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Call Updates

Goodrich Corp. - GR - close: 69.74 change: -1.00 stop: 66.90

GR managed to hold on to round-number support at the $70.00 level almost all day. The stock finally cracked right there at the end when the broad-based selling began to pick up speed in the markets. This is bearish. At this time and considering the current market environment readers will want to consider an early exit to cut their losses now or look for a dip toward technical support at the rising 50-dma near $67.50. We are not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. Our conservative target is the $74.90-75.00 range. Our more aggressive target is the $78.00-80.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish and points to a $99 target. FYI: The last week's candlestick on the weekly chart does look like a short-term top. Traders need to play defensively.

Picked on November 05 at $ 71.05
Change since picked: - 1.31
Earnings Date 10/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million

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Icon Pub. Ltd. - ICLR - close: 58.66 chg: -1.09 stop: 55.90

ICLR was also holding up relatively well until the last 30 minutes of trading. Today's move has painted a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. Readers should turn defensive on this play and considering the market environment you may want to exit early now! Short-term technicals are starting to look ugly but a bounce near $58.50-58.00 might still look like a bullish entry point. Instead of exiting you could raise your stop loss to $57.00 or towards $58.00. Our target is the $63.50-65.00 range. We would consider this a higher-risk play for the simple reason that volume is so low on both the stock and the options. FYI: More aggressive traders may want to aim higher.

Picked on November 06 at $ 58.79
Change since picked: - 0.13
Earnings Date 10/23/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 107 thousand

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L-3 Comm. - LLL - cls: 110.33 chg: -1.37 stop: 107.99

As expected LLL continued to drift lower. Shares closed near potential support at the $110 level. We would wait for signs of a bounce before considering new positions. More conservative traders might want to think about raising their stops toward $109 or $110. LLL has already hit our first target in the $114-115 range. Our second, more aggressive target is the $118.00-120.00 range. FYI: The P&F chart's bullish target has risen from $133 to $139.

Picked on October 29 at $108.10
Change since picked: + 2.23
Earnings Date 10/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 627 thousand

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Las Vegas Sands - LVS - cls: 113.06 chg: -2.85 stop: 107.45

We warned readers to look for weakness in LVS on Monday. There was no follow through on Friday's bounce and Monday's midday rally failed and produced a short-term lower high. All of this is short-term bearish. We would expected a dip back toward $110 or its 100-dma. Wait and watch for a bounce in the $112.00-110.00 zone. Our secondary, aggressive target is the $121.00-122.50 zone. LVS has already hit our initial target near $117.

Picked on November 08 at $111.60
Change since picked: + 1.46
Earnings Date 11/02/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.0 million

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Northrop Gruman - NOC - cls: 81.75 chg: -0.72 stop: 79.99

We remain defensive on NOC. The stock's early morning bounce failed and the selling was picking up speed into the closing bell (like most of the market). The $81.00 and $80.00 levels should be the next areas of potential support for NOC. Unfortunately, short-term technicals have turned negative. Wait for signs of a bounce before considering new bullish positions. Our target is the $89.00-90.00 range. The P&F chart shows a bullish catapult pattern with a $92 target.

Picked on November 06 at $ 84.48
Change since picked: - 2.73
Earnings Date 10/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.4 million
 

Put Updates

Chipotle Mexican Grill- CMG - cls: 117.12 chg: -4.48 stop: 125.12

Our new bearish put play on CMG is now open. The stock tried to bounce this morning but it failed at $125.11. Shares quickly reversed and broke down under support near $120 and the 50-dma. Our suggested trigger to buy puts was at $119.45. We're adjusting the stop loss to $125.12. Our target is the $112.00-110.00 range. One of the biggest risks for us is that CMG might dip under $120 on an intraday basis and then rebound again. More conservative traders may want to play with tighter stops even further

Picked on November 12 at $119.45
Change since picked: - 2.33
Earnings Date 10/30/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 697 thousand

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Dryships - DRYS - cls: 83.81 change: -13.31 stop: 100.05 *new*

Shares of DRYS oscillated between $95.50 and $98.50 for about 30 minutes this morning before the profit taking really swooped in with a vengeance. If you were quick enough to jump in this morning we STRONGLY suggest that you take profits right here. Don't wait for the final dip toward $80.00. Currently our target is the $80.50-80.00 zone. We're not suggesting new bearish plays at this time. We are adjusting the stop loss to $100.05. If you choose not to exit now more conservative traders might want to adjust their stop toward $90.00. FYI: This morning DRYS announced a 3-for-1 stock split but the market did not seem to notice.

Picked on November 11 at $ 97.13
Change since picked: -13.32
Earnings Date 10/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.5 million
 

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

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Borg Warner - BWA - cls: 99.13 change: +0.81 stop: n/a

BWA displayed some relative strength with a gain today but the short-term two-week trend still looks bearish. We do not see any changes from our weekend comments. We have four days left before November strikes expire. The options we suggested for a strangle were the November $100 calls (BWA-KT) and the November $90 puts (BWA-WR). Our estimated cost was $4.50. We want to sell if either option hits $7.25 or more.

