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Call Updates

Avery Dennison - AVY - cls: 68.09 chg: 0.24 stop: 65.90

AVY managed to hit a new relative high today (68.78) but gave most of it back in what looks like a bearish failed rally pattern. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. The stock looks poised to dip back toward the $67.50-67.00 zone. Our target is the $69.75-70.00 range. We do not want to hold over the July 24th earnings report.

Picked on June 11 at $ 66.05
Change since picked: 2.04
Earnings Date 07/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 728 thousand

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Boeing Co - BA - cls: 102.05 change: -0.02 stop: 98.95

BA hit another new high, this time at $102.73, but shares eventually turned south and closed just fractionally in the red. The short-term trend is still up but we're expecting a dip toward $101 and probably the $100 level. Our target is the $109.00-110.00 range. Remember, we do not have a lot of time and plan to exit ahead of the July 25th earnings report.

Picked on July 13 at $101.55
Change since picked: 0.50
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.1 million

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Burlington Northern - BNI - cls: 90.60 chg: 1.04 stop: 86.99*new*

The railroad sector continues to show strength although today's performance in the Dow Jones Railroad index looks like a failed rally at resistance. BNI performed better than most of its peers and broke through the $90.00 level. Yet if the sector hits some profit taking soon we do expect BNI to follow suit. Traders could use a dip toward the 50-dma (near 89.20) or back toward the $88 level as a new entry point but keep in mind our time frame. We want to exit ahead of earnings. Please note that we're adjusting the stop loss to $86.99. Our target is the $94.00-95.00 range. This is somewhat aggressive given our time frame as we plan to exit ahead of the July 24th earnings report.

Picked on July 12 at $ 88.17
Change since picked: 2.43
Earnings Date 07/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.3 million

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Deere Co - DE - close: 130.90 change: -0.70 stop: 123.55 *new*

DE suffered some minor profit taking on Tuesday but the stock is short-term overbought and could probably stand a bigger pull back. We are repeating our previous comments that readers may want to lock in a profit right here. Our first target was the $129.50-130.00 range. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our next target is the $134.00-135.00 range. We are adjusting the stop loss to $123.55.

Picked on June 20 at $123.55
Change since picked: 7.35
Earnings Date 08/15/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.6 million

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FedEx - FDX - cls: 116.42 change: 0.78 stop: 111.85

FDX bounced on Tuesday but the stock struggled to get past the $117.25 level multiple times. We remain bullish on the stock but we're not suggesting new positions at this level. We are aiming for the $119.50-120.00 range.

Picked on July 12 at $114.42
Change since picked: 2.00
Earnings Date 09/20/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million

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GulfMark - GMRK - cls: 54.63 change: -0.22 stop: 53.49

Oil and energy stocks continued to see profit taking on Tuesday. Shares of GMRK dipped to $53.72 before bouncing. We were expecting the $54.00 level to offer support. Another rebound over today's high (55.86) could be used as a new entry point. Our target is the $59.50-60.00 range. We don't want to hold over the late July earnings report. FYI: Don't forget that GMRK expects to change symbols when it moves to the NYSE around July 20th.

Picked on July 09 at $ 55.05
Change since picked: - 0.42
Earnings Date 07/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 284 thousand

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GlobalSantaFe - GSF - cls: 71.70 change: -0.37 stop: 69.90

The short-term technicals for GSF continue to deteriorate and we're starting to see some sell signals. Volume on today's decline was slightly above average and higher than what we've seen the last few weeks. We would wait for a very clear bounce near the $70.00 level or a new move over the 10-dma (near 73.50) before considering new positions. Our target is the $78.00-80.00 range. We do not want to hold over the early August earnings report. The P&F chart is bullish with an $87 target.

Picked on July 15 at $ 73.05
Change since picked: - 1.35
Earnings Date 08/02/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.8 million

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Helmerich Payne - HP - cls: 35.24 chg: -0.34 stop: 33.95

HP is another oil service stock that is suffering some profit taking. A bounce near $35 or $34 (and its 50-dma) can be used as a new entry point. An alternative entry point would be to wait for a new relative high over $36.60. HP does appear to have long-term resistance near $40.00 so we're setting our target in the $39.85-40.00 range.

Picked on July 15 at $ 36.30
Change since picked: - 1.06
Earnings Date 08/01/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 923 thousand

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Russell 2000 iShares - IWM - cls: 84.54 chg: 0.06 stop: 81.35

We don't see any changes from our previous comments on IWM. The Russell and the iShares continue to struggle with resistance near 856.00 and $85.00, respectively. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $86.50-87.50 range.

