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Call Updates

Boeing Co - BA - cls: 103.86 change: +1.38 stop: 99.75

BA displayed relative strength on Friday. Shares broke out higher to a new all-time high and did so on above average volume, which is usually a bullish signal. Unfortunately, we're almost out of time. We are planning to exit on Tuesday at the closing bell to avoid holding over BA's earnings report on Wednesday morning (July 25th). We are not suggesting new positions. More conservative traders may want to exit early now given the market's weakness. Our target is the $109.00-110.00 range. FYI: Readers might want to tighten their stop toward $100.75 or $101, just under the 10-dma.

Suggested Options:
We are not suggesting new positions in BA at this time.

Picked on July 13 at $101.55
Change since picked: + 2.31
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.1 million

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FedEx - FDX - cls: 115.67 change: -1.53 stop: 114.42 *new*

The transportation stocks took a tumble on Friday. Honestly, we're surprised at the strength this sector did show last week given the rising price of crude oil. FDX dipped back toward its 10-dma and looks poised to retest support near $115.00. We are raising our stop loss to $114.42. Normally we would look for a bounce near $115 as a new entry point but we hesitate to suggest new bullish plays at this time. Our target was the $119.50-120.00 range.

Suggested Options:
We're not suggesting new positions at this time.

Picked on July 12 at $114.42
Change since picked: + 1.25
Earnings Date 09/20/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million

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GulfMark - GLF - cls: 55.75 change: +0.42 stop: 53.74 *new*

GMRK began trading under its new (NYSE) symbol of "GLF" on Friday. The company also announced that it will report earnings after the closing bell on August 1st. That gives us a little more time to play the bullish trend in GLF. We remain bullish and would still consider new positions here. However, we are inching up our stop loss to $53.74. Our target is the $59.50-60.00 range. If GLF doesn't hit our target we plan to exit on Wednesday, August 1st, before the closing bell.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the August calls.

BUY CALL AUG 55.00 GLF-HK open interest= 0 current ask $3.80
BUY CALL AUG 60.00 GLK-HL open interest= 0 current ask $1.30

Picked on July 09 at $ 55.05
Change since picked: + 0.70
Earnings Date 08/01/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 284 thousand

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GlobalSantaFe - GSF - cls: 74.74 change: +1.46 stop: 69.90

Bulls quickly bought the dip near $72.00 on Friday morning. GSF eventually powered past short-term resistance near $74.00 and hit new two-week highs. More conservative traders may want to inch their stops up toward $71.00. We're leaving our stop at $69.90 for now. The next hurdle for GSF is the old high near $76. Our target is the $78.00-80.00 range. We do not want to hold over the early August earnings report. The P&F chart is bullish with an $87 target.

Suggested Options:
A dip back toward $74 could be used as a new entry point. If GSF provides another entry point we'd suggest the August calls.

Picked on July 15 at $ 73.05
Change since picked: + 1.69
Earnings Date 08/02/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.8 million

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Helmerich Payne - HP - cls: 35.59 chg: -0.12 stop: 33.95

We remain bullish on HP. The company makes high-end drilling equipment and we're shocked that someone else in the industry hasn't acquired them. Given the pace of M&A in the market we think HP remains a high-odds takeover target. The question is when? Meanwhile the stock is doing just fine with a bullish trend of higher lows and technical support near its 40 and 50-dma. Technicals are a mixed bag and while we are suggesting positions now more conservative traders may want to wait for HP to clear resistance near $36.50 first. We plan to exit ahead of the August 1st earnings report. Our target is the $39.85-40.00 range, just under long-term resistance near $40.00. FYI: Readers might be tempted to adjust their stop loss toward the 50-dma around $34.40.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the August calls.

BUY CALL AUG 35.00 HP-HG open interest=270 current ask $1.80
BUY CALL AUG 40.00 HP-HH open interest=430 current ask $0.25

Picked on July 15 at $ 36.30
Change since picked: - 0.71
Earnings Date 08/01/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 923 thousand

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Joy Global - JOYG - cls: 63.03 chg: -1.35 stop: 59.75

JOYG is still inside a multi-month bullish trend but short-term technicals are starting to look bearish. You could argue that JOYG, like several stocks and sectors this week, has created a bearish double-top pattern, albeit a short-term one. JOYG has pulled back toward support near $62.00. More conservative traders may want to raise their stop loss toward the $62.00 region. If you're feeling more optimistic then a rebound from the $62 zone could be used as a new bullish entry point. Our target is the $68.00-70.00 range. The Point & Figure chart is forecasting an $81 target.

