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Call Updates

Aluminum Corp. of China - ACH - cls: 57.00 chg: -0.22 stop: 54.45

The market's slow drift lower today eventually pushed ACH into our suggested entry range. The stock hit an intraday low of $56.03. We were suggesting calls on a pull back into the $56.50-55.00 range. Now that the play is open our target is the $64.50-65.00 range. However, considering the market's bearish attitude the past couple of days readers may want to wait for a bounce from the $55.00 level or look for a new rise past $59.00 or $60.00 before initiating new positions. We're not very enthusiastic about bullish positions at this time.

Picked on December 12 at $ 56.50
Change since picked: + 0.50
Earnings Date 03/08/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.8 million

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Constellation Energy - CEG - cls: 103.15 chg: +1.33 stop: 97.45

CEG reversed yesterday's loss but continues to struggle with resistance near $104. Traders bought the late day dip near $102, which is encouraging. More conservative traders might be able to inch up their stop a bit. The Point & Figure chart has produced a triple-top breakout buy signal. Our target is the $107.50-110.00 range. FYI: CEG is due to present at an analyst conference on December 13th.

Picked on November 20 at $100.56
Change since picked: + 2.59
Earnings Date 01/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 million

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Energizer - ENR - close: 117.45 chg: +1.00 stop: 109.95

ENR almost hit our target this morning. Shares popped higher with the market and traded to $118.88 before paring its gains. Our target is the $119.00-120.00 range. We did notice that ENR fared better than most during the afternoon weakness and the stock looks poised for more gains tomorrow. More conservative traders may want to raise their stops toward the $112 zone. FYI: The P&F chart has a very bullish pattern called a bullish triangle breakout and it is forecasting a $157 target.

Picked on November 26 at $112.75 *triggered
Change since picked: + 4.70
Earnings Date 01/28/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 511 thousand

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Excel Maritime - EXM - close: 52.79 change: +2.65 stop: 46.45

Did I mention that EXM was a volatile stock? The stock hit an intraday high of $53.75 this morning and eventually closed up with a 5.28% gain. We would consider this a higher-risk, more aggressive play. Our target is the $57.50-60.00 range but we might have to adjust it for the 50-dma (currently at $59.29). The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $98 target.

Picked on December 09 at $ 50.16
Change since picked: + 2.63
Earnings Date 03/13/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million

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Holly Corp. - HOC - close: 47.93 change: +1.10 stop: 44.95

HOC looks like it's going no where fast and that's bad news for option holders. The stock did pop this morning but struggled with resistance in the $48.50-49.00 region. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target on HOC is the $54.75-55.00 range.

Picked on December 03 at $ 50.58 *bad tick/gap open
Change since picked: - 2.65
Earnings Date 02/12/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 859 thousand

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Itron Inc. - ITRI - close: 81.67 change: +2.53 stop: 77.85

ITRI recouped a good portion of yesterday's losses with today's 3.19% gain. Traders were buying the afternoon dip near $80.00 and this looks like a bullish entry point. However, we want to caution readers that this isn't the strongest environment for starting new bullish plays. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops toward $80. Our target is the $86.00-87.00 range near its 100-dma. Last week's rally has pushed the target on the P&F chart from $92 to $107.

Picked on December 06 at $ 80.26 *triggered
Change since picked: + 1.41
Earnings Date 02/13/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 824 thousand

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JA Solar - JASO - close: 61.98 change: +0.46 stop: 56.25

JASO turned in another volatile session. The stock had a $5.00 range intraday. Traders did buy the dip near its rising 10-dma, which is a good sign. This almost looks like a new bullish entry point but we would hesitate to open new plays here given the market's bearish tone. The stock has already hit our conservative target in the $64.50-65.00 range. Our next, more aggressive target is the $69.00-70.00 zone. This remains an aggressive play.

Picked on December 03 at $ 56.25 *triggered
Change since picked: + 5.73
Earnings Date 03/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.0 million

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Nat.Oilwell - NOV - close: 75.03 change: +2.65 stop: 68.90*new*

NOV hit a new four-week high at $75.54 and closed with a 3.6% gain. The stock continues to look strong. More conservative traders may want to consider taking a little money off the table right now. We are adjusting our stop loss to $68.90. More conservative traders might want to use a tighter stop loss closer to $70.00. Our target is the $79.00-80.00 range. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with an $84 target.

Picked on December 03 at $ 70.73
Change since picked: + 4.30
Earnings Date 02/06/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.5 million

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Nucor - NUE - close: 61.38 change: +2.18 stop: 56.75

NUE's bounce back above $60 and its 200-dma is bullish but we would be cautious about starting new positions. Our target is the $64.90-65.00 range. The bullish breakout in just the last couple of days has produced a new P&F chart buy signal with a $73 target.

