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Call Updates

Avery Dennison - AVY - cls: 68.49 chg: 0.75 stop: 66.85*new*

A widespread market rally helped lift AVY to a 1.1% gain. The move is encouraging but we're quickly running out of time. The company is due to report earnings on the morning of July 24th. That gives us two more trading days. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. We are raising the stop loss to $66.85. Our target is the $69.75-70.00 range. We do not want to hold over the July 24th earnings report.

Picked on June 11 at $ 66.05
Change since picked: 2.44
Earnings Date 07/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 728 thousand

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Boeing Co - BA - cls: 102.48 change: 0.66 stop: 99.75

BA hit another new intraday high on Thursday. Yet we noticed that volume is drying up. Investors might be starting to step back and wait for BA's upcoming earnings report. We are running out of time. BA is due to report earnings on the morning of July 25th. We don't want to hold over the report no matter how good we think it is. That only gives us a few more days. Our target is the $109.00-110.00 range.

Picked on July 13 at $101.55
Change since picked: 0.93
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.1 million

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Deere Co - DE - close: 133.68 change: 2.98 stop: 127.45*new*

We are suggesting that readers exit early and take profits now. DE rallied 2.2% and hit an intraday high of $133.96. Our secondary target is the $134.00-135.00 range. Odds are pretty good that DE will pop over the $134.00 mark tomorrow morning but this looks close enough to lock in some gains. Aggressive traders might just want to let it run and use a trailing stop. We're going to adjust our stop loss to $127.45.

Picked on June 20 at $123.55
Change since picked: 10.13
Earnings Date 08/15/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.6 million

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FedEx - FDX - cls: 117.20 change: 0.64 stop: 113.75 *new*

FDX continues to trail the transports, which are at all time highs. Yet FDX is still developing a bullish trend of higher lows and FDX has tested short-term support near $115 several times. We are raising the stop loss to $113.75. We are aiming for the $119.50-120.00 range.

Picked on July 12 at $114.42
Change since picked: 2.78
Earnings Date 09/20/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million

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GulfMark - GMRK - cls: 55.33 change: 0.39 stop: 53.49

GMRK is still trying to bounce from support near $54.00 and today's rebound over $55.00 looks like a new entry point to buy calls. If you're feeling cautious you could inch up your stop toward tested support at the $53.75 level. Our one concern with GMRK is the earnings report. One source says GMRK is due to report July 26th, another July 27th, and another July 30th or later. None of these dates are confirmed yet, which makes it hard to plan an exit since we don't want to hold over the announcement. Keep this in mind if you're playing GMRK. Our target is the $59.50-60.00 range. FYI: Don't forget that GMRK expects to change symbols when it moves to the NYSE around July 20th. The new symbol is expected to be "GLF".

Picked on July 09 at $ 55.05
Change since picked: 0.28
Earnings Date 07/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 284 thousand

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GlobalSantaFe - GSF - cls: 73.28 change: 1.22 stop: 69.90

Traders bought the dip in GSF and shares rallied 1.6%. The stock closed just above its simple 10-dma, which is a bullish move. We see today's rebound as a new entry point to buy calls. Our target is the $78.00-80.00 range. We do not want to hold over the early August earnings report. The P&F chart is bullish with an $87 target.

Picked on July 15 at $ 73.05
Change since picked: 0.23
Earnings Date 08/02/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.8 million

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Helmerich Payne - HP - cls: 35.71 chg: 0.43 stop: 33.95

HP continues to bounce. The stock was up 1.2% and is nearing potential resistance in the $36.00-36.50 zone. We remain bullish on the stock and would still buy calls here but an alternative entry point would be to wait for a new relative high over $36.60. HP does appear to have long-term resistance near $40.00 so we're setting our target in the $39.85-40.00 range.