Picked on October 23 at $ 95.67
Change since picked: + 3.46
Earnings Date 10/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 392 thousand

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Express Scripts - ESRX - cls: 63.38 chg: +1.16 stop: n/a

ESRX also displayed relative strength but it's little help now. We do not see any changes from our weekend comments. There are four days left for November options. We are no longer suggesting new strangle positions on ESRX. The options we suggested for a strangle were the November $65 calls (XTQ-KM) and the November $55 puts (XTQ-WK). Our estimated cost was $1.95. We want to sell if either option hits $3.50 or higher.

Picked on October 21 at $ 59.65
Change since picked: + 3.73
Earnings Date 10/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.1 million

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Monster Worldwide - MNST - cls: 35.42 chg: -0.36 stop: n/a

MNST continues to sink and has closed under its 200-dma. We only have four days left on November strikes. We are no longer suggesting new positions. The options we suggested for our strangle were the November $40 calls (BSQ-KH) and the November $35 puts (BSQ-WG). Our estimated cost is $1.75. We want to sell if either option hits $2.95 or higher.

Picked on October 23 at $ 37.22
Change since picked: - 1.80
Earnings Date 10/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.0 million
 

Dropped Calls

Anadarko Petrol. - APC - cls: 54.82 change: -2.79 stop: 55.99

We just experienced a worst-case scenario with APC barring any massive gap opens. A few days ago, on November 7th, shares of APC hit our trigger to buy calls on a breakout to a new all-time high at $60.55. The stock hit another new high on Thursday before paring its gains but it still held up relatively well. Then Friday's market sell-off occurred and today the oil stocks continued to sink. A 2% drop in crude oil to under $95 a barrel fueled another retreat for the energy bulls. Shares of APC lost 4.8% and did so on above average volume. The stock hit our stop loss at $55.99 this morning. More nimble traders might want to watch for a bounce near $55 and its 50-dma as an aggressive bullish entry point with a very tight stop loss.

Picked on November 07 at $ 60.55
Change since picked: - 5.73
Earnings Date 11/05/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.9 million

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Deere Co. - DE - close: 141.84 change: -11.19 stop: 152.75

Investors rushed to sell anything that had any gains left in it. Shares of DE, which hit new highs just a few days ago and our first target near $160, was crushed today with a 7.3% decline and on strong volume. The stock broke down under its short-term trend of higher lows, it broke down under round-number support near $150 and its broke down under support at its 50-dma (and the $145 level while we're at it). The stock was in a free-fall all day long. Shares quickly hit our stop loss at $152.75.

Picked on November 04 at $152.73
Change since picked: -10.89
Earnings Date 11/21/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million

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ITT Educational Ser. - ESI - cls: 122.74 chg: -3.74 stop: 122.49

It was a rough day for ESI but the selling really picked up speed this afternoon when the market turned south. ESI actually gapped down late this afternoon as selling accelerated. The stock managed to hit our stop just before the close.

Picked on November 08 at $130.47
Change since picked: - 7.73
Earnings Date 01/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 426 thousand

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Petro Canada - PCZ - close: 54.90 change: -2.81 stop: 54.90

The action in some of the oil stocks today seems a bit overdone. Crude oil only lost about 2% and expectations for this week's inventory numbers are not bearish. Yet when trading opened today shares of PCZ gapped open lower at $56.00 and then plunged to $54.14 before bouncing. The stock lost 4.8% on the day and broke several levels of short-term support. Our stop loss was at $54.90.

Picked on November 06 at $ 59.25
Change since picked: - 4.35
Earnings Date 10/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 742 thousand

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PetroChina - PTR - close: 184.54 chg: -17.35 stop: 189.49

Asian markets dropped sharply as they reacted to the U.S. market weakness on Friday and renewed concerns over the weekend. We warned readers to expect PTR to gap down on Monday but we were obviously not expecting shares to gap down to $189.00 this morning. The combination of weakness in Asia and a drop in crude oil pushed PTR to a 8.59% loss. The stock has broken multiple levels of support including the $190 level and its 50-dma. The next bounce is probably near $180 or the $170 region. Our stop loss was at $189.49 so this morning's open at $189.00 would have stopped us out. Today's a good example of why we labeled this an aggressive, high-risk play.

Picked on November 08 at $200.25
Change since picked: -15.71
Earnings Date 03/08/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million

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Steel Dynamics - STLD - close: 46.80 chg: -2.78 stop: 49.25

Steel stocks were weak today and STLD was no exception. We told readers over the weekend that if the markets did not bounce on Monday morning we expected to be stopped out today. Unfortunately, our exit was worse than expected. The stock gapped down at $48.81, under our stop loss at $49.25. Shares of STLD eventually broke through technical support at its 50-dma.

Picked on November 06 at $ 52.93
Change since picked: - 6.13
Earnings Date 01/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million

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Tesoro - TSO - close: 54.17 change: -1.85 stop: 54.59

Bulls have been defending TSO in the $54.50 region for days. Today's market weakness and acceleration lower into the closing bell was too much for TSO. The stock broke support and hit our stop loss at $54.59.

Picked on November 06 at $ 59.13
Change since picked: - 4.96
Earnings Date 01/29/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.4 million
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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