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Call Updates

Constellation Energy - CEG - cls: 103.43 chg: +1.11 stop: 97.45

CEG out performed the major market averages with a 1% gain and another new all-time high. Shares of CEG are up six out of the last seven weeks (and up five weeks in a row) so it may be time to expect a little profit taking. A dip back toward the $100 zone could be used as a new bullish entry point. More conservative traders might be able to inch up their stop a bit. The Point & Figure chart has produced a triple-top breakout buy signal. Our target is the $107.50-110.00 range. FYI: CEG is due to present at an analyst conference on December 13th.

Suggested Options:
If CEG provides another bullish entry point we would suggest the January calls.

Picked on November 20 at $100.56
Change since picked: + 3.30
Earnings Date 01/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 million

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Energizer - ENR - close: 116.80 chg: +0.19 stop: 109.95 *new*

ENR is still creeping higher but after a week's worth of gains the stock might be due for a little rest. We remain bullish on ENR but would look for a dip back into the $114-113 zone as a new bullish entry point. The first level of support should be broken resistance at $115 and then at the rising 10-dma near $113.50. Please note that we are adjusting our stop loss to $109.95. Our target is the $119.00-120.00 range. FYI: The P&F chart has a very bullish pattern called a bullish triangle breakout and it is forecasting a $157 target.

Suggested Options:
If ENR provides a new bullish entry point we would suggest the January or February calls.

Picked on November 26 at $112.75 *triggered
Change since picked: + 4.05
Earnings Date 01/28/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 511 thousand

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Holly Corp. - HOC - close: 48.21 change: +0.46 stop: 44.95

We are still not very enthusiastic about HOC. The stock did not do much this week with a 25-cent loss for the entire week. If it was not for the bad tick on December 3rd we would have been triggered on the dip back into the $47.00-46.00 range. We are going to keep the play active on the newsletter for now but we're not suggesting new positions. If the markets see any profit taking next week then HOC will likely fall back toward support near $45.00. At this point we'd rather buy a bounce near $45.00 or wait for a real breakout over $50.00. Readers might be more excited to just find another stock in the energy sector that has been showing more strength. Our target on HOC is the $54.75-55.00 range.

Suggested Options:
We are not suggesting new positions in HOC at this time.

Picked on December 03 at $ 50.58 *bad tick/gap open
Change since picked: - 2.37
Earnings Date 02/12/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 859 thousand

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Itron Inc. - ITRI - close: 84.34 change: +3.12 stop: 77.85*new*

More conservative traders might want to consider taking some early profits off the table right now. ITRI just produced two back-to-back $3 rallies. The breakout over $80.00 is very bullish and is also a breakout from a two-week trading range. We are adjusting our stop loss higher to $77.85. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $86.00-87.00 range near its 100-dma. Last week's rally has pushed the target on the P&F chart from $92 to $107.

Suggested Options:
We are not suggesting new positions in ITRI at this time.

Picked on December 06 at $ 80.26 *triggered
Change since picked: + 4.08
Earnings Date 02/13/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 824 thousand

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JA Solar - JASO - close: 63.58 change: +5.97 stop: 54.49 *new*

Solar energy stocks grew hot again on Friday after a couple of analyst upgrades in the sector. YGE and SPWR were both upgraded on Friday and JASO had its earnings estimates raised by one analyst. Shares of JASO soared more than 10% and did so on above average volume. More conservative traders should strongly consider taking some profits off the table right here. We're going to add a conservative target in the $64.50-65.00 range. The $69.00-70.00 target will be our more aggressive target. Please note that we are adjusting the stop loss to $54.49, just under last week's low. This remains an aggressive play. After Friday's big move it's only natural to look for some profit taking on Monday. We're not suggesting new positions at this time.

Suggested Options:
We're not suggesting new positions at this time.

Picked on December 03 at $ 56.25 *triggered
Change since picked: + 7.33
Earnings Date 03/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.0 million

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Nat.Oilwell - NOV - close: 73.52 change: +0.02 stop: 66.90

Crude oil futures slipped more than 2% on Friday but shares of NOV managed to hold on to its weekly gains. Traders bought the dip near $72 and added another notch on the bullish trend of higher lows. It wouldn't be out of the ordinary to see a little profit taking and readers could use a dip back into the $71.00-70.00 zone as a new bullish entry point. Broken resistance at the 50-dma and then again near $70.00 should be new support. Our target is the $79.00-80.00 range. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with an $84 target.

Suggested Options:
If NOV provided a new bullish entry point we would suggest the January or February calls.

Picked on December 03 at $ 70.73
Change since picked: + 2.79
Earnings Date 02/06/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.5 million

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Nucor - NUE - close: 61.98 change: +0.74 stop: 56.75

NUE has produced a very strong couple of weeks. We remain bullish on the stock above $60.00 and resistance at its 200-dma. However, shares may be due for a little rest. Look for a dip back toward $60.00 as another bullish entry point to buy calls. We're going to keep our stop loss under last week's low. Our target is the $64.90-65.00 range. The bullish breakout in just the last couple of days has produced a new P&F chart buy signal with a $73 target.

