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Call Updates

Aluminum Corp. of China - ACH - cls: 57.22 chg: -3.16 stop: 54.45

Believe it or not we're still on the sidelines with ACH. The stock lost more than 5.2% during Tuesday's market fed-induced sell-off. Yet the low for the day was $56.65. We're suggesting readers buy a dip in ACH in the $56.50-55.00 zone. Odds are pretty good that the market and ACH will see some follow through tomorrow morning so we expect ACH to hit our trigger to buy calls tomorrow. More conservative traders may want to wait for signs of a bounce before initiating positions. Our official entry will be $56.50 for now. If triggered our target is the $64.50-65.00 range but we might adjust that as the 50-dma ($66.20) continues to slide lower. FYI: The Point & Figure chart has a $75 target.

Picked on December xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 03/08/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.8 million

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Constellation Energy - CEG - cls: 101.82 chg: -1.34 stop: 97.45

After trading near new all-time highs this week it's not a surprise to see some profit taking in CEG. The stock actually out performed the market by only losing 1.29%. Traders bought the initial dip near CEG's rising 10-dma but we suspect the stock will dip closer to $100. A dip back toward the $100 zone could be used as a new bullish entry point. More conservative traders might be able to inch up their stop a bit. The Point & Figure chart has produced a triple-top breakout buy signal. Our target is the $107.50-110.00 range. FYI: CEG is due to present at an analyst conference on December 13th.

Picked on November 20 at $100.56
Change since picked: + 1.26
Earnings Date 01/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 million

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Energizer - ENR - close: 116.45 chg: +1.42 stop: 109.95

ENR displayed some impressive relative strength with a new six-week high and by out performing the market with a 1.2% gain. Volume came in above average on the rally, which is normally a good sign. Our target is the $119.00-120.00 range. FYI: The P&F chart has a very bullish pattern called a bullish triangle breakout and it is forecasting a $157 target.

Picked on November 26 at $112.75 *triggered
Change since picked: + 3.70
Earnings Date 01/28/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 511 thousand

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Excel Maritime - EXM - close: 50.14 change: -4.23 stop: 46.45

Ouch! The market giveth and the market taketh away. Yesterday EXM rallied $4.21. Today the stock gave it all back. Shares actually produced an intraday failed rally near $55.00 twice during today's session. Not only is that bearish but it was followed up with a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. EXM is holding near round-number support at $50.00 and trading near its 10 and 100-dma. Conservative traders may want to exit early to cut their losses. If there is any market follow through lower tomorrow we would expect EXM to dip toward $48.00-47.50. Wait for signs of a bounce before considering new bullish positions. Stocks in this group can be volatile and we would consider this a higher-risk, more aggressive play. Our target is the $57.50-60.00 range but we might have to adjust it for the 50-dma (currently at $59.29). The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $98 target.

Picked on December 09 at $ 50.16
Change since picked: - 0.02
Earnings Date 03/13/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million

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Holly Corp. - HOC - close: 46.83 change: -1.51 stop: 44.95

Oil stocks got hammered just like everything else in spite of a $2.00 rally in crude oil futures. HOC produced a bearish failed rally pattern and broke its short-term trend of higher lows. More conservative traders may want to exit early now to cut their losses. We would expect shares to dip toward round-number support near $45.00 soon. Wait for signs of a bounce before considering new bullish positions. Our target on HOC is the $54.75-55.00 range.

Picked on December 03 at $ 50.58 *bad tick/gap open
Change since picked: - 3.75
Earnings Date 02/12/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 859 thousand

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Itron Inc. - ITRI - close: 79.14 change: -3.42 stop: 77.85

The profit taking in ITRI took an ill-tempered turn following the rate cut news. Shares of ITRI just started gapping down as traders rushed to lock in recent profits. The stock has now erased its gains from the recent bullish breakout and ITRI has now closed under what should have been support at the $80.00 mark. ITRI has also broken short-term support at the 10-dma. The next level of support could be the 200-dma near $78.70. We would wait for a new rally over $80.25 before considering new bullish positions at this time. Our target is the $86.00-87.00 range near its 100-dma. Last week's rally has pushed the target on the P&F chart from $92 to $107.