Picked on July 15 at $ 36.30
Change since picked: - 0.59
Earnings Date 08/01/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 923 thousand

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Russell 2000 iShares - IWM - cls: 84.51 chg: 0.27 stop: 81.35

The IWM has rebounded back toward resistance near $85.00. We don't see any changes from our previous comments and we're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $86.50-87.50 range.

Picked on June 24 at $ 82.85
Change since picked: 1.64
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 71.6 million

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Joy Global - JOYG - cls: 64.38 chg: 0.24 stop: 59.75

JOYG is still marching higher although it seemed to struggle with the July 16th high today. We don't see any changes from our previous comments. Our target is the $68.00-70.00 range. The Point & Figure chart is forecasting an $81 target.

Picked on July 11 at $ 62.05
Change since picked: 2.33
Earnings Date 08/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.9 million

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L-3 Comm. - LLL - cls: 100.55 change: 0.29 stop: 97.45

LLL posted another gain but the stock isn't making any progress. Shares are oscillating around the $100 level. We're starting to think that LLL might be stuck here, near $100, until after its upcoming earnings report. If LLL doesn't move soon we will probably switch to a strangle play. We're not suggesting new directional positions. Our target is the $104.90-105.00 range. We plan to exit ahead of the earnings report on July 26th. The P&F chart points to a $113 target.

Picked on July 12 at $100.15
Change since picked: 0.40
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 640 thousand

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MAGNA Intl. - MGA - close: 95.20 chg: 0.01 stop: 91.89

Be careful here! MGA turned in a disappointing session. The stock rallied just enough to fill the gap from Wednesday morning, which is bearish. Volume also came in very low. We suspect the next move will be a dip back toward the $94.00 region. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. Our target is the $99.50-100.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $110 target.

Picked on July 15 at $ 95.40
Change since picked: - 0.20
Earnings Date 08/08/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 719 thousand

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PACCAR - PCAR - close: 97.56 change: -0.03 stop: 91.95

Warning! This might be a short-term top in PCAR. Readers may want to exit early to lock in some type of gain. The stock rallied four times today and each time it failed in the $98.55-98.65 zone. The next move is likely to be down and the closest support looks like the $95.00 level. Another reason we may want to exit early is earnings. We can't find a confirmed report date. One source says July 25th another says the 24th. We do not want to hold over the announcement. Currently our target is the $99.50-100.00 range.

Picked on July 15 at $ 93.77
Change since picked: 3.79
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million

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Pacific Ethanol - PEIX - cls: 13.43 chg: -0.21 stop: 12.83

Sooner or later PEIX should see an oversold bounce. The stock is down two-weeks straight. Shares have broken at least two levels of potential support. Readers may just want to abandon ship. We're not suggesting new positions.

Picked on June 24 at $ 12.83
Change since picked: 0.60
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 892 thousand

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Penn National Gaming - PENN - cls: 59.29 chg: -0.08 stop: n/a

PENN only has eleven more days before time runs out to find another bidder. When the current acquisition plan was announced PENN got 45 days to solicit a higher bid. There is still a chance someone will step in but this play is getting more and more risky. If you're willing to gamble on a new offer coming in over the next several days we would stick to the August strikes.

Picked on June 17 at $ 62.12
Change since picked: - 2.83
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million

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Toro Co. - TTC - cls: 61.66 change: 0.42 stop: 57.95

TTC spiked lower at the open but traders bought the dip and TTC's rebound today looks like a new entry point to buy calls. We're tempted to raise our target but we'll keep it at $64.95-65.00 for now. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. The P&F chart points to a $77 target.

Picked on July 11 at $ 60.75
Change since picked: 0.91
Earnings Date 08/23/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 354 thousand

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XTO Energy - XTO - close: 61.83 change: 0.70 stop: 58.99

XTO continues to rally but we're running out of time. We only have two more trading days left. XTO has decided to report earnings before the opening bell on July 24th. Our short-term target is the $64.85-65.00 range.

