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Call Updates

Boeing Co - BA - cls: 104.04 change: 0.18 stop: 99.75

We are running out of time with BA. Tomorrow is our last day and we plan to exit at the closing bell on Tuesday, July 24th so we can avoid holding over the company's earnings report. Wall Street expects BA to report earnings of $1.16 a share. We would not be surprised if BA announced a stock split. They last split their shares 2:1 in June 1997. We are not suggesting new positions. More conservative traders may want to exit early now. Our target is the $109.00-110.00 range.

Picked on July 13 at $101.55
Change since picked: 2.49
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.1 million

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FedEx - FDX - cls: 115.63 change: -0.04 stop: 114.42

Shares of FDX experienced some volatility this morning. Investors couldn't decide what to make of FDX's news that the company was cutting its fuel surcharge by 25% effective immediately for its FDX Freight customers. The stock eventually closed almost unchanged. A bounce from here would be a new bullish entry point but would hesitate to open new bullish positions at this time. Our target was the $119.50-120.00 range.

Picked on July 12 at $114.42
Change since picked: 1.25
Earnings Date 09/20/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million

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GulfMark - GLF - cls: 54.85 change: -0.90 stop: 53.74

Warning! GLF has produced a bearish reversal today. The stock actually produced both a bearish failed rally and a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. We are not suggesting new positions at this time and more conservative traders may want to cut their losses and exit now. Our target is the $59.50-60.00 range. If GLF doesn't hit our target we plan to exit on Wednesday, August 1st, before the closing bell.

Picked on July 09 at $ 55.05
Change since picked: - 0.20
Earnings Date 08/01/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 284 thousand

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Helmerich Payne - HP - cls: 35.31 chg: -0.28 stop: 33.95

M&A news between GSF and RIG this morning helped spike shares of HP to $36.76. Unfortunately, the strength in HP didn't last long and the stock produced a bearish failed rally and bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. This doesn't bode well for the bulls. More conservative traders may want to inch up their stop loss toward last week's low near $34.35. While the overall trend in HP remains bullish and we still think the company is a takeover candidate we're not suggesting new positions at this time. We plan to exit ahead of the August 1st earnings report. Our target is the $39.85-40.00 range, just under long-term resistance near $40.00.

Picked on July 15 at $ 36.30
Change since picked: - 0.99
Earnings Date 08/01/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 923 thousand

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Joy Global - JOYG - cls: 62.27 chg: -0.76 stop: 59.75

JOYG continues to slip and shares dipped toward short-term support around the $62.00 level. Volume came in above average on the pull back, which is not a good sign for the bulls. The overall trend for JOYG is bullish but some of the technicals have turned bearish. A bounce from here could be used as a new entry point but we suspect JOYG will test the $60 level soon. Our target is the $68.00-70.00 range. The Point & Figure chart is forecasting an $81 target.

Picked on July 11 at $ 62.05
Change since picked: 0.22
Earnings Date 08/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.9 million

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PACCAR - PCAR - close: 97.22 change: 2.32 stop: 93.77 *new*

PCAR displayed relative strength today with a 2.4% bounce as traders bought the dip near its 10-dma. This is good news because it negates the three-day bearish reversal candlestick pattern. Unfortunately, we cannot find a confirmed earnings date and the only one we can find is July 25th. Therefore, just to be safe, we're planning to exit tomorrow, July 24th, at the closing bell to avoid holding over any earnings announcement. We are also adjusting our target to the $99.00-100.00 range and our stop loss to $93.77.

Picked on July 15 at $ 93.77
Change since picked: 3.45
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million

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Penn National Gaming - PENN - cls: 58.83 chg: 0.06 stop: n/a

There is no change from our weekend comments for PENN. This play seems to be getting more and more speculative as each day passes. We're down to the last nine days before time runs out for PENN to find another bidder. We're not suggesting new positions. If you're willing to gamble on a new offer coming in over the next several days we would stick to the August strikes.