Picked on December 06 at $ 80.26 *triggered
Change since picked: - 1.12
Earnings Date 02/13/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 824 thousand

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JA Solar - JASO - close: 61.52 change: -4.82 stop: 56.25

As of yesterday's close JASO was up more than $10 from our trigger and today's sell-off gave back about half of those "gains". Broken resistance near $60 should be new support and traders were starting to buy the dip near $60.50 this afternoon. We're not suggesting new positions at this time but technically a bounce near $60 would look like a new entry point. The stock has already hit our conservative target in the $64.50-65.00 range. Our next, more aggressive target is the $69.00-70.00 zone. This remains an aggressive play.

Picked on December 03 at $ 56.25 *triggered
Change since picked: + 5.27
Earnings Date 03/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.0 million

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Nat.Oilwell - NOV - close: 72.38 change: -1.54 stop: 66.90

NOV gave back about half of our unrealized gains today. Oil stocks were caught up in the selling frenzy and NOV lost about 2%. Shares created a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern, which should put traders on the alert. Odds are pretty good that NOV will see a dip toward its 10-dma or the $70.00 level. Wait for signs of a bounce before considering new bullish positions. More conservative traders might want to use a tighter stop loss closer to $70.00. Our target is the $79.00-80.00 range. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with an $84 target.

Picked on December 03 at $ 70.73
Change since picked: + 1.65
Earnings Date 02/06/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.5 million

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Nucor - NUE - close: 59.20 change: -2.52 stop: 56.75

The reversal in NUE today looks pretty nasty. Short-term technicals have naturally turned bearish after its recent run up from the November lows and now today's 4% decline. Today's breakdown under $60.00 and its 200-dma is also negative. We're not suggesting new positions at this time and more conservative traders may want to exit early now. Our target is the $64.90-65.00 range. The bullish breakout in just the last couple of days has produced a new P&F chart buy signal with a $73 target.

Picked on December 06 at $ 60.15 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.95
Earnings Date 01/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.6 million

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Research In Motion - RIMM - cls: 97.87 chg: -4.51 stop: 94.90*new*

The post-Fed market sell-off finally pushed RIMM into our suggested entry zone. We've been suggesting readers buy a dip at $100.00 or between $100 and its rising 100-dma (near $97). Today's move has triggered the play. However, we're making an important change. RIMM should have support at the 100-dma (97.25) and at the November low ($96.80) and more conservative traders will want to keep their stop loss at $96.75. We are adjusting our stop loss to $94.90 to give RIMM a little more wiggle room since the stock can see some volatility. If shares breakdown under $95.00 then readers may want to consider buying puts and targeting a decline near $80.00. Given the market's bearish tone today we would wait for some sort of bounce (maybe even back over $100) before considering new bullish positions. I have to admit that this will take some guts to buy today's dip near the 100-dma. The action in RIMM has been very bearish lately and we made note of that in our initial play description. Conservative traders will probably want to avoid this one until we see some signs of strength. Our target is the $109.50-110.00 range. More aggressive traders could aim for the 50-dma, currently near $113.40.

Picked on December 11 at $100.00 *triggered
Change since picked: - 2.13
Earnings Date 12/20/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 32.2 million

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Union Pacific - UNP - close: 130.64 chg: -4.62 stop: 126.95

This afternoon there was a stampede to lock in profits and UNP gave back almost all of its recent gains. Shares closed near broken resistance and what should be support at $130.00. More conservative traders will want to consider raising their stops closer to $130 but the markets will probably see some follow through tomorrow morning so be careful. Wait for signs of a bounce before considering new bullish positions. Our initial target is the $139.00-140.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $138 target. Please note that we're adjusting the stop loss to $126.95.

Picked on December 06 at $130.50 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.14
Earnings Date 01/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.3 million
 

Put Updates

Boeing - BA - close: 88.70 change: -3.94 stop: 94.01 *new*

BA is performing as we hoped it might. The stock under performed the market with a 4.25% decline and on big volume. Shares broke down under short-term support near $90.00 again. More conservative traders might be tempted to lock in some gains near the November lows but we're aiming for the $85.50-85.00 range. Please note that we're adjusting the stop loss to $94.01. There did not appear to be any earth-shaking news come out of BA's conference call about its Dreamliner progress.

Picked on December 04 at $ 91.43 *triggered/gap down
Change since picked: - 2.73
Earnings Date 01/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.0 million
 

Strangle Updates

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Dropped Calls

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Dropped Puts

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Dropped Strangles

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