plan to exit ahead of the July 24th earnings report.

Picked on July 12 at $ 88.17
Change since picked: + 1.39
Earnings Date 07/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.3 million

---

Deere Co - DE - close: 131.60 change: +0.52 stop: 119.95

Shares of DE and rival CAT continue to rally. CAT looks short-term overbought and a pull back in CAT could slow down the rally in DE. We don't see any changes from our weekend comments. Our first target was the $129.50-130.00 range. Conservative traders will want to strongly consider an exit right here. We remain bullish on DE but we're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our next target is the $134.00-135.00 range. Readers may want to tighten their stops.

Picked on June 20 at $123.55
Change since picked: + 8.05
Earnings Date 08/15/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.6 million

---

FedEx - FDX - cls: 115.64 change: -1.61 stop: 111.85

FDX suffered some profit taking following Friday's big gains. Traders bought the afternoon dip near $115 and the move looks like a new entry point but we're not convinced the pull back is over. FDX may dip to $115 again or head toward $114. We would wait for signs of a bounce before considering new positions. We are aiming for the $119.50-120.00 range.

Picked on July 12 at $114.42
Change since picked: + 1.22
Earnings Date 09/20/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million

---

GulfMark - GMRK - cls: 54.85 change: -2.19 stop: 53.49

Oil and energy stocks surprisingly hit some profit taking even though crude oil futures remain high. Shares of GMRK erased all of our unrealized gains with a 3.8% correction. In spite of the pull back GMRK continues to look bullish north of $54.00 and its 10-dma although we'd wait for a bounce before considering new call positions. Our target is the $59.50-60.00 range. We don't want to hold over the late July earnings report. FYI: Don't forget that GMRK expects to change symbols when it moves to the NYSE around July 20th.

Picked on July 09 at $ 55.05
Change since picked: - 0.20
Earnings Date 07/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 284 thousand

---

GlobalSantaFe - GSF - cls: 72.07 change: -0.98 stop: 69.90

GSF failed to avoid the pull back in oil stocks. Shares of GSF slipped 1.3% but continue to find some support near the $72.00 level. We remain bullish although patient traders may want to wait for a dip toward $71.00 or $70.00 before jumping in. Our target is the $78.00-80.00 range. We do not want to hold over the early August earnings report. The P&F chart is bullish with an $87 target.

Picked on July 15 at $ 73.05
Change since picked: - 0.98
Earnings Date 08/02/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.8 million

---

Helmerich Payne - HP - cls: 35.58 chg: -0.72 stop: 33.95

Monday proved to be an ugly session for HP. We suggested that readers could wait for a dip toward $35.00 so the pull back may not be over yet. However, what concerns us is today's bearish engulfing candlestick pattern, which tends to act as a one-day bearish reversal. Wait for signs of a bounce before initiating new positions. An alternative entry point would be to wait for a new relative high over $36.60. HP does appear to have long-term resistance near $40.00 so we're setting our target in the $39.85-40.00 range.

Picked on July 15 at $ 36.30
Change since picked: - 0.72
Earnings Date 08/01/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 923 thousand

---

Russell 2000 iShares - IWM - cls: 84.46 chg: -0.48 stop: 81.35

We don't see any changes from our previous comments on IWM. The Russell and the iShares continue to struggle with resistance. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $86.50-87.50 range.

Picked on June 24 at $ 82.85
Change since picked: + 1.61
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 71.6 million

---

Joy Global - JOYG - cls: 64.34 chg: +0.32 stop: 59.75

JOYG displayed relative strength with another new high on Monday. The stock hit $65.50 before paring its gains. A dip back toward $63.00 would not surprise us here. Our target is the $68.00-70.00 range. The Point & Figure chart is forecasting an $81 target.

Picked on July 11 at $ 62.05
Change since picked: + 2.29
Earnings Date 08/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.9 million

---

L-3 Comm. - LLL - cls: 99.87 change: -0.11 stop: 97.45

LLL is still hugging the $100 level. Most of the market's sector indices turned lower but LLL only lost 11 cents, which might be seen as relative strength. We suggested that a dip near $99.65 or $99.00 could be used as a new entry point. Today's low was $99.65. More conservative traders may want to see a new relative high over $100.60 before considering new positions. Our target is the $104.90-105.00 range. We would aim higher but we don't have a lot of time. We plan to exit ahead of the earnings report on July 26th. The P&F chart points to a $113 target.

Picked on July 12 at $100.15
Change since picked: - 0.28
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 640 thousand

---

MAGNA Intl. - MGA - close: 96.89 chg: +1.49 stop: 91.89

The rally in MGA continued on Monday. The stock rose another 1.5% and closed at another all-time high. Our target is the $99.50-100.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $110 target.