Picked on June 24 at $ 82.85
Change since picked: 1.67
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 71.6 million

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Joy Global - JOYG - cls: 62.99 chg: 1.35 stop: 59.75

We warned readers yesterday that JOYG might dip toward $63.00. It did pull back today (-2%) and now the question is where will it bounce. The $62.00 level, as broken resistance, should be new support. Then there is the $60.00 level, which should offer round-number, psychological support. Our target is the $68.00-70.00 range. The Point & Figure chart is forecasting an $81 target.

Picked on July 11 at $ 62.05
Change since picked: 0.94
Earnings Date 08/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.9 million

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L-3 Comm. - LLL - cls: 100.52 change: 0.65 stop: 97.45

LLL managed to hit and close at a new all-time high and shares did so on strong volume, which is normally a bullish sign. This move looks like a new entry point to buy calls. Our target is the $104.90-105.00 range. We would aim higher but we don't have a lot of time. We plan to exit ahead of the earnings report on July 26th. The P&F chart points to a $113 target.

Picked on July 12 at $100.15
Change since picked: 0.37
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 640 thousand

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MAGNA Intl. - MGA - close: 95.88 chg: -1.01 stop: 91.89

MGA hits some profit taking and slips just over 1%. Watch for a bounce near $95.00 or the $94.00 level as a new entry point to buy calls. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. Broken resistance near $94.00 should be new support. Our target is the $99.50-100.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $110 target.

Picked on July 15 at $ 95.40
Change since picked: 0.48
Earnings Date 08/08/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 719 thousand

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PACCAR - PCAR - close: 94.56 change: 0.41 stop: 89.95

PCAR is still creeping higher and managed to post its fourth gain in a row. We remain bullish but traders may want to wait for a dip in the $92.00-92.50 zone before considering new positions. This is somewhat aggressive because we don't have a lot of time. We plan to exit ahead of the July 25th (unconfirmed) earnings report. Our target is the $99.50-100.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $109 target.

Picked on July 15 at $ 93.77
Change since picked: 0.79
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million

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Pacific Ethanol - PEIX - cls: 13.92 chg: -0.08 stop: 12.83

PEIX and the rest of the ethanol-related stocks continue to under perform. The stock closed under what should have been support at the $14.00 level. More conservative traders may want to exit early right here to lock in some sort of gain (or minimize any losses). We're not suggesting new positions. PEIX looks like it might have support at the 50-dma near $13.70 or the $13.50 level. Our target is the $15.40-15.60 range (essentially the 200-dma). FYI: We cannot find a future earnings date for PEIX but suspect it will be in August or September.

Picked on June 24 at $ 12.83
Change since picked: 1.09
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 892 thousand

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Penn National Gaming - PENN - cls: 59.81 chg: 0.10 stop: n/a

There is no change from our weekend comments on PENN. We are approaching the last two weeks for this PENN play. The company was given 45 days to solicit a higher offer than the current $67/share buyout price. Given the pull back in PENN it looks like investors are choosing to lock in profits instead of betting on a new suitor showing up. If you're willing to gamble on a new offer coming in over the next two weeks we would stick to the August strikes.

Picked on June 17 at $ 62.12
Change since picked: - 2.31
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million

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China Petro - SNP - cls: 110.95 change: -1.99 stop: 112.35

The Chinese markets are seeing a lot of volatility. Yesterday the Shanghai index was down 2%, today it was up 1.9%. Yet shares of SNP continue to see profit taking, at least those shares traded here in the U.S. We are still on the sidelines waiting for a breakout over $116.00. Our suggested trigger is the $116.55 mark. However, we told readers yesterday to keep a close eye on the $110 level, which should be support. Aggressive traders might want to buy a bounce near $110 with a very tight stop loss. Our target is the $124.00-125.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $132 target. FYI: We would qualify this as somewhat aggressive. SNP is an ADR stock so it's prone to gap opens and the technical indicators are looking tired.

Picked on July xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: 0.00
Earnings Date 08/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 563 thousand

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Toro Co. - TTC - cls: 61.86 change: -0.35 stop: 57.95

We are surprised that TTC didn't see a bigger pull back today. The stock continues to look poised for profit taking after Monday's bearish failed rally pattern. We would expect a dip back toward $61.00 and maybe the $60.00 level. Wait for signs of a bounce before considering new positions. More conservative traders may want to inch up their stop toward Wednesday's low (58.42). Our target is the $64.95-65.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. The P&F chart points to a $77 target.

Picked on July 11 at $ 60.75
Change since picked: 1.11
Earnings Date 08/23/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 354 thousand

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United States Steel - X - cls: 113.53 chg: -0.94 stop: 109.49

X didn't do much today. The stock continued to consolidate sideways. We're suggesting readers wait for a rise past $115 or a new relative high over $116.40 before initiating new positions but nimble traders may want to try and jump in around $112.50. There is potential resistance near $120 but our target is the $124.00-125.00 range. We don't have much time. X is due to report earnings on July 24th. Given our time frame this should be considered a more aggressive play. FYI: In the news today there were unconfirmed reports that X was considering an acquisition of Stelco, a Canadian steel company.

