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Call Updates

Broadcom - BRCM - cls: 36.52 change: +0.40 stop: 33.95

BRCM displayed some volatility this morning. There was early weakness and a dip to $35.67 and then suddenly a spike toward $37.00 (actually 36.87) before shares pulled back. The $37 level is significant resistance so more conservative readers may want to wait for a breakout over $37 before initiating new positions. Our target is the $39.85-40.00 range. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $49 target. Please note that we do not want to hold over the mid October earnings report.

Picked on September 12 at $ 35.85
Change since picked: + 0.67
Earnings Date 10/10/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 11.0 million

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Citigroup - C - clos: 46.59 change: -0.92 stop: 45.65

Financial stocks were some of the market's worst performers today. The BKX banking index lost 1.7% and the BIX lost 1.6%. Shares of C were leading the way with a 1.9% decline and a bearish breakdown under what should have been support near $47.00 and its 10-dma. This doesn't look good for the bulls and readers might want to cinch up their stop losses toward the $46 level. We're not suggesting new positions at this time but we will be looking for a bounce near $46.00. Our initial target is the $49.85-50.00 range but we might decide later to add a more aggressive target at the 200-dma. Please note that we do not want to hold over the October 19th earnings report.

Picked on September 16 at $ 46.64
Change since picked: - 0.05
Earnings Date 10/19/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 40.7 million

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Intl. Bus. Mach.- IBM - cls: 116.25 chg: -0.53 stop: 113.90

We warned readers over the weekend to look for IBM to pull back. The stock dipped to its 10-dma this afternoon. Short-term technical indicators are definitely turning into more bearish looking patterns. We would still expect a dip toward the $115 zone. Shares of IBM continue to have resistance near $119 (and probably the $120) level. A bounce near $115 could be used as a new entry point but more conservative traders might want to wait for a new relative high. The stock has already hit our $118-120 target range. Our second, more-aggressive target is the $124.00-125.00 zone. FYI: The Point & Figure is very bullish with a $177 target. We do not want to hold over the mid October earnings report.

Picked on August 26 at $113.24
Change since picked: + 3.01
Earnings Date 10/17/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 9.5 million

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Lockheed - LMT - cls: 102.35 change: -0.85 stop: 97.99

LMT spiked higher at the open, actually gapping open at $103.81, and shares hit $104.01 before turning south. We were suggesting that readers buy calls on a breakout over resistance at $103.50 and listed a trigger to open positions at $103.75. Therefore we would have been opened at today's first trade $103.81. Today's performance is a bit disappointing with a failed rally at $104 but traders were buying the dip near $102 all day long. Our biggest concern now is what appears to be news that came out after the closing bell. That news was an announcement from the U.S. Airforce warning LMT about cost overruns with the C-5 program. The Airforce or Congress could decide to shut down the program. At this time we did not see any after hours reaction in shares of LMT. If the stock does dip tomorrow then look for a bounce near $100 or its 10-dma as a new entry point for bullish positions. We remain positive on the stock with shares above $100. Our target is the $109.50-110.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. The P&F chart points to a $117 target. We do not want to hold over the late October earnings.

Picked on September 24 at $103.81 *gapped higher
Change since picked: - 1.46
Earnings Date 10/24/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.7 million

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Stryker - SYK - cls: 67.28 change: -0.73 stop: 65.90

There is no change from our previous comments on SYK. We are waiting for a breakout to new highs. Our plan calls for a trigger at $70.65 to open positions. If triggered at $70.65 our target is the $74.90-75.00 range. Given the length of SYK's consolidation we would actually aim higher, maybe the $77.50-80.00 range, but we don't have much time and plan to exit ahead of the mid October earnings report. The P&F chart is bullish with an $83 target.

Picked on September xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/17/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.4 million

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Trina Solar - TSL - cls: 56.16 chg: +4.27 stop: 47.49

Wow! TSL is off to a strong start. Shares continued to surge today and closed with an 8.2% gain on volume nearing three times the daily average. This doesn't look like a short squeeze since TSL didn't have any significant short interest last time the numbers were counted. The big volume is a positive sign. We would not chase TSL here since our target is the $58.00-60.00 range.

