Penn National Gaming - PENN - cls: 58.30 chg: -0.53 stop: n/a
There is nothing new to report on for PENN. There is no change from our weekend comments for PENN. This play seems to be getting more and more speculative as each day passes. We're down to the last nine days before time runs out for PENN to find another bidder. We're not suggesting new positions. If you're willing to gamble on a new offer coming in over the next several days we would stick to the August strikes.
Picked on June 17 at $ 62.12
Bear Stearns - BSC - cls: 129.85 chg: -4.40 stop: 142.55
The broker-dealers continued to get crushed today. Countrywide's negative comments about the housing market and sub-prime loans was bad enough. Yet PIMCO's Bill Gross had to issue negative comments calling an end of the easy money leveraged buyout boom. The XBD index sank 3.7%. Shares of BSC fell 3.2% to a new relative low. More conservative traders may want to take some profits here. We're sticking with our target in the $125.50-125.00 range.
Picked on July 22 at $134.72
Harley Davidson - HOG - cls: 58.27 change: 0.59 stop: 60.26
Today was not a day we wanted to see relative strength in shares of HOG. Unfortunately the stock managed to close up with a 1% gain after being upgraded this morning. Watch for a failed rally near the $59.00-60.00 zone as a new entry point for bearish positions. Our target is the $52.50-50.00 range. The P&F chart already points to $42.00.
Picked on July 23 at $ 57.75
Ryanair Holdings - RYAAY - cls: 38.72 change: -0.45 stop: 40.15
RYAAY slipped about 1.1% but overall the airline sector was higher. The XAL index rose 0.3%. We remain bearish on RYAAY and the airlines but have to keep a careful eye on the price of oil. We're expecting oil to correct two or three weeks from now and that will probably lift the airlines. In the meantime the trend in RYAAY is bearish. We'd use a failed rally under $40.00 or a new relative low under $37.40 (maybe under $38.00) as a new entry point for puts. Our target is the $35.05-34.00 range, which is near the November 2006 gap. The P&F chart is already bearish with a $26 target.
Picked on July 22 at $ 38.13
(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)
Advanced Micro - AMD - cls: 15.21 chg: -0.15 stop: n/a
It was a rough day for tech stocks. The SOX semiconductor index broke down under short-term support with a 1.9% decline. AMD lost just under 1% as it clings to potential support near $15.00. We're not suggesting new strangle plays at this time. The August options we suggested were the August $16 call (AMD-HQ) and the August $15 put (AMD-TC). Our estimated cost was $1.18. We want to sell if either option hits $1.85 or higher. Aggressive traders could aim for $2.40.
Picked on July 15 at $ 15.43
Amazon.com - AMZN - cls: 69.25 chg: -2.49 stop: n/a
Be prepared to exit tomorrow! Shares of AMZN managed to churn sideways for the first half of the day as investors waited for the company's earnings report. Unfortunately for shareholders the stock eventually gave in to the market-wide sell-off and shares of AMZN lost 3.4%. In the process of pulling back AMZN provided us an entry point near $70.00. After the bell today AMZN reported earnings. The company beat estimates by 3 cents and raised its 2007 guidance. This news has propelled AMZN to a 19% gain in after hours trading with the stock near $84.00. At this point, if AMZN can open near $84, then the August $75 calls (ZQN-HO) should open in the $10-13 range. We are adjusting our suggested target price from $7.45 to $9.95. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. We are no longer suggesting new positions on the stock. The options in our suggested strangle were the August $75 calls (ZQN-HO) and the August $65 puts (ZQN-TM). Our estimated cost was $4.75.
Picked on July 22 at $ 71.63
DaimlerChrysler - DCX - cls: 89.45 chg: -2.50 stop: n/a
DCX pulled back toward $90.00 again providing us another great entry point to open strangle positions. We are not suggesting new plays at this time. We're expecting the company to present its preliminary Q2 earnings numbers tomorrow. We were suggesting the August $95 calls (DCX-HS) and the August $85 puts (DCX-TQ). Our estimated cost was $3.70. We want to sell if either option rises to $6.45.
