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Call Updates

Lam Research - LRCX - cls: 57.59 chg: +0.12 stop: 53.90

The semiconductors had trouble producing any follow through on yesterday's big bounce. The SOX actually retested yesterday's lows. Meanwhile shares of LRCX bounced from a dip near $56 and closed just fractionally higher on low volume. We don't see any changes from our recent comments. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. Our target is the $59.75-60.00 range.

Picked on August 3 at $ 55.10
Change since picked: + 2.49
Earnings Date 08/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.9 million

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PACCAR - PCAR - cls: 82.73 change: -1.07 stop: 79.70

PCAR spent the session trading sideways in a $2.30 range. The stock remains under short-term technical resistance at the 10 and 100-dma. Don't be surprised to see another dip back toward support near $80.00. Our target is the $89.50-90.00 range.

Picked on July 26 at $ 82.87
Change since picked: - 0.14
Earnings Date 07/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.8 million

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Penn National Gaming - PENN - cls: 57.10 chg: -0.18 stop: n/a

We have less than two weeks left before August options expire. If something is going to happen with PENN it needs to happen quick. The stock should be trading near its buyout price around $67. The fact that it's not would suggest that the market doesn't believe this deal will get done - at least not in its current form or price. PENN's 45-day window to solicit a higher bid has expired. We're not suggesting new positions at this time.

Picked on June 17 at $ 62.12
Change since picked: - 5.02
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million

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Sears Holding - SHLD - cls: 133.05 chg: -1.04 stop: 127.49

SHLD's lack of follow through on yesterday's bounce is not a good sign for the bulls! The stock may retest yesterday's lows. If it does dip again wait for the bounce to appear before considering new positions. Right now our target is the $139.50-140.00 range but we're thinking about adding an aggressive target in the $145.00-150.00 zone. FYI: We checked two different sources today and it looks like SHLD is expected to report earnings on August 30th but nothing is confirmed yet.

Picked on August 3 at $133.00
Change since picked: + 0.05
Earnings Date 08/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million
 

Put Updates

ITT Educ. - ESI - cls: 104.35 change: -0.12 stop: 107.51

ESI's failure to bounce higher is good news for the bears but it still looks like the bears are in danger here. Wait and watch for a failed rally under its 10-dma or the $105 level before considering new bearish positions. Our target is the $92.00-90.00 range. The P&F chart is bearish with an $86 target.

Picked on August 05 at $102.22
Change since picked: + 2.13
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 491 thousand

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MSCI Brazil iShares - EWZ - close: 62.18 chg: +1.08 stop: 64.15

The EWZ ishares continued to rebound but stalled under technical resistance at the 10-dma and 50-dma, which is a good sign for the bears. We're still in jeopardy and the huge volume on the current rebound is very worrisome. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Wait for a failed rally under the 10-dma before considering new put positions. Our target is the $55.25-55.00 range.

Picked on August 06 at $ 59.90
Change since picked: + 2.28
Earnings Date 07/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 9.7 million

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FMC Tech. - FTI - cls: 92.18 change: +2.36 stop: 92.51

Crude oil and oil service stocks both rebounded on Tuesday. Shares of FTI continued with yesterday's afternoon bounce. The stock posted a 2.6% gain on strong volume and broke through technical resistance at the 10-dma. This doesn't bode well for the bears and FTI looks poised to hit our stop tomorrow morning!

Picked on August 05 at $ 88.22
Change since picked: + 3.96
Earnings Date 07/30/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 677 thousand

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Harley Davidson - HOG - cls: 56.62 change: -0.10 stop: 60.26

Trading in HOG was interesting today. There was almost no follow through on yesterday's bullish reversal pattern. The stock tried to rally twice and failed both times. We remain cautious here. Currently the stock should find short-term resistance near the $58.00 level. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $52.50-50.00 range. The P&F chart already points to $42.00.

Picked on July 23 at $ 57.75
Change since picked: - 1.13
Earnings Date 07/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = million

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Lubrizol - LZ - cls: 60.84 change: -0.53 stop: 64.15

The relative weakness in LZ today looks like a new bearish entry point. The stock produced a failed rally under $62 and its 100-dma. More conservative traders may want to lower their stop loss. Our target is the $57.00-55.00 range. $57.00 is near the top of the April gap and $55.00 is near technical support at its 200-dma.

Picked on July 29 at $ 61.62
Change since picked: - 0.78
Earnings Date 07/27/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 563 thousand
 

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

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DaimlerChrysler - DCX - cls: 88.26 chg: -1.79 stop: n/a

DCX displayed a lot of relative weakness with a 1.9% loss. Shares are flirting with a breakdown below the bottom of its $92-88 trading range. The next challenge for the bears is potential support at the rising 100-dma. We are not suggesting new strangles on DCX at this time. The options in our suggested strangle were the August $95 calls (DCX-HS) and the August $85 puts (DCX-TQ). Our estimated cost was $3.70. We want to sell if either option rises to $6.45.

Picked on July 22 at $ 89.75
Change since picked: - 1.49
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 million
 

Dropped Calls

Allegheny Tech - ATI - cls: 101.74 change: -0.17 stop: 98.49

It was another volatile day for the markets and for ATI. The stock dipped to $97.68 and broke support near $100 and its rising 200-dma before the afternoon market rebound. Our stop loss was at $98.49. We would keep an eye on ATI for a breakout over the 10-dma as a short-term bullish signal. Meanwhile a new relative low under $97.50 could be a bearish signal and readers might want to target a drop toward $90.00 (although shares are looking a little short-term oversold here).

Picked on August 6 at $100.50
Change since picked: + 1.24
Earnings Date 10/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.0 million
 

Dropped Puts

Avalonbay - AVB - cls: 116.34 change: +4.66 stop: 115.26

AVB continued to rebound and shares broke through resistance at the $115.00 level midday. Our stop loss was at $115.26. We did not see anything specific driving the rally but noticed the daily chart's MACD has turned bullish again.

Picked on August 05 at $109.77
Change since picked: + 6.57
Earnings Date 07/31/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million

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Bank of Amer. - BAC - cls: 48.67 chg: +0.51 stop: 48.51

Financial stocks continued to rebound and BAC hit our stop loss at $48.51. The afternoon rally hit resistance at its 50-dma and turned lower so today's action may end up being a new entry point for bearish positions. However, we're not suggesting new positions at this time.

Picked on August 06 at $ 46.75
Change since picked: + 1.92
Earnings Date 07/19/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 22.7 million
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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