Suggested Options:
If NUE provides us another entry point we would suggest the January calls.

Picked on December 06 at $ 60.15 *triggered
Change since picked: + 1.83
Earnings Date 01/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.6 million

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Union Pacific - UNP - close: 134.84 chg: +0.69 stop: 126.95*new*

UNP steamed to another new all-time high on Friday. The stock hit $136.74 before paring its gains into the close. We remain bullish on the stock following the breakout over resistance at $130 but we're not suggesting new positions at this time. More conservative traders may want to take a little money off the table right here. After last week's gains it would be only natural to see a little profit taking. Our initial target is the $139.00-140.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $138 target. Please note that we're adjusting the stop loss to $126.95. More conservative traders may want to put their stop closer to $129-130.

Suggested Options:
We are not suggesting new positions at this time.

Picked on December 06 at $130.50 *triggered
Change since picked: + 4.34
Earnings Date 01/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.3 million

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ExxonMobil - XOM - close: 91.50 chg: +0.06 stop: 86.75

Crude oil futures hit some more profit taking on Friday and lost 2%. Yet shares of XOM posted another gain and held on to its gains for the week. The recent rally in the stock has produced a triple-top breakout buy signal on the Point & Figure chart with a $109 target. We are only aiming for the $92.50-95.00 zone. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher or just narrow their exit to the $94.50-95.00 region. If you study the weekly chart it would be very tempting to just aim for the $99-100 zone. We're not suggesting new positions at this time but nimble traders could try buying a dip or bounce near $90.00 again (and aim for $95). Meanwhile more conservative traders might want to tighten their stops toward $88. Those same conservative types might want to take some money off the table right here with a little profit taking of their own.

Suggested Options:
We're not suggesting new positions in XOM at this time.

Picked on November 13 at $ 86.75
Change since picked: + 4.75
Earnings Date 01/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 24.2 million
 

Put Updates

Boeing - BA - close: 93.16 change: +1.38 stop: 95.01

The larger trend in BA is still bearish but Friday saw another round of the bounce from $90.00. We warned readers this could happen and suggested that more conservative types might want to bail out early. Technical signals are a real mix of bullish and bearish signals. Even the P&F chart, while bearish and pointing to a $75 target, might suggest a cloudy forecast. At this point we would wait for the bounce to fail before even considering new bearish positions. BA should begin to run into resistance in the $94.50-95.00 zone. We are making a tiny adjustment to our stop loss from $95.01 to $95.05. Our target is the $85.50-85.00 region just under the November lows. For the real technical traders out there... did you notice that the 50-dma has just crossed under the 200-dma? Some traders have gone so far as to nickname this the "crossover of death". FYI: BA has an important conference call scheduled for Tuesday, December 11th at 10:00 a.m. Eastern to update investors on its 787 Dreamliner production schedule.

Suggested Options:
We are not suggesting new bearish positions at this time.

Picked on December 04 at $ 91.43 *triggered/gap down
Change since picked: + 1.73
Earnings Date 01/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.0 million

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Celgene - CELG - close: 57.36 change: -2.74 stop: 61.75*new*

CELG has rally confirmed the breakdown now. Shares plunged more than 4.5% and on strong volume to close at new three-month lows. We are adjusting our stop loss to $61.75, just above the 200-dma. We have two targets. Our first target is the $55.50-55.00 range. Our second target is the $51.00-50.00 region.

Suggested Options:
If CELG provides another bearish entry point we would suggest the January puts.

Picked on December 04 at $ 59.49 *triggered
Change since picked: - 2.13
Earnings Date 01/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.2 million
 

Strangle Updates

None
 

Dropped Calls

Fannie Mae - FNM - close: 37.04 change: -1.70 stop: 29.85

After discussing the trading action in FNM we've decided to drop FNM as a bullish candidate - at least for now. The stock has already hit our initial target without providing the entry point we were looking for. We would keep an eye on it down the road. The first test of support will be the 10-dma near $34.50. The stock never hit our suggested trigger to open positions so we drop it unopened.

Picked on December xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/08/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 14.6 million
 

Dropped Puts

Harley Davidson - HOG - cls: 48.99 change: -0.06 stop: 50.01

We have been warning readers that HOG looked ready to bounce back toward the $50.00 level. Our problem on Friday was that our stop loss was too tight. In hindsight we would have placed the stop loss at $50.11, just above the November 14th high. HOG hit $50.04 intraday and closed the play for us at $50.01. Sadly this looks like the sort of failed rally pattern we would consider as a new entry point for bearish plays. More nimble traders may want to initiate new positions now and use a stop loss at $50.11 instead.

Picked on November 27 at $ 46.48
Change since picked: + 2.51
Earnings Date 01/17/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.1 million
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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