Picked on June 17 at $ 62.12
Change since picked: - 3.29
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million
 

Put Updates

Bear Stearns - BSC - cls: 134.25 chg: -0.47 stop: 142.55

BSC continues to look weak and we don't see any changes from our weekend comments. There doesn't appear to be any support until BSC hits the $127-125 region. The financials and the brokers have been suffering as investors fret over exposure to the sub-prime meltdown. It doesn't help BSC that the company has had two hedge funds focused on the sub-prime area virtually disintegrate. We are suggesting puts with BSC under $140. Our target is the $125.50-125.00 range. FYI: Be aware that while the technicals have turned bearish on the XBD broker-dealer index it did bounce from its 200-dma on Friday.

Picked on July 22 at $134.72
Change since picked: - 0.47
Earnings Date 09/13/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.4 million

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Harley Davidson - HOG - cls: 57.68 change: -0.53 stop: 60.26

Our new put play on HOG is now open. Shares sank to a new relative low under the March bottom. The intraday dip was $57.19. Our suggested trigger to buy puts was at $57.75. Should HOG see an oversold bounce the $59.00-60.00 range looks like overhead resistance. Our target is the $52.50-50.00 range. The P&F chart already points to $42.00.

Picked on July 23 at $ 57.75
Change since picked: - 0.07
Earnings Date 07/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = million

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Ryanair Holdings - RYAAY - cls: 39.17 change: 1.04 stop: 40.15

The dip in crude oil prices may have contributed to RYAAY's strength today. For the most part airlines stocks were flat to down. Unfortunately for us RYAAY was a relative performer to the upside with a 2.7% gain. We couldn't find any specific news to account for the move. Shares remain under technical resistance at the 50-dma and the $40.00 level. The stock looks poised to move higher tomorrow so we would take a step back and wait to see where (if) it reverses under resistance. More conservative traders may want to wait for a new relative low (under $37.40) before initiating positions. Our target is the $35.05-34.00 range, which is near the November 2006 gap. The P&F chart is already bearish with a $26 target.

Picked on July 22 at $ 38.13
Change since picked: 1.04
Earnings Date 06/05/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 812 thousand
 

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

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Advanced Micro - AMD - cls: 15.36 chg: -0.14 stop: n/a

The SOX semiconductor index closed near its lows for the day following Friday's bearish reversal pattern. That's not good news for the sector and both the SOX and AMD appear headed lower. We're not suggesting new strangle plays at this time. The August options we suggested were the August $16 call (AMD-HQ) and the August $15 put (AMD-TC). Our estimated cost was $1.18. We want to sell if either option hits $1.85 or higher. Aggressive traders could aim for $2.40.

Picked on July 15 at $ 15.43
Change since picked: 0.07
Earnings Date 07/19/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 26.1 million

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Amazon.com - AMZN - cls: 71.74 chg: 0.11 stop: n/a

There were a lot of analyst comments on AMZN today ahead of its earnings report due out tomorrow night. Yet in spite of all the chatter the stock didn't move much. Tuesday is our last day to open strangle positions before the earnings report. We are suggesting a $68.00-72.00 entry zone to open strangle positions. However, the closer to $70.00 the better. Furthermore you'll want to try and keep your dollar amounts balanced on both sides of the trade to keep the strategy neutral. Option prices seem a bit expensive so we're labeling this a higher-risk, more aggressive play. We were suggesting the August $75 calls (ZQN-HO) and the August $65 puts (ZQN-TM). Our estimated cost was $4.75. We want to sell if either option rises to $7.45.

Picked on July 22 at $ 71.63
Change since picked: 0.11
Earnings Date 07/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 10.7 million

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DaimlerChrysler - DCX - cls: 91.95 chg: 2.20 stop: n/a

DCX managed to reverse most of Friday's losses and in the process it did not provide a very favorable entry point for strangle plays. We are suggesting an $88-92 entry window. Currently shares are just inside the top boundary of that zone. We suspect that DCX will dip again tomorrow but there is no guarantee. Our preferred entry point would be near $90.00. Tomorrow is our last day to open positions ahead of DCX's preliminary Q2 earnings results due out on July 25th (unconfirmed). We were suggesting the August $95 calls (DCX-HS) and the August $85 puts (DCX-TQ). Our estimated cost was $3.70. We want to sell if either option rises to $6.45.