Picked on July 15 at $ 95.40
Change since picked: + 1.49
Earnings Date 08/08/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 719 thousand

---

PACCAR - PCAR - close: 94.15 change: +0.38 stop: 89.95

PCAR also hit a new all-time high (95.20) but gave back a majority of the session's gains. We remain bullish but traders may want to wait for a dip in the $92.00-92.50 zone before considering new positions. This is somewhat aggressive because we don't have a lot of time. We plan to exit ahead of the July 25th (unconfirmed) earnings report. Our target is the $99.50-100.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $109 target.

Picked on July 15 at $ 93.77
Change since picked: + 0.38
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million

---

Pacific Ethanol - PEIX - cls: 14.00 chg: -0.15 stop: 12.83

PEIX continues to see profit taking and is now flirting with a breakdown under the $14.00 level. A bounce from here could be used as a new entry point but if you're launching new positions we'd suggest a much tighter stop loss. Our target is the $15.40-15.60 range (essentially the 200-dma). FYI: We cannot find a future earnings date for PEIX but suspect it will be in August or September.

Picked on June 24 at $ 12.83
Change since picked: + 1.17
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 892 thousand

---

Penn National Gaming - PENN - cls: 59.71 chg: -0.27 stop: n/a

There is no change from our weekend comments on PENN. We are approaching the last two weeks for this PENN play. The company was given 45 days to solicit a higher offer than the current $67/share buyout price. Given the pull back in PENN it looks like investors are choosing to lock in profits instead of betting on a new suitor showing up. If you're willing to gamble on a new offer coming in over the next two weeks we would stick to the August strikes.

Picked on June 17 at $ 62.12
Change since picked: - 2.41
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million

---

China Petro - SNP - cls: 112.94 change: -2.12 stop: 112.35

Shares of SNP have broke down from their ten-day trading range. This is short-term negative but we'd expect a bounce near the $110 level. Aggressive traders may want to buy calls on a bounce near $110. We're still waiting for a breakout with a trigger at $116.55 although we may re-evaluate if support near $110 holds. There is potential resistance at $120 but our target is the $124.00-125.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $132 target. FYI: We would qualify this as somewhat aggressive. SNP is an ADR stock so it's prone to gap opens and the technical indicators are looking tired.

Picked on July xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 08/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 563 thousand

---

Toyota Motor - TM - cls: 125.84 change: -0.14 stop: 123.99

Overall we remain bullish on TM and the picture hasn't changed much in the last couple of days. Shares continue to consolidate sideways above what should be support at $125 and its rising 200-dma. We would still suggest call positions now but readers may want to wait for a rise past $126.50 before initiating new positions. We have two targets. Our conservative target is the $129.75-130.00 range. Our aggressive target is the $133.50-135.00 zone. We do not want to hold over the early August earnings report.

Picked on July 12 at $126.30
Change since picked: - 0.46
Earnings Date 08/02/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 557 thousand

---

Toro Co. - TTC - cls: 62.21 change: +0.64 stop: 57.95

Warning! TTC out performed the markets today with a 1% gain but the trading looks bearish. The stock hit $63.69 and gave back most of its gains. This looks like a bearish failed rally pattern. We would expect a dip back toward $61.00 and maybe the $60.00 level. Wait for signs of a bounce before considering new positions. More conservative traders may want to inch up their stop toward Wednesday's low (58.42). Our target is the $64.95-65.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. The P&F chart points to a $77 target.

Picked on July 11 at $ 60.75
Change since picked: + 1.46
Earnings Date 08/23/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 354 thousand

---

United States Steel - X - cls: 114.47 chg: -1.63 stop: 109.49

Shares of X gave back almost all of Friday's gains yet today's move looks like a new entry point to buy calls. Traders were buying the dip this afternoon. If you're feeling cautious then wait for a new rise past $115.00 or a new relative high over $116.40. There is potential resistance near $120 but our target is the $124.00-125.00 range. We don't have much time. X is due to report earnings on July 24th. Given our time frame this should be considered a more aggressive play.

