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Call Updates

Avery Dennison - AVY - cls: 67.74 chg: -0.35 stop: 65.90

We are quickly running out of time with AVY. The company is due to report earnings on the morning of July 24th. That gives us three more trading days. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops toward $67.00. Our target is the $69.75-70.00 range. We do not want to hold over the July 24th earnings report.

Picked on June 11 at $ 66.05
Change since picked: + 1.71
Earnings Date 07/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 728 thousand

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Boeing Co - BA - cls: 101.82 change: -0.23 stop: 99.75 *new*

BA bounced near $101 midday and the afternoon rebound looks like a new entry point to buy calls. However, we are running out of time. BA is due to report earnings on the morning of July 25th. We don't want to hold over the report no matter how good we think it is. That only gives us four more days. We're inching up our stop loss to $99.75, which is under round-number support at $100 and technical support at the 10-dma. Our target is the $109.00-110.00 range.

Picked on July 13 at $101.55
Change since picked: + 0.27
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.1 million

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Deere Co - DE - close: 130.70 change: -0.20 stop: 123.55

DE weathered the profit-taking pretty well today. The stock bounced back to close virtually unchanged. We are repeating our previous comments that readers may want to lock in a profit right here. Our first target was the $129.50-130.00 range. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our next target is the $134.00-135.00 range.

Picked on June 20 at $123.55
Change since picked: + 7.15
Earnings Date 08/15/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.6 million

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FedEx - FDX - cls: 116.56 change: +0.14 stop: 111.85

FDX is still bouncing sideways. Traders bought the dip again near $115.00. That's the second time this week bulls stepped in to defend the stock near $115. We are aiming for the $119.50-120.00 range. More conservative traders may want to consider a tighter stop loss.

Picked on July 12 at $114.42
Change since picked: + 2.14
Earnings Date 09/20/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million

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GulfMark - GMRK - cls: 54.94 change: +0.31 stop: 53.49

Bulls are still buying the dip in GMRK near $53.75. This is the third time in the last several days so the afternoon rebound might be used as a new bullish entry point. Although our suggestion from yesterday still stands, which is it might be more comfortable to look for a new rise past $55.86 before jumping into new call positions. Our target is the $59.50-60.00 range. We don't want to hold over the late July earnings report. FYI: Don't forget that GMRK expects to change symbols when it moves to the NYSE around July 20th.

Picked on July 09 at $ 55.05
Change since picked: - 0.11
Earnings Date 07/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 284 thousand

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GlobalSantaFe - GSF - cls: 72.06 change: +0.36 stop: 69.90

We don't see any change from our previous comments. Today's bounce erased yesterday's decline. The long-term trend is still up but short-term the technicals look bearish. We would wait for a very clear bounce near the $70.00 level or a new move over the 10-dma (near 73.50) before considering new positions. Our target is the $78.00-80.00 range. We do not want to hold over the early August earnings report. The P&F chart is bullish with an $87 target.

Picked on July 15 at $ 73.05
Change since picked: - 0.99
Earnings Date 08/02/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.8 million

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Helmerich Payne - HP - cls: 35.28 chg: +0.04 stop: 33.95

Traders bought the dip near HP's late June low, which also happened to test technical support at its rising 50-dma. Today's big intraday bounce looks like a new entry point for bullish positions. An alternative entry point would be to wait for a new relative high over $36.60. HP does appear to have long-term resistance near $40.00 so we're setting our target in the $39.85-40.00 range.

Picked on July 15 at $ 36.30
Change since picked: - 1.02
Earnings Date 08/01/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 923 thousand

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Russell 2000 iShares - IWM - cls: 84.27 chg: -0.30 stop: 81.35

The IWM dipped toward technical support at its 50-dma and bulls bought the dip. The iShares for the Russell 2000 are building on a positive pattern of higher lows. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $86.50-87.50 range.

Picked on June 24 at $ 82.85
Change since picked: + 1.37
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 71.6 million

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Joy Global - JOYG - cls: 64.14 chg: +1.15 stop: 59.75

Traders bought the dip in JOYG near its rising 10-dma. The rebound turned in an impressive 1.8% gain. Readers could use this as a new entry point for calls but if you do we suggest a tighter stop loss, maybe under $62.00. Our target is the $68.00-70.00 range. The Point & Figure chart is forecasting an $81 target.