Picked on July 22 at $ 89.75
Change since picked: 2.20
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 million

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Intel - INTC - cls: 24.72 change: 0.17 stop: n/a

Intel managed a bit of an oversold bounce but it failed to clear the $25.00 level. Shares look poised to move lower. We are no longer suggesting new strangle positions. The August options we suggested were the August $27.50 call (INQ-HY) and the August $25.00 put (INQ-TE). Our estimated cost was $0.96. We want to sell if either option hits $1.65 or higher. FYI: The August $25 put is already up to a $1.00.

Picked on July 15 at $ 25.97
Change since picked: - 1.25
Earnings Date 07/17/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 60.3 million

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Lexmark - LXK - cls: 45.55 change: 0.12 stop: n/a

LXK continued to trade sideways as investors wait for the company's earnings report due out tomorrow morning. Wall Street is expecting a profit of 63 cents a share. We are no longer suggesting new positions. The options in our strangle were the August $50 calls (LXK-HJ) and the August $40 puts (LXK-TU). Our estimated cost was $0.75. We want to sell if either option rises to $1.50.

Picked on July 22 at $ 45.43
Change since picked: 0.12
Earnings Date 07/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.9 million

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Manpower - MAN - close: 91.40 chg: 0.53 stop: n/a

Some positive analyst comments this morning helped lift shares of MAN but the stock continues to fail at overhead resistance. We are no longer suggesting new strangle positions. We were suggesting the August $100 call (MAN-HT) and the August $90 put (MAN-TR). Our estimated cost was $3.35. We want to sell if either option hits $5.75 or higher.

Picked on July 15 at $ 94.60
Change since picked: - 3.20
Earnings Date 07/19/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 636 thousand

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MGIC Invest. - MTG - close: 52.59 change: -0.90 stop: n/a

MTG continues to sell-off on big volume. Shares hit a new three and a half year low today. We are not suggesting new positions. We were suggesting the August $60 call (MTG-HL) and the August $55.00 put (MTG-TK). Our estimated cost was $3.10. We want to sell if either option hits $5.95 or higher. FYI: The August $55 put is trading $3.50bid/$3.80ask. You may want to keep an ear open for Countrywide's (CFC) earnings results due out tomorrow morning. Their comments about the lending/housing market could move MTG.

Picked on July 15 at $ 56.98
Change since picked: - 4.39
Earnings Date 07/19/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.8 million
 

Dropped Calls

GlobalSantaFe - GSF - cls: 78.33 change: 3.59 stop: 69.90

Target achieved and exceeded. This morning, before the opening bell, it was announced that GSF and RIG would join together in a "merger of equals". The new company will keep the Transocean name and the symbol "RIG". Shares of GSF gapped open higher on the news at $79.99 and traded to $81.19 before paring its gains. Our target was the $78.00-80.00 range so we would have exited at the open.

Picked on July 15 at $ 73.05
Change since picked: 5.28
Earnings Date 08/02/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.8 million

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Toro Co. - TTC - cls: 60.57 change: 0.53 stop: 57.95

TTC is still struggling. The stock did out perform today with a 0.8% gain but shares have developed a new pattern of lower highs. Plus, the MACD on the daily chart has a new sell signal. We are suggesting an early exit now to cut our losses. More aggressive traders may want to stick it out. We'll keep an eye on TTC for a new rise past $62.00-62.50.

Picked on July 11 at $ 60.75
Change since picked: - 0.18
Earnings Date 08/23/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 354 thousand

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XTO Energy - XTO - close: 59.06 change: -1.71 stop: 59.95

XTO displayed relative weakness on Monday. Shares broke down under round-number support near $60.00 and technical support at its rising 50-dma. The stock hit our stop loss at $59.95 early this morning. This sort of pre-earnings jitters is not encouraging if you're a shareholder.

Picked on July 15 at $ 60.56
Change since picked: - 1.50
Earnings Date 07/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.8 million
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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