Picked on July 13 at $115.51
Change since picked: - 1.04
Earnings Date 07/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.4 million

---

XTO Energy - XTO - close: 59.34 change: -1.22 stop: 58.45

Monday turned out to be a poor session for the oil and energy stocks. We can't find the catalyst behind today's profit taking. It's our expectation for oil and energy stocks to continue to climb for the next two or three weeks. It's then, in the first half of August, do we expect oil to see a bearish reversal and a seasonal correction lower. What is disturbing about XTO's performance today is the very clear bearish engulfing (reversal) pattern. If you open positions this morning you may want to tighten your stop or bail out now. Technically a rebound from here, near its 50-dma, would be a new entry point but it might be better to wait for a new rally past $61.00 before buying calls. Our short-term target is the $64.85-65.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher but remember our time constraints. The P&F chart is bullish with a $73 target.

Picked on July 15 at $ 60.56
Change since picked: - 1.22
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.8 million
 

Put Updates

Goldman Sachs - GS - cls: 220.40 chg: -1.78 stop: 225.26

Market pundits were blaming weakness in the financials and renewed subprime worries for today's performance. GS lost 0.8% and short-term technicals continue to look bearish for the stock. More aggressive traders may want to consider buying puts if GS trades under $219.40. However, keep in mind that rival Merrill Lynch (MER) is due to report earnings tomorrow morning before the opening bell. Wall Street expects MER to turned in profits of $2.01 a share. This industry consistently beats the earnings estimates but has a history of seeing their stocks being sold on the news. A little "sell the news" action would certainly help the bears. We reiterate our defensive posture with GS at this time. Our target is the simple 200-dma near $207.

Picked on July 10 at $217.08
Change since picked: + 3.32
Earnings Date 09/12/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.9 million
 

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

---

Advanced Micro - AMD - cls: 15.72 chg: +0.29 stop: n/a

Tomorrow is our last day to initiate strangle positions in AMD. We want to launch them before rival Intel (INTC) reports earnings tomorrow night. INTC's news should produce a big move in AMD. AMD actually reports earnings on Thursday, which could provide additional volatility. We're suggesting the August options with the August $16 call (AMD-HQ) and the August $15 put (AMD-TC). Our estimated cost was $1.18. We want to sell if either option hits $1.85 or higher. Aggressive traders could aim for $2.40.

Picked on July 15 at $ 15.43
Change since picked: + 0.29
Earnings Date 07/19/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 26.1 million

---

Intel - INTC - cls: 25.95 change: -0.02 stop: n/a

Shares of INTC traded sideways as investors wait for the company's earnings report due out tomorrow night. Tomorrow is our last day to open strangle positions ahead of the report. We were suggesting the August $27.50 call (INQ-HY) and the August $25.00 put (INQ-TE). Our estimated cost was $0.96. We want to sell if either option hits $1.65 or higher. FYI: You will want to try and keep your investment amounts relatively even on both sides of the strangle to keep the strategy neutral.

Picked on July 15 at $ 25.97
Change since picked: - 0.02
Earnings Date 07/17/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 60.3 million

---

Manpower - MAN - close: 94.26 chg: -0.34 stop: n/a

There is no change from our weekend play description for our strangle play on MAN. We're suggesting an entry in the $94.00-96.00 range and the closer to $95.00 the better. We only have tomorrow and Wednesday to open positions. MAN reports earnings on Thursday morning. We were suggesting the August $100 call (MAN-HT) and the August $90 put (MAN-TR). Our estimated cost was $3.35. We want to sell if either option hits $5.75 or higher. FYI: You will want to try and keep your investment amounts relatively even on both sides of the strangle to keep the strategy neutral.

Picked on July 15 at $ 94.60
Change since picked: - 0.34
Earnings Date 07/19/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 636 thousand

---

MGIC Invest. - MTG - close: 56.75 change: -0.23 stop: n/a

There is no change from our weekend new play description for MTG. Tomorrow and Wednesday are our last two days to open positions ahead of the company's earnings report. MTG reports on Thursday morning. The $56.00-58.00 range works for entry points but the closer to $57.50 the better. We were suggesting the August $60 call (MTG-HL) and the August $55.00 put (MTG-TK). Our estimated cost was $3.10. We want to sell if either option hits $5.95 or higher. FYI: You will want to try and keep your investment amounts relatively even on both sides of the strangle to keep the strategy neutral.

Picked on July 15 at $ 56.98
Change since picked: - 0.23
Earnings Date 07/19/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.8 million
 

Dropped Calls

None
 

Dropped Puts

Mettler Toledo - MTD - cls: 99.00 chg: +0.49 stop: 99.11

MTD hit our stop loss at $99.11 today. The stock has been slowly creeping higher since traders bought the dip at its 100-dma back in June. There is potential resistance at $100 and additional resistance closer to $102. We'd keep an eye on it as a nears either level.

Picked on June 19 at $ 96.75
Change since picked: + 2.25
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 215 thousand
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

Play Update Archives