Picked on July 13 at $115.51
Change since picked: - 1.98
Earnings Date 07/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.4 million

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XTO Energy - XTO - close: 59.56 change: 0.22 stop: 58.45

We have good news and bad news with XTO. The good news is that there was no follow through lower on yesterday's big bearish reversal pattern. The bad news is that XTO tried to rebound twice and both times failed to hold much over the $60 level. We are suggesting readers look for a move over $60.50 or over $61.00 before considering new positions. Our short-term target is the $64.85-65.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher but remember our time constraints. We want to exit ahead of earnings. The P&F chart is bullish with a $73 target.

Picked on July 15 at $ 60.56
Change since picked: - 1.00
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.8 million
 

Put Updates

Goldman Sachs - GS - cls: 219.40 chg: -1.00 stop: 225.26

As expected Merrill Lynch (MER) beat estimates but then management issued some bearish comments about the sub-prime market and how it might impact business. This threw a wet blanket over the broker-dealer's attempt at a rebound. Shares of GS turned lower and the drop under $220 (actually 219.50) looks like a new entry point to buy puts! Our target is the simple 200-dma near $207.

Picked on July 10 at $217.08
Change since picked: 2.32
Earnings Date 09/12/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.9 million
 

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

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Advanced Micro - AMD - cls: 15.84 chg: 0.12 stop: n/a

AMD continued to churn sideways under resistance at the $16.00 level as investors waited to hear Intel's earnings report. Intel did report tonight and the results were inline but gross margins were lower than expected. This news has both INTC and AMD trading lower after hours. Unfortunately, we were expecting a bigger reaction in the stock price. INTC is trading near $25 and AMD is trading near $15.40 in after hours. At this time we are not suggesting new strangle positions. The August options we suggested were the the August $16 call (AMD-HQ) and the August $15 put (AMD-TC). Our estimated cost was $1.18. We want to sell if either option hits $1.85 or higher. Aggressive traders could aim for $2.40.

Picked on July 15 at $ 15.43
Change since picked: 0.41
Earnings Date 07/19/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 26.1 million

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Intel - INTC - cls: 26.33 change: 0.38 stop: n/a

INTC crept higher ahead of its earnings report. The company announced after the closing bell. Results were inline but gross margins were under expectations. This news had shares of INTC trading lower but only around $25.00 in after hours markets. We were expecting a much bigger move. We are no longer suggesting new strangle positions. The August options we suggested were the August $27.50 call (INQ-HY) and the August $25.00 put (INQ-TE). Our estimated cost was $0.96. We want to sell if either option hits $1.65 or higher.

Picked on July 15 at $ 25.97
Change since picked: 0.36
Earnings Date 07/17/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 60.3 million

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Manpower - MAN - close: 95.05 chg: 0.79 stop: n/a

MAN spiked to a new high today. An analyst upgrade to an "over weight" sent shares of MAN to $97.28. The stock gave back most of its gains. The move near $95.00 has provided a nice entry point for new strangle positions. Tomorrow is our last day to open new strangles. MAN reports earnings on Thursday morning. We were suggesting the August $100 call (MAN-HT) and the August $90 put (MAN-TR). Our estimated cost was $3.35. We want to sell if either option hits $5.75 or higher. FYI: You will want to try and keep your investment amounts relatively even on both sides of the strangle to keep the strategy neutral.

Picked on July 15 at $ 94.60
Change since picked: 0.45
Earnings Date 07/19/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 636 thousand

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MGIC Invest. - MTG - close: 56.61 change: -0.14 stop: n/a

The sideways consolidation in MTG is narrowing as investors wait for the company's earnings report. Tomorrow is our last day to open positions. MTG reports on Thursday morning. The $56.00-58.00 range works for entry points but the closer to $57.50 the better. We were suggesting the August $60 call (MTG-HL) and the August $55.00 put (MTG-TK). Our estimated cost was $3.10. We want to sell if either option hits $5.95 or higher. FYI: You will want to try and keep your investment amounts relatively even on both sides of the strangle to keep the strategy neutral.

Picked on July 15 at $ 56.98
Change since picked: - 0.37
Earnings Date 07/19/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.8 million
 

Dropped Calls

Toyota Motor - TM - cls: 123.97 change: -1.87 stop: 123.99

TM hit our stop loss this morning. Japanese markets were lower as investors reacted to a massive earthquake that hit the region. The U.S. traded shares of TM gapped down to open at $124.00 and dipped to $123.70. This is a clear technical breakdown under support near $125, the simple 200-dma, and the three-month trendline of higher lows.

Picked on July 12 at $126.30
Change since picked: - 2.33
Earnings Date 08/02/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 557 thousand
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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