Picked on July 22 at $ 89.75
Intel - INTC - cls: 24.52 change: -0.19 stop: n/a
INTC produced another bearish failed rally today. We are no longer suggesting new strangle positions. The August options we suggested were the August $27.50 call (INQ-HY) and the August $25.00 put (INQ-TE). Our estimated cost was $0.96. We want to sell if either option hits $1.65 or higher.
Picked on July 15 at $ 25.97
Lexmark - LXK - cls: 44.85 change: -0.70 stop: n/a
LXK reported earnings this morning but it appears the market did not know how to digest them. The stock bounced around in a relatively wide $2.85 range. Considering the company's bearish comments about their ink jet business we're expecting the next move to be down. We are no longer suggesting new positions. The options in our strangle were the August $50 calls (LXK-HJ) and the August $40 puts (LXK-TU). Our estimated cost was $0.75. We want to sell if either option rises to $1.50.
Picked on July 22 at $ 45.43
Manpower - MAN - close: 88.60 chg: -2.80 stop: n/a
MAN lost another 3% and produced another bearish failed rally pattern. Shares look poised to drop toward the $85.00 level. More aggressive traders may want to raise their target on the strangle exit. We are no longer suggesting new strangle positions. We were suggesting the August $100 call (MAN-HT) and the August $90 put (MAN-TR). Our estimated cost was $3.35. We want to sell if either option hits $5.75 or higher.
Picked on July 15 at $ 94.60
Boeing Co - BA - cls: 103.80 change: -0.24 stop: 99.75
BA rallied to a new all-time high today at $105.67 but eventually succumbed to the broad-market weakness. It was our plan to exit today at the closing bell to avoid holding over BA's earnings report due out tomorrow. Wall Street expects BA to report earnings of $1.16 a share. We would not be surprised if BA announced a stock split. They last split their shares 2:1 in June 1997.
Picked on July 13 at $101.55
FedEx - FDX - cls: 113.39 change: -2.24 stop: 114.42
A relatively positive earnings report from UPS was not enough to lift shares of FDX. Shares of FDX sold off today breaking support near $115 and the $114 levels. The stock hit our stop loss at $114.42 early this morning. Technicals have definitely turned bearish and volume on today's 1.9% decline was above average, which is bearish.
Picked on July 12 at $114.42
GulfMark - GLF - cls: 54.85 change: -0.90 stop: 53.74
Oil and oil service stocks were not safe havens during today's market-wide sell-off. The OIX oil index sank 3.2% and the OSX oil services index sank 2.3%. Shares of GLF under performed them both with a 4.4% decline. Shares hit our stop loss at $53.74.
Picked on July 09 at $ 55.05
Helmerich Payne - HP - cls: 34.00 chg: -1.31 stop: 33.95
HP is another oil service stock that hit some heavy profit taking. Shares dipped to $33.75, hitting our stop loss at $33.95. The move today broke multiple levels of support.
Picked on July 15 at $ 36.30
Joy Global - JOYG - cls: 59.56 chg: -2.71 stop: 59.75
Bulls rushed to lock in profits across the market sectors today and JOYG was hit with some heavy selling. Shares lost 4.3% on big volume and broke down under multiple levels of support. The stock hit our stop loss at $59.75.
Picked on July 11 at $ 62.05
PACCAR - PCAR - close: 92.71 change: -4.51 stop: 93.77
It was an ugly day for PCAR. First and foremost the company released earnings. We had been trying to avoid holding over earnings but couldn't find a confirmed date. We had planned to exit today because sources suggested PCAR would not announce until the 25th. Instead PCAR reported this morning and beat market estimates by 8 cents but that wasn't enough. The stock has produced a bearish reversal with today's bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. More importantly, we raised our stop loss to $93.77 yesterday and PCAR hit that stop today.
Picked on July 15 at $ 93.77
MGIC Invest. - MTG - close: 49.27 change: -3.32 stop: n/a
Target exceeded. The negative earnings news from Countrywide (CFC) helped drive MTG to new lows. MTG closed with a 6.3% loss even after bouncing from its intraday low at $48.46. Our suggested exit price was at $5.95. The August $55 put (MTG-TK) traded at $6.50 today.
Picked on July 15 at $ 56.98