Suggested Options:
If JOYG provides another entry point we would suggest the August or October calls.

Picked on July 11 at $ 62.05
Change since picked: + 0.98
Earnings Date 08/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.9 million

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PACCAR - PCAR - close: 94.90 change: -2.66 stop: 91.95

Warning! We are also considering an early exit in PCAR. The stock lost 2.7% on Friday and gave back a big chunk of last week's gains. Shares slid lower on big volume this Friday, which is usually a bad sign. Furthermore PCAR has produced a very clear three-day bearish reversal pattern. We do suggest more conservative traders exit now! We're going to stick it out for another day and see if shares bounce near the rising 10-dma. FYI: We still can't find a confirmed earnings date and we're not suggesting new positions.

Suggested Options:
We are not suggesting new call positions in PCAR.

Picked on July 15 at $ 93.77
Change since picked: + 1.13
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million

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Penn National Gaming - PENN - cls: 58.77 chg: -0.52 stop: n/a

This play seems to be getting more and more speculative as each day passes. We're down to the last ten days before time runs out for PENN to find another bidder. We're not suggesting new positions. If you're willing to gamble on a new offer coming in over the next several days we would stick to the August strikes.

Suggested Options:
We're not suggesting new positions.

Picked on June 17 at $ 62.12
Change since picked: - 3.35
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million

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Toro Co. - TTC - cls: 60.04 change: -1.62 stop: 57.95

TTC's lack of follow through on Thursday's bounce is bad news. The stock lost 2.6% and plunged back toward round-number support near $60.00. Odds are good that TTC may have been influenced by investor react to CAT's earnings report. The technical indicators for TTC are turning bearish. More conservative traders may want to exit early right here! We're not suggesting new positions at this time even though normally a bounce from here would look like a bullish entry point. If you don't want to exit but you're feeling cautious then consider a tighter stop loss. Our target was the $64.95-65.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $77 target.

Suggested Options:
We're not suggesting new positions on TTC at this time.

Picked on July 11 at $ 60.75
Change since picked: - 0.71
Earnings Date 08/23/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 354 thousand

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XTO Energy - XTO - close: 60.77 change: -1.06 stop: 59.95 *new*

Time is almost up. Monday is our last day for XTO. We plan to exit at the closing bell on Monday to avoid holding over the company's earnings report on Tuesday morning. We will re-evaluate new positions after we see investor reaction to the earnings announcement. Please note we're inching up our stop loss to $59.95. Our short-term target is the $64.85-65.00 range.

Suggested Options:
We're not suggesting new positions in XTO at this time.

Picked on July 15 at $ 60.56
Change since picked: + 0.21
Earnings Date 07/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.8 million
 

Put Updates

None
 

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

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Advanced Micro - AMD - cls: 15.50 chg: -0.28 stop: n/a

We do not see any changes from our previous comments. AMD produced what appears to be a bearish failed rally pattern on Friday in addition to a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. We're not suggesting new strangle plays at this time. The August options we suggested were the August $16 call (AMD-HQ) and the August $15 put (AMD-TC). Our estimated cost was $1.18. We want to sell if either option hits $1.85 or higher. Aggressive traders could aim for $2.40.

Suggested Options:
We are not suggesting new strangles on AMD at this time.

Picked on July 15 at $ 15.43
Change since picked: + 0.07
Earnings Date 07/19/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 26.1 million

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Intel - INTC - cls: 24.55 change: -0.71 stop: n/a

INTC's post-earnings sell-off is picking up speed. Shares produced what looks like a failed rally under the 10-dma and broke down under new short-term support. The MACD on the daily chart has produced a new sell signal. We are no longer suggesting new strangle positions. The August options we suggested were the August $27.50 call (INQ-HY) and the August $25.00 put (INQ-TE). Our estimated cost was $0.96. We want to sell if either option hits $1.65 or higher. FYI: The August $25 put is already up to a $1.00.

Suggested Options:
We're not suggesting new strangles in INTC at this time.

Picked on July 15 at $ 25.97
Change since picked: - 1.42
Earnings Date 07/17/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 60.3 million

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Manpower - MAN - close: 90.87 chg: +0.09 stop: n/a

Shares of MAN were upgraded on Friday morning, which accounted for the stock gapping higher at the open. Fortunately, for the bears the move turned into another failed rally pattern. We are no longer suggesting new strangle positions. We were suggesting the August $100 call (MAN-HT) and the August $90 put (MAN-TR). Our estimated cost was $3.35. We want to sell if either option hits $5.75 or higher.

