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Call Updates

Constellation Energy - CEG - cls: 98.16 chg: -0.26 stop: 94.45

Warning flag should be waving in your head if you're bullish on CEG. The stock has completely ignored a very impressive two-day rally in the markets. In spite of this relative weakness CEG's pattern is still bullish. However, what is not bullish is the above average volume over the last three days with the stock going sideways. We noted it yesterday. This smells like distribution. More nimble traders may want to open bullish positions here with a tight stop under today's low or under $96.00. We would suggest readers wait for a rally above $100 or 101 before initiating new positions. If you're feeling conservative then readers might want to raise their stop loss toward $96.00. The trend remains bullish. Our target is the $107.50-110.00 range.

Picked on November 20 at $100.56
Change since picked: - 2.40
Earnings Date 01/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 million

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Energizer - ENR - close: 109.93 chg: +0.25 stop: 104.99

ENR is another stock that should be sending off warning flares if you're bullish. Shares of ENR have ignored the market's big two-day rally (or short squeeze if you prefer). It's like traders are ignoring what was strong during the market's sell-off and focusing on stocks that have been beaten down (a.k.a. bargain shopping). The overall pattern for ENR remains bullish and we would still consider new positions here but a rally above today's high ($110.30) or above the $112.50 level would be much more encouraging. More conservative traders may want to use a tighter stop loss near the 100-dma (around 107.70). Our target is the $119.00-120.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $157 target.

Picked on November 26 at $112.75 *triggered
Change since picked: - 2.82
Earnings Date 01/28/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 511 thousand

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Express Scripts - ESRX - close: 68.14 chg: +2.45 stop: 62.45

Now this is more like it! ESRX jumped higher with a 3.7% gain. The stock has broken out above resistance near $66.00 and closed at new highs. Our target is the $69.50-70.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. The Point & Figure chart suggests a $97 target.

Picked on November 13 at $ 64.67
Change since picked: + 3.47
Earnings Date 02/07/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million

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Flowserve - FLS - cls: 93.41 change: +3.53 stop: 88.45

Our play in FLS has turned positive again. The stock rallied to a 3.9% gain albeit on below average volume. This looks like a new entry point to buy calls although more conservative traders may want to wait for a rally over $95.00. Our target is the $99.50-100.00 range. The P&F chart has a $108 target.

Picked on November 25 at $ 93.04
Change since picked: + 0.37
Earnings Date 02/28/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 724 thousand

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Gilead Sciences - GILD - cls: 45.83 change: +1.34 stop: 41.74

It looks like the BTK biotech index is breaking out from a bearish channel. Helping lead the charge higher is GILD, which rose over 3% today. The move over short-term resistance near $45.00 is definitely a positive for GILD. Our target is the $47.00-48.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher.

Picked on November 13 at $ 43.11
Change since picked: + 2.72
Earnings Date 01/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.6 million

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Synaptics Inc. - SYNA - close: 60.35 chg: +3.77 stop: 52.95*new*

The market's big rally and strength in tech stocks helped lift SYNA to a 6.6% gain. The stock actually cleared potential round-number resistance at $60.00. Shares could hit our target in the $61.50-62.00 range tomorrow. We are raising our stop loss to $52.95. More conservative traders may want to use a tighter stop or just lock in profits now.

Picked on November 26 at $ 56.55 *triggered
Change since picked: + 3.80
Earnings Date 01/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million

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ExxonMobil - XOM - close: 87.92 chg: +1.54 stop: 82.99

Oil has crashed in the last couple of sessions. Crude oil futures have fallen about $7 toward the $90 level. Yet shares of XOM have been bouncing. The widespread market rally lifted XOM to a 1.78% gain. We would still be buyers here but XOM is nearing resistance near $89 and its 100-dma. More conservative traders might want to adjust their stops toward $84.00. We are leaving our stop under the 200-dma. Our target is the $92.50-95.00 range. More conservative traders may want to lock in some gains near $90.00. More aggressive traders might want to narrow their exit range to the $94-95 zone.

Picked on November 13 at $ 86.75
Change since picked: + 1.17
Earnings Date 01/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 24.2 million
 

Put Updates

ESSEX Property - ESS - cls: 101.57 chg: +1.32 stop: 105.55

ESS under performed the broader markets but shares still managed a 1.3% bounce. The rally ran into trouble near its descending 10-dma. The pattern is still bearish but we would hesitate to open new put positions given the bounce in the markets this week. Our target is support in the $94.00-93.00 range. The P&F chart is much more bearish with a $78 target.

Picked on November 20 at $101.75
Change since picked: - 0.18
Earnings Date 10/31/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 272 thousand

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Harley Davidson - HOG - cls: 48.02 change: +1.54 stop: 50.01

It is hard to ignore a 331-point gain in the DJIA or a 2.8% rally in the S&P 500. Shorts covered and HOG added 3.3% but shares remain near short-term resistance at $48.00 and under its 50-dma. Maybe tomorrow, when the rally euphoria wears off, investors will note that Standard & Poor's downgraded their credit rating on HOG due to slowing sales. We would wait for the bounce to stumble before jumping in with put positions. Overall we do not see any changes from our comments on Tuesday. Our target is the $41.00-40.00 range. The P&F chart is bearish with a $38 target.

Picked on November 27 at $ 46.48
Change since picked: + 1.54
Earnings Date 01/17/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.1 million
 

Strangle Updates

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Dropped Calls

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Dropped Puts

Celgene - CELG - close: 63.76 change: +1.42 stop: 63.01

It looks like the BTK biotech index is breaking out higher from a bearish channel. Considering the short-term reversal in the markets we're dropping CELG as a bearish candidate. We had been waiting for a breakdown under support at $60.00 but it has not yet occurred. Our suggested trigger was $59.90.

Picked on November xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 01/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.3 million

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Canadian Pacific - CP - cls: 65.63 change: +2.10 stop: 65.26

The oversold bounce (and short covering) in CP took another chunk out of CP's recent declines. The stock rallied 3.3% and broke out over round-number resistance at the $65.00 level. Shares actually traded over technical resistance at the 200-dma, probably hitting even more stops. Our stop loss was at $65.26 so the play has been closed.

Picked on November 19 at $ 62.85
Change since picked: + 2.78
Earnings Date 01/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 553 thousand

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J.B.Hunt - JBHT - close: 26.03 change: +1.51 stop: 26.11

A two-day crash in crude oil futures finally gave the transports something to rally about. Trucking stock JBHT soared over 6% (yup - short covering again) and hit our stop loss at $26.11 this afternoon. The overall trend in JBHT is still bearish and concerns about a slowing economy and a slow fourth quarter are not going to go away overnight.

Picked on November 20 at $ 24.95
Change since picked: + 1.08
Earnings Date 01/29/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.8 million

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PACCAR - PCAR - close: 50.62 change: +2.50 stop: 50.26

The market rally (and short covering) pushed PCAR to a 5.19% gain. Shares cleared resistance at the 50.00 level and hit our stop loss at $50.26. The larger trend is still bearish but short-term PCAR may have put in a bottom.

Picked on November 16 at $ 46.99 *triggered
Change since picked: + 3.64
Earnings Date 01/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.7 million
 

Dropped Strangles

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