Picked on July 11 at $ 62.05
Change since picked: + 2.09
Earnings Date 08/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.9 million

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L-3 Comm. - LLL - cls: 100.26 change: -0.26 stop: 97.45

LLL is still consolidating sideways near the $100 level but today's afternoon rebound looks like a potential entry point for new call positions. Our target is the $104.90-105.00 range. We would aim higher but we don't have a lot of time. We plan to exit ahead of the earnings report on July 26th. The P&F chart points to a $113 target.

Picked on July 12 at $100.15
Change since picked: + 0.11
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 640 thousand

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MAGNA Intl. - MGA - close: 95.19 chg: -0.69 stop: 91.89

MGA retested support today. The profit taking continued and shares actually gapped down to open at $94.25 and then dip to $93.37 before rebounding. The big bounce near support in the $93-94 range looks like a new entry point to buy calls again. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. Our target is the $99.50-100.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $110 target.

Picked on July 15 at $ 95.40
Change since picked: - 0.21
Earnings Date 08/08/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 719 thousand

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PACCAR - PCAR - close: 97.59 change: +3.03 stop: 91.95 *new*

PCAR displayed a lot of relative strength today. The stock soared 3.2% and closed at a new all-time higher. Shares are nearing our target in the $99.50-100.00 range. We are raising our stop loss to $91.95. We plan to exit ahead of the July 25th (unconfirmed) earnings report if PCAR doesn't hit our target first.

Picked on July 15 at $ 93.77
Change since picked: + 3.82
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million

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Pacific Ethanol - PEIX - cls: 13.64 chg: -0.28 stop: 12.83

Any potential gains in PEIX continue to fade away. It's usually not a good sign when a company's CFO resigns, which PEIX announced today. The stock dropped 2% on the news closed just under what should have been technical support at the 50-dma. Readers may just want to abandon ship. We're not suggesting new positions. We're not suggesting new positions.

Picked on June 24 at $ 12.83
Change since picked: + 0.81
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 892 thousand

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Penn National Gaming - PENN - cls: 59.37 chg: -0.44 stop: n/a

Shares of PENN continue to sink as time runs out on the bid clock. We're nearing the end of PENN's 45-day period to seek additional bidders. If you're willing to gamble on a new offer coming in over the next two weeks we would stick to the August strikes.

Picked on June 17 at $ 62.12
Change since picked: - 2.75
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million

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China Petro - SNP - cls: 107.40 change: -3.55 stop: 112.35

Ouch! SNP delivered a very bearish session. Shares gapped lower and broke down under what should have been support at $110 and the rising 50-dma. Fortunately, we're still sitting on the sidelines as spectators. We are going to give SNP one more day. If shares don't bounce tomorrow we'll drop it as a bullish candidate. Currently our trigger to buy calls is at $116.55.

Picked on July xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 08/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 563 thousand

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Toro Co. - TTC - cls: 61.24 change: -0.62 stop: 57.95

TTC dipped to its rising 10-dma midday. The afternoon bounce looks like a new bullish entry point to buy calls. More conservative traders may want to wait for more signs of a bounce and the same group of traders might want to use a tighter stop loss. Our target is the $64.95-65.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. The P&F chart points to a $77 target.

Picked on July 11 at $ 60.75
Change since picked: + 0.49
Earnings Date 08/23/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 354 thousand

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United States Steel - X - cls: 114.23 chg: +0.70 stop: 109.49

X stamped out a 0.6% gain as bulls bought the dip near $112 this morning. We see the bounce as a new bullish entry point but we've been suggesting that readers wait for a new rise past $115 or a new relative high above $116.40 before initiating new positions. More importantly we're almost out of time. We only have three days left. X is due to report earnings on the morning of July 24th and we don't want to hold over the report. We're not suggesting new positions due to this time factor.