Picked on September 23 at $ 51.89
Change since picked: + 4.27
Earnings Date 11/22/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million
 

Put Updates

Alexander & Baldwin - ALEX - cls: 48.44 chg: -1.06 stop: 52.01

Shares of ALEX continue to show relative weakness. The stock lost another 2% following Friday's bearish breakdown under support. Volume on today's decline was also above average, which is not a good sign for the share price. The P&F chart is already bearish with a $36 target. There is some support near $47.50 but we're aiming for a decline into the $45.50-45.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late October earnings.

Picked on September 23 at $ 49.50
Change since picked: - 1.06
Earnings Date 10/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 337 thousand

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Cephalon - CEPH - cls: 73.43 chg: +0.18 stop: 74.25

CEPH displayed some weakness this morning but bulls bought the dip near $72.00 again. We're waiting for a breakdown under short-term support at $72.00. We want to see a new relative low so we're suggesting a trigger to buy puts at $71.70. Please note that any time we trade a biotech stock it should be considered higher-risk. You never know when there is going to be a surprise announcement about an FDA approval or lack thereof or a surprise announcement on some new breakthrough or clinical trial. It's tough to defend against this sort of headline risk that could send a biotech stock gapping one way or the other. If we are triggered at $71.70 our target will be the $68.00-67.00 range. More aggressive traders could aim for the $65 region. The P&F chart is very bearish with a $50 target.

Picked on September xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 11/01/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million
 

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

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Bear Stearns - BSC - cls: 112.99 chg: -4.33 stop: n/a

Financial stocks were big under performers today and BSC helped lead the slide with a 3.7% sell-off and what looks like a failed rally at its 50-dma. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Currently our strangle involves the October $115 call (BSC-JC) and the October $95 put (BVD-VS). Our estimated cost was $9.50 and we want to sell if either option hits $14.00 or more. This should be considered a more aggressive play.

Picked on September 09 at $105.37
Change since picked: + 7.62
Earnings Date 09/20/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 8.7 million

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Dow Jones Industrial Avg. - DJX - cls: 137.59 chg: -0.61 stop: n/a

We have nothing new to report on for the DJX. We are not suggesting new positions on the October version of our strangle. The options listed for our October strangle were the October $137 calls (DJY-JG) and the October $132 puts (DJW-VB) with an estimated cost of $4.75. We want to sell if either option hits $6.75.

Picked on September 16 at $134.43
Change since picked: + 3.16
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = million
 

Dropped Calls

Apple Inc. - AAPL - cls: 148.28 change: +4.13 stop: 135.99

Target achieved. Actually multiple targets achieved. Monday turned out to be a very bullish day for AAPL. Before the opening bell Citigroup reiterated their "buy" rating and upped their price target from $160 to $185 on AAPL. Shares of AAPL reacted by gapping open at $146.73 and surging to $149.86 before paring its gains. Our first target was the $144.75-145.00 range but we would have been taken out at the opening trade of $146.73. Our second target was the $149.00-150.00 range. We are still bullish on AAPL and will be looking for a dip back toward the $146-145 zone or a new high over $150 as a potential entry point for new positions.

Picked on September 17 at $140.25
Change since picked: + 8.03
Earnings Date 10/18/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 39.9 million

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Thornburg Mtg - TMA - cls: 12.57 chg: -0.81 stop: 11.90

Abandon ship! All hands abandon ship! We warned readers earlier that TMA was not looking very healthy and that the recent weakness was a real concern. While fundamentally there isn't any reason for TMA to be sold off on sub-prime fears the market doesn't seem to care. The stock lost six percent today as financial stocks trended lower. We would rather cut our losses now and look for a potential bounce wherever TMA can find a bottom.

Picked on September 16 at $ 13.63
Change since picked: - 1.06
Earnings Date 10/15/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.4 million
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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