Suggested Options:
We are not suggesting new strangle positions at this time.

Picked on July 15 at $ 94.60
Change since picked: - 3.73
Earnings Date 07/19/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 636 thousand

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MGIC Invest. - MTG - close: 53.49 change: -2.32 stop: n/a

It looks like there was a bit of a delayed reaction in MTG to its earnings news out on Thursday morning. The stock broke down on Friday and closed with a 4.1% loss and a new relative low on big volume. This looks very bearish and the next level of support appears to be the $50-49 range. We are not suggesting new positions. We were suggesting the August $60 call (MTG-HL) and the August $55.00 put (MTG-TK). Our estimated cost was $3.10. We want to sell if either option hits $5.95 or higher.

Suggested Options:
We are not suggesting new strangle positions at this time.

Picked on July 15 at $ 56.98
Change since picked: - 3.49
Earnings Date 07/19/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.8 million
 

Dropped Calls

Avery Dennison - AVY - cls: 67.72 chg: -0.77 stop: 66.85

We are suggesting an early exit in AVY. The plan was to exit on Monday at the close to avoid earnings on Tuesday. However, the market weakness and AVY's pull back on Friday is our cue to bail out now.

Picked on June 11 at $ 66.05
Change since picked: + 1.68
Earnings Date 07/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 728 thousand

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Deere Co - DE - close: 129.07 change: -4.61 stop: 127.45

We are calling for an early exit in DE. Rival Caterpillar (CAT) missed earnings estimates. Shares of CAT plunged on the news and it pulled DE down with it. DE lost 3.4% on Friday. What is unfortunate is that DE hit an intraday high of $133.96 on Thursday. Our secondary (aggressive) target was the $134.00-135.00 range. DE had already hit our first target at $129.50 days ago. It's time to abandon ship. We'll definitely keep an eye on DE for future entry points.

chart:

Picked on June 20 at $123.55
Change since picked: + 5.52
Earnings Date 08/15/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.6 million

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Russell 2000 iShares - IWM - cls: 83.25 chg: -1.38 stop: 81.35

We suspect the market has put in a top. The Russell 2000 was never able to breakout past resistance even though the other major indices were hitting new relative highs. Now stocks are rolling over and short interest is at record highs. We're dropping the IWM as a bullish play.

Picked on June 24 at $ 82.85
Change since picked: + 0.40
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 71.6 million

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L-3 Comm. - LLL - cls: 99.91 change: -0.64 stop: 97.45

We are suggesting an early exit on LLL. The stock is not cooperating with us. Shares have been stuck in a trading range around the $100 level. We believe investors are just waiting for the company's upcoming earnings report. We're going to wait a day, maybe two, before considering a new strangle position on LLL to try and capture any post-earnings volatility.

Picked on July 12 at $100.15
Change since picked: - 0.24
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 640 thousand

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MAGNA Intl. - MGA - close: 94.21 chg: -0.99 stop: 91.89

We are giving up on MGA too and suggesting an early exit. Now we might just be too cautious here. MGA does still have what appears to be support near the $94.00 level and a bounce near $94.00 would look like a new bullish entry point. Unfortunately, given the market's weakness and combined with MGA's bearish failed rally near $96 on Friday (not to mention the bearish engulfing candlestick pattern), we would rather exit MGA now.

Picked on July 15 at $ 95.40
Change since picked: - 1.19
Earnings Date 08/08/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 719 thousand

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Pacific Ethanol - PEIX - cls: 13.38 chg: -0.05 stop: 12.83

We are also dropping PEIX. The stock has been slowly withering lower over the past two weeks and broke down under multiple levels of support. Friday did see a bounce from the $13.00 level but part of that was due to an analyst upgrade. Even an upgrade couldn't break the bearish pattern of lower highs. Readers may want to keep an eye on PEIX for a new rise past $14.00 down the road.

Picked on June 24 at $ 12.83
Change since picked: + 0.55
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 892 thousand
 

Dropped Puts

Goldman Sachs - GS - cls: 205.94 chg: -5.75 stop: 224.05

Target achieved and exceeded. Investors continue to fear how much unknown exposure the big broker-dealers may have to the sub-prime meltdown. The XBD broker-dealer index lost 2.3% on Friday. GS helped lead the way down with a 2.7% decline and a big bearish breakdown under technical support at the 200-dma, all of which occurred on big volume! Our target was the $208.50-207.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim toward the $200 region.

Picked on July 10 at $217.08
Change since picked: -11.14
Earnings Date 09/12/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.9 million
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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