Picked on July 15 at $ 60.56
Change since picked: 1.27
Earnings Date 07/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.8 million
 

Put Updates

Goldman Sachs - GS - cls: 211.69 chg: -3.30 stop: 224.05

Financials and the brokers continue to sink on sub-prime fears. GS produced a failed rally early this morning and then sank to new relative lows ($210.03). Our target is the $208.50-207.00 range because the rising 200-dma should be technical support. More aggressive traders may want to aim toward the $200 region.

Picked on July 10 at $217.08
Change since picked: - 5.39
Earnings Date 09/12/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.9 million
 

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

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Advanced Micro - AMD - cls: 15.78 chg: 0.32 stop: n/a

AMD produced a 2% bounce on big volume as investors placed their bets ahead of the company's earnings report tonight. When AMD did report the results were negative. AMD lost $600 million but sales were bit better and management thinks gross margins will improve. This has lifted shares of AMD up more than 4% in after hours trading. We're not suggesting new strangle plays at this time. The August options we suggested were the August $16 call (AMD-HQ) and the August $15 put (AMD-TC). Our estimated cost was $1.18. We want to sell if either option hits $1.85 or higher. Aggressive traders could aim for $2.40.

Picked on July 15 at $ 15.43
Change since picked: 0.35
Earnings Date 07/19/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 26.1 million

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Intel - INTC - cls: 25.26 change: 0.20 stop: n/a

There is no change from our previous comments on INTC. We were expecting a bigger move on its earnings report and more conservative traders may want to exit early now. However, we do have August options, which gives us some time. We are no longer suggesting new strangle positions. The August options we suggested were the August $27.50 call (INQ-HY) and the August $25.00 put (INQ-TE). Our estimated cost was $0.96. We want to sell if either option hits $1.65 or higher.

Picked on July 15 at $ 25.97
Change since picked: - 0.71
Earnings Date 07/17/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 60.3 million

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Manpower - MAN - close: 90.78 chg: -3.68 stop: n/a

Investors didn't like the ingredients for MAN's earnings report today and shares spiked lower. The intraday low was $89.03. This could be the beginning of a new leg down. We are no longer suggesting new strangle positions. We were suggesting the August $100 call (MAN-HT) and the August $90 put (MAN-TR). Our estimated cost was $3.35. We want to sell if either option hits $5.75 or higher.

Picked on July 15 at $ 94.60
Change since picked: - 3.82
Earnings Date 07/19/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 636 thousand

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MGIC Invest. - MTG - close: 55.81 change: -0.19 stop: n/a

As expected MTG's profits plunged on loan insurance losses. The company missed estimates by more than 40 cents a share. Yet oddly enough the stock failed to move on the earnings news. This was pretty surprising. Aside from some early morning volatility the stock traded sideways. Given the lack of earnings-induced volatility more conservative traders may want to abandon this play now. We do have August options so we're going to stick it out for a couple of days and see if MTG will move. We are not suggesting new positions. We were suggesting the August $60 call (MTG-HL) and the August $55.00 put (MTG-TK). Our estimated cost was $3.10. We want to sell if either option hits $5.95 or higher.

Picked on July 15 at $ 56.98
Change since picked: - 1.17
Earnings Date 07/19/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.8 million
 

Dropped Calls

China Petro - SNP - cls: 107.00 change: -0.40 stop: 112.35

PENN has turned south and broken down under multiple levels of support. It was our plan to buy a breakout with a trigger at $116.55 but that failed to occur. We're dropping SNP as a bullish candidate.

Picked on July xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: 0.00
Earnings Date 08/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 563 thousand

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United States Steel - X - cls: 110.56 chg: -3.67 stop: 109.49

A negative earnings report from steelmaker Nucor (NUE) yanked the carpet out from under the steel sector. Shares of X plunged from $114 to an intraday low of $108.77 before bouncing as investors feared that X might miss estimates too. Our stop loss was $109.49.

Picked on July 13 at $115.51
Change since picked: - 1.28
Earnings Date 07/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.4 million
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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