Picked on July 13 at $115.51
Change since picked: - 1.28
Earnings Date 07/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.4 million

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XTO Energy - XTO - close: 61.13 change: +1.57 stop: 58.99*new*

Oil and energy stocks were market leaders on Wednesday thanks to new strength and highs in crude oil. XTO rose 2.6% and did so on above average volume. We see today's rebound as a new bullish entry point to buy calls. We are adjusting our stop loss to $58.99. Our short-term target is the $64.85-65.00 range. FYI: We only have four days left! XTO is due to report earnings on July 24th.

Picked on July 15 at $ 60.56
Change since picked: + 0.57
Earnings Date 07/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.8 million
 

Put Updates

Goldman Sachs - GS - cls: 214.99 chg: -4.41 stop: 224.05*new*

Sub-prime fears are really plaguing the broker-dealers and the group is getting some downgrades. Shares of GS lost 2% and on big volume but investors bought the dip near its June lows. Our target is the 200-dma but since it's been rising we have to adjust our official target zone to the $208.50-207.00 range. We are also adjusting our stop loss to $224.05.

Picked on July 10 at $217.08
Change since picked: - 2.09
Earnings Date 09/12/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.9 million
 

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

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Advanced Micro - AMD - cls: 15.46 chg: -0.38 stop: n/a

AMD's reaction to Intel's earnings was not as big as we thought it would be. More conservative traders may want to abandon this play and exit early. There is still a chance that AMD's earnings report due out tomorrow (Thursday) will produce some needed volatility. We're not suggesting new positions. The August options we suggested were the the August $16 call (AMD-HQ) and the August $15 put (AMD-TC). Our estimated cost was $1.18. We want to sell if either option hits $1.85 or higher. Aggressive traders could aim for $2.40.

Picked on July 15 at $ 15.43
Change since picked: + 0.03
Earnings Date 07/19/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 26.1 million

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Intel - INTC - cls: 25.06 change: -1.27 stop: n/a

INTC lost 4.8% on its earnings news. Investors decided to "sell the news" since gross margins came in under expectations. We were expecting a bigger move and more conservative traders may want to exit early. However, we do have August options, which gives us some time. We are no longer suggesting new strangle positions. The August options we suggested were the August $27.50 call (INQ-HY) and the August $25.00 put (INQ-TE). Our estimated cost was $0.96. We want to sell if either option hits $1.65 or higher.

Picked on July 15 at $ 25.97
Change since picked: - 0.91
Earnings Date 07/17/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 60.3 million

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Manpower - MAN - close: 94.46 chg: -0.59 stop: n/a

MAN continued to trade sideways as investors waited for the company's earnings report due out tomorrow morning. Wall Street's estimates are at $1.20 a share. We are no longer suggesting new strangle positions. We were suggesting the August $100 call (MAN-HT) and the August $90 put (MAN-TR). Our estimated cost was $3.35. We want to sell if either option hits $5.75 or higher.

Picked on July 15 at $ 94.60
Change since picked: - 0.14
Earnings Date 07/19/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 636 thousand

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MGIC Invest. - MTG - close: 56.00 change: -0.61 stop: n/a

Sub-prime fears sent shares of MTG to an intraday low of $54.69. Shares rebounded to close with a 1% loss. The company reports earnings tomorrow morning. Analysts' estimates are at $1.44 a share. We are not suggesting new positions. We were suggesting the August $60 call (MTG-HL) and the August $55.00 put (MTG-TK). Our estimated cost was $3.10. We want to sell if either option hits $5.95 or higher.

Picked on July 15 at $ 56.98
Change since picked: - 0.98
Earnings Date 07/19/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.8 million
 

Dropped Calls

Burlington Northern - BNI - cls: 92.14 chg: +1.54 stop: 86.99

Target achieved. Railroad stocks continued to out perform with the Dow Jones Railroad index breaking out to new all-time highs. Shares of BNI soared to an intraday high of $94.20. Our target was the $94.00-95.00 range. Volume was very big on BNI's rally today but if you did not exit with us be careful. Shares gave back a large portion of their intraday gains and the move looks like a bearish failed rally pattern.

Picked on July 12 at $ 88.17
Change since picked: + 3.97
Earnings Date 07/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.3 million
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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