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Call Updates

Constellation Energy - CEG - cls: 102.32 chg: +0.90 stop: 97.45

Another strong day for the markets helped lift CEG to another all-time high. CEG looks poised to keep climbing. We don't see any changes from our previous comments. Our target is the $107.50-110.00 range.

Picked on November 20 at $100.56
Change since picked: + 2.19
Earnings Date 01/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 million

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Energizer - ENR - close: 116.61 chg: +0.59 stop: 108.95

ENR did post another gain but the rally under performed the broader market. If there was anything significant in today's trading it was bulls buying the dip near $115. Our target is the $119.00-120.00 range

Picked on November 26 at $112.75 *triggered
Change since picked: + 3.86
Earnings Date 01/28/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 511 thousand

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Fannie Mae - FNM - close: 38.73 change: +2.60 stop: 29.85

Still no luck on an entry point. Another big day in the markets lifted FNM to a 7.19% gain. We may have missed the initial bounce we were trying to capture. The stock will be challenging resistance near $40.00 soon. It does look like FNM may have put in a significant bottom but we may need to re-evaluate an entry point. Keep an eye on the 10-dma. Currently our suggested entry point is the $33.50-32.50 zone.

Picked on December xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/08/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 14.6 million

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Holly Corp. - HOC - close: 47.75 change: -0.14 stop: 44.95

HOC under performed again. We are seriously considering just exiting early now and cutting our losses. It seems we might be better off to dump HOC and find another energy stock that is working. We're not suggesting new positions at this time.

Picked on December 03 at $ 50.58 *bad tick/gap open
Change since picked: - 2.83
Earnings Date 02/12/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 859 thousand

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Itron Inc. - ITRI - close: 81.22 change: +3.25 stop: 75.75*new*

It was shaping up to be just another day of ITRI churning sideways. That changed in the last two hours of trading when ITRI cleared the $79.00 level and didn't look back. We had an alternative entry point to buy a breakout over $80.00 with a trigger at $80.26. Now that the play is open our target is the $86.00-87.00 range near its 100-dma. Today's rally (+4%) pushed the P&F chart bullish target from $92 to $98. We would still consider new positions here near $81 but a dip back toward $80 would be preferred. FYI: Please note that we're adjusting the stop loss to $75.75.

Picked on December 06 at $ 80.26 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.96
Earnings Date 02/13/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 824 thousand

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JA Solar - JASO - close: 57.60 change: +2.38 stop: 52.49

JASO continues to show a lot of volatility but on the positive side traders bought the dip near $55 again. This is bullish. Readers can choose to open positions now or wait for another breakout over $60.00. This should be considered an aggressive play. More conservative traders might want to adjust their stops toward $54.00. Our target is the $69.00-70.00 range. The P&F chart is very bullish with an $88 target.

Picked on December 03 at $ 56.25 *triggered
Change since picked: + 1.35
Earnings Date 03/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.0 million

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Nat.Oilwell - NOV - close: 73.50 change: +1.72 stop: 66.90 *new*

NOV continues to rally and confirmed a breakout over its 50-dma. The next hurdle for the bulls is potential round-number resistance near $75.00. We are adjusting our stop loss to $66.90. Our target is the $79.00-80.00 range. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with an $84 target.

Picked on December 03 at $ 70.73
Change since picked: + 2.77
Earnings Date 02/06/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.5 million

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Nucor - NUE - close: 61.24 change: +1.44 stop: 56.75

As expected shares of NUE continued to rally. The breakout over $60.00 and its 200-dma is a bullish buy signal. We were suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $60.15. Now that the play is open our target is the $64.90-65.00 range. Today's move over $61.00 has produced a brand new P&F chart buy signal with a $70 target.

Picked on December 06 at $ 60.15 *triggered
Change since picked: + 1.09
Earnings Date 01/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.6 million

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Union Pacific - UNP - close: 134.15 change: +4.85 stop: 123.99

We did not have to wait very long for the bullish breakout in UNP. The stock rallied sharply from the open and hit our suggested trigger to buy calls at $130.50. UNP hit an intraday high of $134.88 before paring its gains a bit. Our initial target is the $139.00-140.00 range. The P&F chart is already bullish with a $138 target. If you missed the entry point this morning then look for a dip back toward $130 (maybe the 132-130 zone).

Picked on December 06 at $130.50 *triggered
Change since picked: + 3.65
Earnings Date 01/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.3 million

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ExxonMobil - XOM - close: 91.44 chg: +1.52 stop: 86.75 *new*

XOM displayed relative strength today with a 1.7% gain and a breakout over resistance near $90.00 and its 50-dma. This is a good sign for the bulls and readers now have a decision to make. Do you exit at $92.50 or closer to $95.00? We are planning to exit at $92.50 but given the market's recent bullishness it would be very tempting to hold out and try and exit in the $94.50-95.00 zone instead. We are adjusting our stop loss to $86.75.

Picked on November 13 at $ 86.75
Change since picked: + 4.69
Earnings Date 01/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 24.2 million
 

Put Updates

Boeing - BA - close: 91.78 change: +1.08 stop: 95.01

In a market rising this sharply the best we can ask from our bearish plays is relative weakness and that's what we got from BA today. The stock added 1.19% and did so on below average volume. Shares are still struggling with the $92 level and the intraday high was $92.44. We are not suggesting new bearish positions at this time and honestly more conservative traders may want to think about an early exit to avoid further losses. Our target is the $85.50-85.00 region just under the November lows.

Picked on December 04 at $ 91.43 *triggered/gap down
Change since picked: + 0.35
Earnings Date 01/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.0 million

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Celgene - CELG - close: 60.10 change: +0.17 stop: 64.05

CELG also under performed the market today with a minor 0.28% gain and on below average volume. We don't see any changes from our previous comments. We would watch for a failed rally in the $61-62 region as a new bearish entry point for puts. Our first target is the $55.50-55.00 range. Our second target is the $51.00-50.00 region. More conservative traders will want to consider a tighter stop loss.

Picked on December 04 at $ 59.49 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.61
Earnings Date 01/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.2 million

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Harley Davidson - HOG - cls: 49.05 change: +1.00 stop: 50.01

We warned you that HOG look poised to rebound and the stock added 2% and closed over the $49.00 level today. Wait and watch for a failed rally near $50.00 if you're looking for a new bearish entry point. Given the market's bullish attitude recently we would hesitate to open new put plays. Our target is the $41.00-40.00 range. The P&F chart is bearish with a $38 target.

Picked on November 27 at $ 46.48
Change since picked: + 2.57
Earnings Date 01/17/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.1 million
 

Strangle Updates

None
 

Dropped Calls

Flowserve - FLS - cls: 98.59 change: +6.20 stop: 88.45

Target achieved and exceeded. It looks like the news out last night (see yesterday's update) about FLS winning a deal in Qatar was bigger than we thought. The stock soared this morning and hit an intraday high of $101.58. Our target was the $99.50-100.00 range. We would keep an eye on FLS for a dip and bounce in the $94-95 zone.

Picked on November 25 at $ 93.04
Change since picked: + 5.55
Earnings Date 02/28/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 724 thousand
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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