Picked on December 06 at $ 60.15 *triggered
Change since picked: + 1.23
Earnings Date 01/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.6 million

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Research In Motion - RIMM - cls: 100.21 chg: +2.32 stop: 96.75*new*

RIMM's rebound this morning seemed a little anemic compared to the big rally in the market averages. Then again RIMM did not see the same intraday sell-off either. This remains an aggressive entry point. Readers can buy calls now but it might pay off to wait for a breakout above its short-term trendline of lower highs, which looks like it would be about $101.50. We are adjusting the stop loss back to $96.75. If shares breakdown under $95.00 then readers may want to consider buying puts and targeting a decline near $80.00. Our target is the $109.50-110.00 range. More aggressive traders could aim for the 50-dma, currently near $113.40.

Picked on December 11 at $100.00 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.21
Earnings Date 12/20/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 32.2 million

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Union Pacific - UNP - close: 132.57 chg: +1.93 stop: 126.95

UNP's intraday high of $137.56 looks like a bad tick. A quick glance at the intraday chart shows that UNP never traded over $136. Go back to the intraday chart and you'll see that buyers really stepped in to buy the dip near $130 and volume surged on the late day bounce. More conservative traders will want to consider raising their stops closer to $130. Our initial target is the $139.00-140.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $138 target.

Picked on December 06 at $130.50 *triggered
Change since picked: + 2.07
Earnings Date 01/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.3 million
 

Put Updates

Agrium - AGU - close: 59.09 change: -0.57 stop: 65.01

AGU is off to a decent start. The morning pop quickly failed and shares under performed the market with another decline today. We don't see any changes from our previous comments. Our target is the $55.10-55.00 zone but more aggressive traders may want to aim for the rising 100-dma closer to $52.00. FYI: The P&F chart is still bullish from the late November bounce. More conservative traders might want to use a tighter stop loss near $64.

Picked on December 11 at $ 59.66
Change since picked: - 0.57
Earnings Date 01/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million

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Boeing - BA - close: 86.92 change: -1.78 stop: 93.26 *new*

BA almost hit our target today. Shares plunged to $85.55 and on big volume after the stock was downgraded this morning. Our target is the $85.50-85.00 range. More conservative traders will want to seriously consider taking some money off the table right now. The intraday action this afternoon suggests BA is due for an oversold bounce tomorrow. Please note that we're adjusting the stop loss to $93.26.

Picked on December 04 at $ 91.43 *triggered/gap down
Change since picked: - 4.51
Earnings Date 01/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.0 million

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Garmin - GRMN - close: 101.73 chg: -3.06 stop: 112.55

GRMN continues to under perform. The stock traded higher to $107.82 this morning but quickly turned lower and closed under a cloud of significant moving averages, which is bearish. Volume was rising on the sell-off, which is also bearish. However, we want to note that the stock did produce what appears to be an intraday bullish double-bottom near $99.50 and we would expect an oversold bounce tomorrow. A failed rally in the $105-108 zone can be used as a new bearish entry point for puts. Remember, this is a very volatile stock and this should be considered an aggressive play. We have two targets. Our first target is the $96.00-95.00 zone. Our second target is the $91.00-90.00 zone.

Picked on December 11 at $104.78
Change since picked: - 3.06
Earnings Date 02/14/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.2 million

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Sears Holding - SHLD - cls: 110.02 chg: -0.26 stop: 117.55

SHLD followed the major averages both higher and lower but the afternoon bounce in SHLD wasn't very convincing. The stock under performed by closing in the red. We don't see any changes from our previous comments and would continue to suggest new puts at this time. We have two targets. Our first target is the $100.50-100.00 range. Our second more-aggressive target is the $92.50-90.00 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $78 target.

Picked on December 11 at $110.28
Change since picked: - 0.26
Earnings Date 10/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.3 million
 

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

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Lehman Brothers - LEH - close: 61.82 chg: +0.68 stop: n/a

We were fortunate today that with all the market volatility shares of LEH actually crossed the $60.00 mark giving us a better entry point to open strangle positions. The company is due to report earnings tomorrow morning. Analysts expect a profit of $1.44 a share but what the market really wants to know is any new info on LEH's exposure to the subprime implosion. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. The options we suggested for our strangle were the December $65 call (LES-LM) and the December $55 put (LES-XK). Our estimated cost was $2.35 and we want to sell if either option hits $4.45.

Picked on December 11 at $ 61.14
Change since picked: + 0.68
Earnings Date 12/13/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.3 million
 

Dropped Calls

None
 

Dropped Puts

Cleveland Cliffs - CLF - close: 99.47 chg: +3.28 stop: 100.10

Technically we would have been "stopped" out this morning but shares actually opened at $100.51 before any of our readers would have had the opportunity to open positions. We are closing the play but will keep an eye on it for future entry points. After a $25 rally the stock is overdue for a correction.

Picked on December 11 at $ 96.19
Change since picked: + 3.28
Earnings Date 02/21/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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